Seneca Growth Capital Vct Share Discussion Threads

[barryrog] 03/9/2004 10:17

morning hawk,
this 'smacks' of MMs manipulating the price.
keep it depressed,then acceptance of a bid at 15p (40% above current price) suddenly doesn't look to bad.
this co. would be a steal at anything under 20p.

[ukhawk] 03/9/2004 09:22

Difficult to tell what are buys and sells from the trade report, but certainly a lot of sells ! The fact is even if this was a "done deal" last w/e it's unlikely there would have been an RNS this week so, apart from RAB, I can't see why people would sell. Makes sense for HYG to take their time now they're in play and see who else is interested.

[charlie] 02/9/2004 23:40

"EdmondJ - 1 Sep'04 - 08:19 - 192 of 230

Where is this RNS? Not on UK wire HYG thread for example."

That's because it's a Rule 8 announcement and UK-wire filters these. It doesn't provide a complete RNS feed. For example if you look at



the small print at the foot of the page says:

"NAV announcements, Rule 8 announcements, EMM Disclosure and FRN Variable Rate Fix announcements are filtered from this site."

[aderemi] 02/9/2004 16:37

The sector in general seems to seeing some activity.

Today the Countryside Properties said it had received a preliminary approach, led by the Chairman of Countryside, Alan Cherry, with the support of executive management, which may lead to a cash offer being made for the Company.

[barryrog] 02/9/2004 10:45

morning edmund,
just endorsing your earlier comments and making some of my own.
without doubt,Swayslands is the 'jewel in the crown' and is anticipated to
generate a quantum leap in profits from 2006 onwards.
however,it does have an extensive land bank in addition to swayslands and has recently secured approval to develop a 133,000 sq ft site at Whitecroft Hospital on the isle of wight as well as 20,000 sq ft of office space. this is estimated to generate a potential value in excess of three times the carrying value.
the latest concensus estimates,taken from ft.com are as follows:-

y/e sept 2004 y/e sept 2005

profit £5.4m £8.8m
e.p.s. 3.1p 5.0p
div. 0.6p 1.0p

it was on this basis last week,together with the real NAV, that the group were recommended as buys by "shares magazine" and "money observer".
these recommendations were made before the co. announced it was involved in takeover talks.
i spoke to the co. yesterday and they told me that it was the upward share price movement as a result of these buy recommendations that left them no alternative than to report they were in takeover talks earlier than they had planned to do so.
so even without swayslands, ongoing projects and others in the pipeline are generating the 2004/2005 projected numbers. also considering that this year alone they have reduced their debt levels by 35%, on fundamentals alone this co. is grossly undervalued.
as a worst case scenario,if the co. started experiencing significant cash flow problems it could sell swaysland for an estimated £15m (book value £7m) which is more than the total capital value of the co. as it stands today.


.

[dunnie] 02/9/2004 10:10

Barryrog,
if you don't mind me asking when did you buy in and at what price.
Regards

[barryrog] 02/9/2004 10:07

morning greengiant,
i guess with the shares at 8.5p early last week that weak holders are banking their profit although volume sizes are minute.
the mms are clearly depressing the share price at the moment and that is clearly a good thing during the takeover discussions.

[greengiant] 02/9/2004 09:43

Don't know why people are selling (?)

gg

[dunnie] 02/9/2004 08:20

Barryrog,
i was not making out HYG was worthless without RAB as they have significant assets, but it is a undeniable fact that the RAB investment gave them valuable breathing space. If you check back on the posts i posted here a long time before you invested after Edmond Jackson wrote a article on Honeygrove in the Sunday Telegraph he pointed out long before any shares magazine that HYG was "in play" because of RAB's involement, after all going to hedge funds would be your last "port of call" if your company was strapped for cash, you know they are going to "cane you" on the terms by the mere nature of the beast.
Anyway the best of luck with your investment and lets not start dragging the board down to some stupid "tit for tat" slanging match, what benefits you benefits me in this case.
Regards

[edmondj] 02/9/2004 08:15

I don't think HYG would be worthless without RAB's £3m, they just would not have been able to progress Swaylands without equity financing. The group has plenty other projects/plots though Swaylands is key to the next 4 years' (hoped for) profits transformation.

[barryrog] 02/9/2004 08:03

good morning Dunnie,
ref my post,it says specifically "i have no problem with you or anyone else posting here......"
the reason i reacted in the first place was to your comment that "HYG would be worthless without the RAB investment".
all i have asked,with respect to HYG shareholder sensitivity, is that you refrain from posting comments that infer that HYG is no more than a RAB asset play.it may be to you,it is not to them.
rgds

[dunnie] 02/9/2004 00:49

Barryrog,
for the record my RAB shares are down 37.21%,now thats honesty for you.
Regards

[dunnie] 02/9/2004 00:45

Barryrog,
if you read my posting correctly you would understand that i meant without the £3m we invested HYG would have had difficulty trading at that time.I don't want to get into my shares are doing better than your shares type of argument, but for the record my RAB's shares are above the placing price of .25p today they stand at .29 bid which is slightly below the 20% yours have risen, i congratulate you on the astute acquisition of your shares just prior to a announcement, whilst pointing out a profit is not a profit until you sell. With regards to why i didn't sell at 60p, well i did sell some at above 60p but in the interests of total honesty i bought back at various levels on the way down, i think i was using the immortal words "this looks like the bottom". I also bought some the other week at around 25/26 so they are climbing nicely on the back of this bid speculation. Some of the points i have posted with regard to the 2yr warrants i think are valid points and i was merely pointing out that that may be the reason for RAB selling some shares, i thought it may ease some concerns holders of HYG may have when seeing the announcement that RAB had sold some shares. Also i posted about it may be a good time for HYG to sell out because the big building companies are looking for land because the local councils are putting the blocks on any new planning applications up and down the country,land with planning approvals are at a premium at the moment.
I am not here to p... anyone off but i'm also not prepared to be p..... off by you.If bulletin boards are used correctly they can be great for information and help so lets try and keep it that way, otherwise next time you want £3m i am going to tell you not to come to RAB for it, we gave you £3m and then you tell us we can't post on your board,bloody cheek if you ask me.
Regards

[barryrog] 01/9/2004 22:48

Dunnie,
my investment in HYG was only made early last week and it has alrady risen by nearly 20%; so far from being worthless i am more than happy with my situation.
i would suggest rather better than yours in RAB whos' shares i believe have fallen by 50% in the last few months and are now languishing at 20% below their issue price.any reason you didn't sell at 60p or have you since bought in at a higher price than they are currently worth?
your concern with RAB's involvement in HYG where RAB has a stake of £3.4m but are managing funds in excess of £1.5b is touching but is hardly likely to have a material impact on their numbers.
i have no problem with you or anyone else posting here but at least show some sensitivity to HYG holders who use this thread and stop constantly posting a RAB shareholders point of view. that surely is for your own BB.

[aderemi] 01/9/2004 22:22

ok lads, easy now.
What about holders in both RAB and HYG. Well we kinda stuck in the middle.
Cheer up lads.

[edmondj] 01/9/2004 20:40

Oh dear, Barry may not be amused!

[dunnie] 01/9/2004 20:30

Barryrog,
no ones hi-jacking the thread, as RAB hold 23% of Honeygrove we have as much right and interest to be here as you.In fact you could argue without RAB's investment your investment could have been worthless.
Regards

[edmondj] 01/9/2004 20:04

It is amusing though, linked to that advice: "Shareholders should take no action" with last week's announcement, that this was totally ignored by Honeygrove's principal shareholder!

[barryrog] 01/9/2004 19:47

just got in after a day out.
message to you RAB holders,stop hijacking this thread!

[edmondj] 01/9/2004 15:10

Yes, parts of it look a bit like a war zone but we were assured it was cowboy builders who owned it for a period!

[alexiskb1] 01/9/2004 15:08

ahh swaylands i knew i remembered that name - old borstal if i remember correctly. will pop in and have a look

[dunnie] 01/9/2004 14:55

EJ,
good point, fine line to tread.
Regards

[edmondj] 01/9/2004 14:50

The problem is presumably that as soon as they exercise meaningful warrants and go above 29.9% they are compelled to bid themselves!

[dunnie] 01/9/2004 14:47

Another thing to be noted that the warrants will not be admitted to AIM or any other market, so effectively thay are not transferable if a deal was done for the whole company, RAB could be left with egg on its face if they don't act quickly and at the same time if a deal collapsed and they had shelled out a further £3m to convert them it could leave them with 60m shares and no buyers for them in the short term, as EJ pointed out RAB need to bolster the H2 performance.

[dunnie] 01/9/2004 14:17

I have copied part of the announcement below which was put out in October 2003 when RAB bought the 30m shares from HYG as part of the deal they also had rights to subscribe to a further 30m warrants at 10p, but the warrants only have a shelf life of 2yrs, and we are now almost in October 04, so i feel RAB may simply be locking in a bit of profit on the original tranche of shares(ie .1115p) and then converting the warrants to shares with a bit left over. RAB have adopted this strategy every time there is bid speculation, after all if it comes to nothing the shares will be back down to around 8p, and i sincerely hope that doesn't happen for all our sakes.

Honeygrove is pleased to announce that it has agreed conditional terms for the
issue of 30,000,000 new Ordinary Shares at 10p per share to raise #3,000,000,
before expenses (the "Placing"). The shares are being placed with institutional
and professional investors. The 30,000,000 Ordinary Shares to be issued under
the Placing will represent approximately 24.4% of the enlarged issued share
capital of the Company.

As part of the Company's acquisition of Honeygrove Holdings Limited in June
2003, the Company acquired the Swaylands estate, Penshurst, near Tunbridge
Wells, Kent. The Board initially intended to dispose of the whole or a
substantial part of the Swaylands site. However, the Board has subsequently
concluded that, with the addition of a limited amount of further capital, the
Company could develop the entire site itself, or a substantial part thereof,
with the expectation of generating significantly better returns from the site
than would be the case if the whole or a substantial part of the site was sold
to another developer.

The Placing will provide the Company with additional capital and the flexibility
to develop the entire or a substantial part of the Swaylands site itself.

As part of the terms of the Placing the Company has agreed to issue 30,000,000
two year warrants (the "Warrants") to the placees to subscribe for Ordinary
Shares in the Company at a price of 10 pence per Ordinary Share. The Warrants
will not be admitted to AIM or any other market.