Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[dbadvn] 13/6/2024 11:17

its all about the money ( = sales ) from here on in ....

[lauders] 13/6/2024 10:34

Deadly dull here and drifting. Good we may be about to break 300p again but we need some decent news to get things going. Never seems to arrive and if something good appears is sold off. Come on HCM give us something to cheer about please!

[1jat] 10/5/2024 20:21

The company will need to think about how it deploys excess capital…..It looks likely they already have a buffer of ~US$200-300m in excess cash.
A dividend of 1HKD/10p would cost about HKD850m / £85m US$110m and is likely affordable.
However their main shareholders may not be than interested in a cash return and prefer buy backs. Management will also be able to fund M&A (I include in-licensing) to expand the business and potentially take on debt to fund itself.

Lots of good problems for management to ponder.

[lauders] 10/5/2024 08:00

Thanks 1jat. The Takeda presentation (link provided over on LSE BB) is good to check out as well. Fruzaqla and its progress is shown in various slides.



One day (2027?) we may be looking at dividends here too. Doubt I will have the stamina to hold all my current shares until then, but should be holding some.

[1jat] 10/5/2024 07:50

Lauders
The sales report from Takeda was IMO a very positive one. They reported FY sales of 10.1bn JPY which is approx $65m, with 15m in 2023, that means Pts signed up for $50m in Q1.
They are still building the book and have not reached a steady state when new patients are matched by patients coming off the medication.
The $50m is approximately adding a net $5m of new sales each month which adds $30m to revenue each quarter in the short term and then the increment will start to tail off as equilibrium is reached.
The maths suggests a likely sales trajectory in the US for 2024 Q/ly sales of
50
80
110
140 which totals $380m.
We can watch that develop with the HY results at the end of July, but I would be hopeful that Takeda generates $350m of US revenue this year which will bring HCM $50 of royalty payments.
EU approval should come in July with sales in the higher volume but maybe price limited markets following…..THere are more govt pricing reviews before full volume can be reached in most countries so I expect it will take 2 years before we see a full European sales picture emerge. The market is 3x, but I would expect a price cut (25%?), so Takeda may be able to push EU sales to $700m in due course
Japan approval around the end of the year with sales starting in 2025. Other markets to follow using these approvals as a base.
I can see HCM getting $150-200m in royalty payments in 2026 which will last for a few years.

[lauders] 09/5/2024 09:33

Wonder why the rise today? Could it be Takeda related? Sales of Fruzaqla.

Doubt it is related to the news yesterday: Hong Kong, Shanghai & Florham Park, NJ - Wednesday, May 8, 2024: HUTCHMED (China) Limited ("HUTCHMED" or the "Company") (Nasdaq/AIM: HCM, HKEX: 13) today announces that Dr Renu Bhatia is appointed as an Independent Non-executive Director and a member of Technical Committee of the Company with effect from May 13, 2024.

Interesting to see she is the chairman of the Listing Committee of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited though.

[dbadvn] 06/5/2024 11:05

This is a good entry point for shorter term “momentum “ investors .

I’d buy more if that was my style , but I’m in it for the long term.

[lauders] 06/5/2024 08:12

Quite a good day over in HK today:

Let's hope the positive momentum continues this week. Results due on Friday I seem to recall from something I observed the other day.

EDIT - The 2023 annual report is worth a look:

[dbadvn] 26/4/2024 17:15

US investors so spooked over China that all they are looking at is the money.

When the cash starts tocome in they will react.

In the meantime HCM remains a huge bargain.

[1jat] 25/4/2024 09:30

AZ reported Q1 Orpathys sales up 43% (48% at CER). HCM gets a large % of the revenue in royalties and manufacturing fees.

Sales continue to build after inclusion in NRDL.

[1jat] 23/4/2024 10:50

Lauders - the next news I am looking at is 9 May in the Takeda Q4 results. This will show how sales are going in US market.
There are some product approvals due in the next few months. The sNDA for Fruq in GC is probably first, with EMA approval, JPN approval and then Sovlep BTD review all expected this year….not sure how long China regulator is taking on priority reviews, so maybe the ESLIM01 review also sneaks into 2024.
The Sovlep review result was seen as a trigger for partnering negotiations.

I am sure there will be other news but those should be the big ones coming up. An efficient market would be baking in some of these results….but we certainly dont have that so I am hoping the individual approvals will create a variety of bump ups…the market for Fruq controlled by the EMA is 3x the US so is probably the most important, followed by a Sovlep approval and subsequent partnering announcement.

[lauders] 23/4/2024 10:07

Are we going to hit the 300p barrier and hopefully push through it this time? Would be great to get some decent news so that it makes it possible and then pushes us through the 400p target I have in mind for starters. We were just under 600p three years ago!

[lauders] 09/4/2024 08:55

China Universal Asset Management Co. Ltd. lifted its position in HUTCHMED (China) Limited (NASDAQ:HCM – Free Report) by 353.7% in the fourth quarter, Holdings Channel reports. The firm owned 3,593 shares of the company’s stock after acquiring an additional 2,801 shares during the period. China Universal Asset Management Co. Ltd.’s holdings in HUTCHMED were worth $65,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.



Could be the reason? More in the link than that shared above, so more interest by more parties in the stock now?

[its the oxman] 09/4/2024 08:20

Anyone know the rise today ?

[lauders] 02/4/2024 06:00

More good news from HCM today: HUTCHMED and Innovent Jointly Announce NDA Acceptance in China for Fruquintinib Combination with Sintilimab for the Treatment of Advanced Endometrial Cancer with Priority Review Status

[1jat] 28/3/2024 08:01

Yes…sNDA likely approval mid 25 and revenue in H2 25.
Delivering as promised in their target pipeline development slide.

[lauders] 28/3/2024 03:37

Good news today but so far only 1% up in HK.

HUTCHMED Announces Savolitinib sNDA Accepted in China for Treatment-Naïve or Previously Treated Patients with Locally Advanced or Metastatic MET Exon 14 NSCLC

Further reading of the news states "......has been accepted for review by the China National Medical Products Administration (NMPA). If approved, the new label indication for savolitinib will be expanded to include treatment-naive patients in China.

Hence the more muted response. Still, another step in the right direction.

[nerdofsteel] 14/3/2024 06:43

Excellent share price performance and I admit I sold close to the bottom after years of frustration although did buy 3NVDL on Jan 2nd which is a 3x Nvidia Leveraged ETF so have done extremely well there. I will put some of my profits back into Hutchmed shortly.

[lomcovaks] 12/3/2024 11:50

There does appear to be a growing number of analysts expecting an earnings beat creating an expectation of rising share price

[1jat] 12/3/2024 09:43

I am not sure these moves on no news really mean anything…and could well be reversed tomorrow when the market takes fright at some statement coming from US/China that indicates more restrictions.

The next news I will be looking for will be from Takeda…
Their annual results are due in early/mid May and will contain the $15m sales from 2023 disclosed by HCM and the first three months of 2024.

There may have been some stocking within the $15m and conversion of those on early access programs, but I hope they can sell $30m in Q1 and build to a $50m/quarter during 2024. This would give US in market sales of $150-180 and a $20m royalty (pure profit) to HCM (plus manufacturing fees).

It was interesting to see in the company presentation that Europe is potentially a much larger market than the US. It did not appear that the EMA was giving priority status, so they may take longer than the US to approve…that will also be good news when it comes.

[lauders] 12/3/2024 08:30

Nice move today. Wish it would continue and some decent news would appear to maintain it! Can dream ;-)