Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 18/3/2022 08:42

Hold in US now having sold out in the Mickey Mouse AIM market.The lack of credibility resulting from this absurd volatility is only exacerbated by the AIM market quotes.In addition,my US broker charges no commission and,of course,there's no stamp duty.The only disadvantage is potentially being ejected by the SEC.

[fionascott1234] 17/3/2022 17:54

The L giveth and the L taketh away.

[nerdofsteel] 17/3/2022 08:40

FT and Yahoo articles suggesting Chinese Regulator will concede:-

[nerdofsteel] 16/3/2022 16:40

All China stock listed in the U.S. are doing the same, Didi is up 43%, all are soaring but still have some way to go to recoup losses

[its the oxman] 16/3/2022 16:33

Bonkers - down massively then up 30% in one day.

[nerdofsteel] 16/3/2022 16:31

well l'Il have never seen HCM go up by 30% in a day, down, yes (botched CKHH placing springs to mind)

[miti 1000] 16/3/2022 11:54

Well done, Matt. Its certainly been the toughest market , I've seen , in 20 years.
As for HCM , its getting interesting for me to consider buying again. Need to do some reading up on it.

[steeplejack] 16/3/2022 10:47

"Darkest before the dawn" springs to mind but i confess i've been lightening my holdings in equities for a month and that includes Hutchmed.If that's capitulation so be it.There comes a point where it becomes too stressful to see all those gains swiftly evaporate,having been fortunate enough to have an exceptional run of good fortune in 2021.I can always buy back in but ironically,despite all the furore around the US listing,i'm more likely to purchase Hutchmed on the NASDAQ than AIM,the pitiful widening of spreads and general subservience of London to the US and HK listings,is off-putting.

[fegger] 15/3/2022 10:13

Sold out yesterday after holding for over 6 years. To preserve capital and a small profit. One thing ive learnt is you cant buck the trend of the markets. And too many risks here - political, regulatory and lack of insti support as pointed out. Down another 4 % today.

[steeplejack] 15/3/2022 08:40

It always was.The DCF models contain "probability of success in clinical trials",in addition to rather spurious future forecasts for drugs sales, that make it comparable to astrology.Yet,any investment bank lending money will be required to create these DCF models on a regular basis.World equity markets haven't really got a template for the current crisis.Inflation,geopolitical risk,higher interest rates.Ordinarily a stock like Hutchmed would be pretty resilient in a bear market but the geopolitical factor with the prospect of a delisting is taking centre stage.

[nerdofsteel] 15/3/2022 08:26

It seem it is no longer possible to value the company, all the DCF fluff and nonsense spouted by the Analysts may as well be the next book by Jeffery Archer

[1jat] 14/3/2022 21:42

I think the problems are exacerbated by the war. There are real fears China will overtly side with Russia and that could bring down sanctions on Chinese assets - and destabilise the global economy.

What I find odd is that CKHH, CKI and CKAH shares have barely budged while HCM has halved….surely ckhh will be on the HFCAA list this Thursday when it files its accounts.

[nerdofsteel] 14/3/2022 17:05

Brad Loncar hasn't sold down and he runs the Loncar China ETF which is stuffed full of China Biotech's, mostly HK listed, he also has a number of NASDAQ and dual-listed listed ones

Listening to his weekend podcast Brad did see it as an issue but clearly even he has been wrong-footed here in terms of the impact

[nerdofsteel] 14/3/2022 16:51

in the meantime I would have expected funds to be buying in HK given the incredibly low price but it seems that despite the HK IPO NASDAQ completely controls the price so if it de-lists in the United States that suggests the company will be worth absolutely nothing in the other 2 jurisdictions ......

[steeplejack] 14/3/2022 15:33

JP morgan describes Chinese internet stocks as being "uninvestable" over next six months to a year.Has cut forecast on Alibaba to $65 which seems a bit late given its already fallen two thirds in the last 12 months.Other stocks have been downwardly revised ie JD.Com etc.Of course,this sort of recommendation keeps storm clouds firmly over all Chinese listed equities.

[nerdofsteel] 14/3/2022 13:45

almost 7 years of growth wiped out

[bulltradept] 14/3/2022 13:43

You lot are talking the price down!

[steeplejack] 14/3/2022 12:32

I don't think that US investors will necessarily wish to take HK stock in exchange for Nasdaq stock,that's my concern.Civil-rights compromised in Hong Kong etc.To hold HK stock would be an act of tacit acceptance of the state of affairs.So,at some juncture the US holders might well have to bite the bullet and sell.The world economic order that looked so promising awhile back,is unravelling at a rate of knots.

[nerdofsteel] 14/3/2022 10:21

all those Institutional Investors who took shares at $40.10 HKD have very large paper losses now. Will they dump or hold....

[1pencil] 14/3/2022 09:11

Shorts having a bit of fun (at our expense)..

[steeplejack] 14/3/2022 08:58

Yes,its very depressing.Whatever you do is likely to be wrong unfortunately.

[nerdofsteel] 14/3/2022 08:52

this was my flagship investment, I have got to know some of the Board quite well and was very confident of the Company's future, now I am no longer sure whether to hold for the long term or dump like everyone else. No TR-1's so far....

8,9/10/11% loss every day for the last week

[steeplejack] 14/3/2022 08:44

There must be easier ways to make money!The geopolitical risk overshadows any fundamental appreciation of the company's inherent value.

[nerdofsteel] 14/3/2022 08:33

down 10% pre-market, the company has gone frokm $6bn mcap to $2.5bn and is now priced on a forward p/s of 7, how much lower can it go? if it de-lists in the U.SD. what will that mean to the valuation in London and HK given the company is still rapidly growing......

[steeplejack] 14/3/2022 07:42

Yes,not looking good.Have to see how the day progresses but clearly threatened US retaliation to any Chinese moves to aid Russia could intensify the "delist" narrative. Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway is quoted as thinking that the rating being applied to Alibaba is ridiculous.Fortune favours the brave,it also wipes out the unwary.