Nice 6.5% uptick at the start of today.
Bid/Ask totals 21.2k v 17.9k, as I type.
f |
Good entry point. |
Took some again today at near 265p.
The last lot did well and forecasts appear enthusiastic for the going forward, with a recent tp of 539p.
Good wishes to all.
f |
AZ has reported Orpathys sales of $36m for the 9m to end September.
This is consistent with the H1 run rate and FY sales should be close to $50m.
The Savannah read out was the first item in the pipeline update. HCM has stated in the November corporate presentation that they expect AZ to submit the US NDA in 2024. They also mention accelerated approval, so we may see an approval late in 2025, both events are likely to trigger milestone payments followed by sales milestones and royalties in 2026. |
Slightly disappointing Q3 sales by Takeda of $73m down from 80m in Q2.
On the upside, total sales exceed $200m triggering a $20m payment, the first commercial milestone payment under the Takeda agreement.
It looks like 2024 sales will be around $300m with some early sales from Europe and Japan to be added to a further 75m from the US. |
 Arguably both cash flow + and - lead to M&A - one as the major party and one as the minor party.
There are a lot of biotechs in China and there are significant efficiencies possible across pipeline assets, sales and general administration. New money is hard to raise but mergers are likely to be encouraged by the mainland to build some national champions (globally China cos are not in the big pharma league - that should change).
If CKHH is willing to back HCM issuing new equity or taking on some debt, then it should be possible for HCM to take the lead on some M&A deals and grow inorganically - that is how big Pharma got to be big rather than organic growth.
Pre-commercial deals - will come with more uncertainty but the target will bring some cash and R&D capabilities. The main economies will come from pushing more volume through the factory and sales channels when the acquired products are approved.
Commercial stage deals - Should generate value for both shareholders due to the large synergies…..balance sheet management will drive the cash/equity offer and debt levels taken on.
I dont think HCM has the management to do a significant merger at the moment, so if they are to be on the front foot I would expect a new CEO and a strategy director to be appointed first. |
Won’t affect the share price. Market expects only positive clinical results , only reacts to the negative.
It’s all about getting to cash flow positive. No more free money . Cash flow positive means survival and further growth. Not cash flow positive means takeover or merger. We will know which in the next 12 months or so. |
Further good news: HUTCHMED Announces that TAGRISSO® plus ORPATHYS® demonstrated high, clinically meaningful response rate in lung cancer patients with high levels of MET overexpression and/or amplification in SAVANNAH Phase II trial
Will hopefully get past 300p again. Perhaps it may actually stay above for once!
Hong Kong, Shanghai & Florham Park, NJ — Wednesday, October 16, 2024: HUTCHMED (China) Limited (“HUTCHMEDR21;) (Nasdaq/AIM:HCM; HKEX:13) today announces positive high-level results from the SAVANNAH Phase II trial that showed TAGRISSO® (osimertinib) plus ORPATHYS® (savolitinib) demonstrated a high, clinically meaningful and durable objective response rate (“ORR”) for patients with epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated (“EGFRm”) non-small cell lung cancer (“NSCLC”) with high levels of MET overexpression and/or amplification, defined as IHC90+ and/or FISH10+, whose disease progressed on treatment with TAGRISSO®. These data will be presented at a forthcoming medical meeting and shared with global regulatory authorities. In 2023, TAGRISSO® plus ORPATHYS® received Fast Track designation from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in this setting. |
More good news!
HUTCHMED’s ELUNATE® (fruquintinib) Listed with Full Subsidy in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary
Yet, currently down 7.70% in HK although the news doesn't seem to be showing on this page at THIS time. No doubt it will show and then there will be a change in sentiment? |
HCM + 7.48% at the start of today.
Lowest ask on show; 317p.
f |
Good news!
HUTCHMED Announces Japan Approval for FRUZAQLA® (fruquintinib) Received by Takeda |
I dont expect anything to happen quickly - but I hope this triggers a thought that it might be a good idea to separate the roles of CEO and CSO……and they need to appoint some new management to both roles.
I would also like CKHH to review its strategy for HCM. I suspect HCM shareholders would be materially better off if it was part of a larger organisation where the commercial teams can be rationalised / leveraged along with the pipeline better prioritised. That could mean bringing in new management and then acquiring other businesses, or selling to a rival. |
1jat.
I agree - this is yet another management screw up - they should not have waited so long when they must have known the results were not acceptable , and talking it up at the HY results is just inexplicable. very poorly handled.
Not the first time ; HCM suceeds technically, despite its management ...... |
Waldron - what is your view on the RNS?
From my perspective it is disappointing, but the problem with OS was in plain sight. I am disappointed that it has been a lost 18m while waiting for a negative view from the regulator.
What this does call into question is management’s judgement…..they were talking this up at the HY results but the issues must have been known and the prospects worsening.
Hopefully there will be good news from Japan shortly and positive news from the outstanding China regulatory submissions…..
From a management credibility perspective it is important that they get the ITP and EMC approvals and the extension to Savolitinib. |
Next news is likely to be approval of Fruq for Gastric cancer and in Japan(Q3 was suggested for both events), then Takeda sales update at the end of October (for their HY to end September).
It remains to be seen if Hutchmed will provide a sales update thereafter….. |
Good to see that HCM stood its ground yesterday and did not buckle. Very surprised really! Now good to see strength on the general recovery that appears to be taking place. |
Well the markets were not that impressed by the HY results.
It may take some time for the analysts to update their forecasts, although the only significantly new information yesterday was the Takeda sales which I consider to be at the top of expectations, certainly Cavendish will be raising their forecast from $200m to somewhere north of $300m.
Yesterday’s up before results and todays slight down were not dissimilar to other companies not reporting results.
The most significant slide in the deck is now the roadmap with the expected submission and approval/launches mapped onto it.
CEO saying that profitability point will likely be reached in mid 2025 ahead of plan should also be a boost….. |
Takeda sales for Apr-Jun were 11.9bn Yen. This is nearly $80m USD.
The growing sales trend in the US shows little sign of slowing (but it will).
2024 sales are going to exceed $300m….cant predict the peak US sales yet but 350-400m looking likely for 2025.
A good start to the day |
hxxps://www.takeda.com/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/ |
Takeda will reports its Q1 numbers before HCM issues its H1 report….
If the HK market moves significantly look at the Takeda results. |
As with all things M&A for HCM, it will come down to CKHH.
China wants its raise its markets by encouraging firms to be more commercially oriented and provide value to owners…..
Beigene is probably the most successful of its younger biotechs but is still small compared to big pharma.
I expect there will be a wave of consolidation M&A within the chinese biotechs, and HCM will participate…
The economics would appear compelling…230;.if you merged HCM with any of Junshi, Innovent, Beigene there would be significant operational overlaps across the whole develop, register, manufacture and sales processes as well as competing products that can be rationalised. In addition the companies have raised funds some of which is looking like excess capital which can be paid out in merger / dividends.
The big news tomorrow will be Takeda’s sales in the US……they should have grown sales from the $50m in Q1 but by how much? Closer to $80m and it will look like the patient population is growing and could be much higher than the $200m pa currently penciled in by analysts.
The rest of the year will be dominated by:
1 news of regulatory approvals with three reviews ongoing in China and one in Japan.
2 early sales in Europe by Takeda
3 AZ submitting Savolitinib for approval in the US.
4 Possible partner for Sovlep. |
Also note the emphasis on the market value up front and highly visible.
Something has changed at HCM…..finally realising that it’s now or never , no more free money from the market.
Upcoming results are critical. If they are excellent (not just good) they go onwards and upwards. If they are not excellent then they become a prime takeover candidate and must “dress themselves up” for that. |
Results on Wednesday 31st.
Also good to see this presentation from 9th July on HCM's website which I have only just noticed now: |
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