if this ever gets back to 6 quid before I die I will dump the lot! |
USD$ price nearly 1 HKD$ below the equivalent close in HK earlier!? |
shocking ti think the mcap of Hucthmed is lower than when it IPO's on NASDAQ over 7 years ago, absolutely awful. I cannot understand why we are at this level. HFCAA effectively a non-event, massive pipeline, FCF generation now closer than previously expected, current valuation is cash + jv. Market is attributing zero to the drugs, the pipeline, IP etc etc etc, zero.... |
Up nearly 8% in HK for some reason. Let's hope it is the start of a new trend here. Very poor performance since January 2022. |
thanks for a great post 1jat, I've been following Innovent for a few years now, a company which is similar in so many ways to Hutchmed in terms of pipeline, revenues etc but seems to have an appetite for in-licensing as well as put-licensing, a strategy which Hutchmed is now beginning adopt. Still loss making Innovent is valued at twice that of Hutchmed on p/s and also higher on a p/b basis. |
CKHH probably has received expressions of interest…̷0;but it possibly wants a multiple of the current share price
IMO a merger with Innovent would be highly value accretive….they have a lot of comparable development programs that they can pick the better product to invest in…and putting more product through the sales channel and more efficient manufacturing can only be a good thing for margins for both players.
The obstacles are reaching agreeable valuations for the respective portfolios and resolving potential conflicting partnerships.
Chinese consolidation moves will trigger large valuation gains…..but they all seem to interested in self development at present. |
I'm surprised Hucthmed hasn't had offers already - if you add cash, IP, and jv value that's about the mcap at the moment so the market is valuing all the existing drugs and pipeline at zero. Crazy. |
Takeda has bagged itself a bargain…..how much of a bargain will be seen when it becomes a $1bn sales drug…..it will probably be paying $200m royalties to HCM pa….which will have a present value of approximately HCMs market cap.
If they also sign up to Surufatinib they may as well buy the whole company. |
Short positions increased somewhat last month:
"Current Short Volume1,230,000 shares
Previous Short Volume946,300 shares
Change Vs. Previous Month+29.98%"
But this all looks a bit coordinated?
(After hours; 10.69; down-0.13 or -1.20%) |
What is going on to drag us down so much? Just awful. |
Usual last hour (or so) drag down on nasdaq, and to incorporate an intraday low! |
15 June 2023: "OSAKA, Japan and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. and HONG KONG and SHANGHAI, China and FLORHAM PARK, N.J., June 15, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Takeda (TSE:4502/NYSE:TAK) and HUTCHMED (China) Limited (Nasdaq/AIM:HCM, HKEX:13) (“HUTCHMED”) today announced that the European Medicines Agency (“EMA”) has validated and accepted for regulatory review the marketing authorization application (“MAA”) for fruquintinib, a highly selective and potent inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor receptors (“VEGFR”) -1, -2 and -3 for the treatment of adult patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer (“CRC”). If approved, fruquintinib will be the first and only highly selective inhibitor of all three VEGF receptors approved in the E.U. for previously treated metastatic CRC.1,2" |
Seems to be an attempt to keep a lid on the nasdaq price; last few minutes (admittedly before close) price being pegged back down; seems to have been like that for a while. |
It is not the first time, from memory, NoS has stated he is "out".
Just listened to yesterday's GS GHC session by HCM and all continues to sound very positive. Why HCM are not valued more highly is odd, but I don't think it can stay unloved for very long. Note: I have been wrong many times before! |
NoS: thought you were out? |
another day another drop in the share price. US Investors pivoting towards tech, anti-china sentiment and geo-politics has killed this. How on earth can the market value this company lower than 8 years ago. |
In a similar position. It's gutting , but operationally they continue to deliver so hope remains. Surely sentiment will change one day and Chinese stock will hit new highs. Bit of a dreamer me. |
8 years wiped out |
down it goes again, I have lost a lot of money here. Such a great company but being hammered and decimated by the market. |
Shame. Still hoping value will return |
I'm out - lost far too much money here - another failed investment |
yes I think you are right - geo-politics and anti-chinese sentiment are playing a major role here but what surprises me is that the NASDAQ listing seems to control London and HK prices. I was expecting and hoping that inclusion in certain chinese indexes and the southbound stock connect program would mean a big influx of chinese investors and that would mean theat the HK listing would become dominant, but that hasn't happened. |
The story and the performance havve not changed. Only the political background holds HCM back. I think the relationship with Takeda will go a long way to fix that. |
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