Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[nerdofsteel] 23/7/2018 10:55

Nice to see a pipeline update, especially as we have a Phase Ib/II starting in the U.S for Sulfatinib, a wholly owned asset.....

Speaking of wholly owned assets I wonder what Lilly have decided with regards to ex-China Fruquintinib rights. We should know fairly soon....thy have one more chance to decide and from memory that is around now....

[danieldanj] 23/7/2018 08:25

Hutchison Chi-Med (HCM) News Out Just Now

[nerdofsteel] 21/7/2018 21:47

I base £300 per share on:-

P/S 22
P/E 75
EV/EBITDA 75

Perfectly reasonable multiples

[sportii] 21/7/2018 20:27

Hopefully, this time, it’s not going to be a transient uplift prior to the results.

As NofS has mentioned, there are a number of positive prospective factors. Personally, I look at the major share purchases that’s been happening over the last months (and years). Who is/are these major buyers??

NofS, 300 by 2025?? That would be amazing!!!

[nerdofsteel] 21/7/2018 19:40

Property compensation and first NDA coming shortly!

[nerdofsteel] 21/7/2018 15:59

£120 is perfectly feasible in the next couple of years in my view, IF we get Savolitinib launched globally for PRCC and NSCLC.

That would be an mcap of $10bn which compares closely to BGNE now, and they have ac much smaller pipeline and lower revs, albeit they now have Celgene's rights in China.

That would be 22 x forecast revs which is not over-stretched for a Biotech with a very large and deep pipeline. £300/share by 2025 IMO.....

[sportii] 21/7/2018 11:48

120 will be extremely nice for most of the long timers here. That price might look ridiculously good to believe, now. IMHO, that’s possible, or else, why would big purchases like the one from last evening , keep on recurring.
No recommendations intended.

[mad foetus] 21/7/2018 11:13

I'm wondering whether we are coming to the end of a consolidation and could see the start of a significant move up. This went from 20 to 60 after the last pullback. 40 to 120 May be the aim for end of next 18 months

[miti 1000] 21/7/2018 07:13

Interesting close in the uk with a late 12k buyer at 50quid.

Low and behold an hour later in the US , there's a 3% rise for the adr's into the close.

Results on Friday. Hopefully some good news on the way !!

[nimrod22] 15/7/2018 10:35

I did wonder if the share price may have suffered because it has "China" in the company name and the frequent news about tariffs??
For anybody following Chinese based shares.. Xiaomi on the Hong Kong board is worth a punt, IPO last Monday at low end of valuation of 17HK$, dropped and since recovered to 21.45HK$. Will also be listed on the Hang Seng index on 23rd July. Plenty of info out there.

[nerdofsteel] 14/7/2018 12:33

thanks Lauders, plenty of interest but average daily volume still quite small

hxxps://fintel.io/so/us/hcm

[lauders] 13/7/2018 02:14

Nice to see some interest towards the end of yesterday's session. The only reason I can find is some buying from this outfit:

Prince Street Capital Management Llc, which manages about $1.36B and $530.07M US Long portfolio, upped its stake in Hutchison China Meditech Ltd by 20,100 shares to 81,400 shares, valued at $2.41M in 2018Q1, according to the filing.



Also managed to find out that HCM are also held by this fund: when trying to research Prince Street Capital Management Llc who happen to have the most useless website I think I have ever had the misfortune to find.

[lauders] 10/7/2018 02:14

More of a similar nature that you can read on a non-subscription basis:



China's medical research and development has progressed in recent years with the talent pool getting stronger and innovation booming, he said.

Not sure how this will impact HCM but probably not at all as none are available on the market yet:

It will probably be a help actually as the drugs, when available, will be local and not as highly priced as some unless AZ or Lilly have their say and make pricing discussions "complicated". Will be interesting.

[nerdofsteel] 09/7/2018 18:02

Interesting article from today's FT on cancer drug prices in China

[nerdofsteel] 06/7/2018 12:02

Thanks Lauders, I assumed that to be the case, any contract with AZ would still be valid but good to get it from the IR contact, which was a good way of sourcing the information.

[sportii] 05/7/2018 14:40

Thanks Lauders for your efforts and update.

[lauders] 05/7/2018 13:50

Reply from the company via IR: Chi-Med’s subsidiary, Hutchison Sinopharm, has exclusive rights to commercialize both Seroquel and Seroquel XR in China, and these rights are unaffected by the AZ/Luye deal. This has zero impact to our 2018 revenue and net income guidance.

[nerdofsteel] 05/7/2018 07:36

Thanks Lauders, approaching IR is a great strategy. Please do post if you get a response ;o-)

[lauders] 05/7/2018 02:19

Well, apologies if it upsets anyone but I already contacted Ralph at Investor Relations late yetesterday afternoon and posed the question about the possible impact on HCM. He very kindly replied promptly and said he would check the answer for me, so if he replies with anything worth sharing I will update you all. Please note that I did not go directly to management but through the channel that I believe is there to assist investors at such times. If they choose to pursue the inquiry with the company that is their decision. They could always reply with a general comment per NofS post above, i.e. "The company is aware of the matter and investors will be updated on Friday 27th July during the CEO's presentation" or something along those lines.

We shall soon find out but I will not be able to update here until later this evening which is probably going to be around noon UK time as I don't have access to personal e-mails until after work.

[sportii] 04/7/2018 19:18

Thanks Nofs.

[nerdofsteel] 04/7/2018 15:59

Typical Chinese Co. they even have a Company song on their website which is nauseating belief, although I have no idea what they are saying!

Founded in 1994，Luye Pharma has state-of-the-art production facilities and R&D centers located in China, the USA and Europe, as well as overseas branch offices in Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia with approximately 4,000 employees.

Looks like the majority are partnered or products that are in-licensed.

I would expect to get an update from our CEO on Friday 27th July during the H1 results webcast. I am not going to approach the Co. on this point as I believe it puts the management team in a compromising position when an individual investor tries to gain this type of information.

I am sure Analysts will raise the Seroquel question on the 27th.

[sportii] 04/7/2018 11:08

DG,after this news,I looked briefly at luye. They appear to be doing well in oncology as well as in cns related fields. Listed at Hong Kong and Frankfurt exchanges. Wondering if you have any information.

[nerdofsteel] 04/7/2018 10:24

nice spot Sportii............

and it reflects the fact that Chi-Med's JV has 3,000 medical sales reps across China, which Luye does not have. I suspect the contract between HCM and AZ is still valid in that regard.

[sportii] 04/7/2018 10:13

Is this any relevant? - ‘Luye plans to use the same local distributors for Seroquel as AZ,...’
in the 7th June yahoo finance article titled ‘ Seroquel Stepping Stone: How Luye Will Use Seroquel to Expand in Emerging Markets’

[nerdofsteel] 04/7/2018 06:58

It's a great question, I hope we get an answer shortly as Seroquel is extremely important for us at the moment. That importance will start to diminish as Fruquintinib and other drugs gain approval of course, but it's fairly critical at the moment.