Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 03/5/2018 17:44

That does make sense of the recent price and trade action, thanks.

[nerdofsteel] 03/5/2018 17:13

hmmm I do understand from various sources (more than one) that institutions are desperately trying to buy large numbers of shares without success. Liquidity remains a problem, but that is a great problem that will benefit existing long term shareholders in the long run.

Institutions trying but failing to buy large amounts of shares and the last issue of shares on NASDAQ being over-subscribed - that tells me all I need to know.

I continue to buy.

[mad foetus] 03/5/2018 16:34

Very large volume today, no movement in share price curious.

[mad foetus] 03/5/2018 12:02

Thanks nerd. I think we may be about to break the record for the number of consecutive up days. I can't think of a better share to hold on a long term basis. So many tailwinds here.

[nerdofsteel] 03/5/2018 11:54

I notice we are in the Investors Chronicle AIM top 10 picks for 2018

4. Hutchison China MediTech

It has been 30 years since a Chinese company last launched a globally commercialised medicine, but Hutchison China Meditech (HCM) is on the cusp of changing that. Its novel cancer drug, Savolitinib, is in the closing stages of a final phase clinical trial which analysts think has a 75 per cent chance of success. If it gets the green light from regulators, Savolitinib will be used to treat kidney cancer, while further testing might give it the potential to be used in non-small cell lung cancer patients as well.

After 20 years of steady investment in research and development, clinical success has come thick and fast in the last 18 months. Aside from the Savolitinib trial, Chi-Med has seven final phase programmes ongoing in four different drugs which analysts think could generate peak annual sales of $7.6bn. The most advanced of these is colorectal cancer treatment, Fruquintinib, which could be launched in China later this year.

Arguably more important is the depth in the early- and mid-stage pipeline, which gives the group an excellent long-term outlook. There are five oncology medicines currently undergoing early-stage human trials, which should be launched between 2020 and 2023 and a further five in pre-clinical studies. Chi-Med is certainly not a one-trick pony looking to develop and divest novel drugs, but a fast-growing commercial biotech company with a long line of new medicines which should keep the top line growing for many years.

The group£s commercial arm in China is well established and will provide an excellent platform to sell medicines once they gain approval. It also generates cash to fund the drug development branch, while a recent $293m fundraise from the group£s Nasdaq investors has strengthened the balance sheet.

The innovation division also earns money for Chi-Med in the form of milestone payments, notably from big pharma groups Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca, which the group has partnered with to develop Fruquintinib and Savolitinib, respectively. The group will continue to receive one-off payments throughout the development stage and then royalties on the drugs£ sales.

Profits may still be some way off (which makes valuing Chi-Med very difficult), but we think the plethora of potential drug launches should give plenty of firepower to the share price in the next few years. The Chinese healthcare market is also becoming increasingly attractive as doctors and pharma companies seek to match their western counterparts. Buy. MB

[nerdofsteel] 29/4/2018 16:50

Thanks Lauders, I've looked at IBT in the past together with Axa Biotech, Polar Capital Biotech and one theme they have, or have missed is the rise of CHINA BIOTECH

They will catch on of course, in the meantime it seems they are either largely ignorant of the explosive growth of the Chinese market and Chinese Biotech fledgling Companies, or think it's too risky - their loss IMO, which is one of the reasons I invest directly in a number of Co's HCM being my largest strategic long term investment for many years and many more to come.

[nerdofsteel] 28/4/2018 16:46

lauders - My impression, as always, is that the Board are full of confidence in their ability to continue their brilliant track record of building shareholder value. They are conservative and do not take risks, in my view, but it's clear the strategy is being executed with focus. Having built a $4bn Company from nothing I can see huge shareholder value in the coming decade. It's also nice to see that they are clear that there is technically no need to partner any more, they have the $$$, the scientists and now the Regulatory Teams to get their drugs approved anywhere. I am biased but this is a brilliant Company, with a first class Board and a great track record in execution of their strategy, not to mention leading edge science. I also like the fact they are patient focused - they want to get Best and First in class therapies to patients ASAP..................

[lauders] 28/4/2018 01:49

Any particular insights you are able to share NofS? I know that they will not discuss anything new but just general thoughts of the event, vibe and body-language etc... would be welcomed from someone who was rather a long way from the UK to be able to attend.

[nimrod22] 27/4/2018 17:43

8 is a lucky number in China.

[nerdofsteel] 27/4/2018 16:42

Another excellent AGM by a fantastic Company and brilliant Management Team. There is going to be many many things on multiple fronts going forward, so exciting times for Investors. I think that is probably my 8th AGM now, look forward to the next one.

[mad foetus] 26/4/2018 16:43

I won't be able to go tomorrow as the wife reminded me I have a dog to look after. Grrr, would have loved to have seen the team and put faces to names. If any of you (nerd?) do go, any feedback would be much appreciated. Looking at the chart it seems like we have had 14 small up days in a row. Perhaps that indicates someone accumulating?

[mad foetus] 23/4/2018 07:55

Thanks nerd, I may try to go, other commitments allowing.

[nerdofsteel] 22/4/2018 09:32

hi mad, yes, going to the AGM, I think this will be my 6th or 7th year of attendance.

The nice thing about the meeting is very few Private Shareholders attend, usually 3 or 4 at the most, so it gives you a good opportunity to talk to Board members and senior management directly.

The CEO usually does a short presentation, based on the latest Co. one on the website, and is happy to answer non-material questions.

[mad foetus] 22/4/2018 07:15

Also, any of you guys going to the AGM and/or if you have before would you recommend it? I'm just about free on Friday.

[mad foetus] 22/4/2018 07:00

Thanks Lauders, and it does seem everything is on track. It is just frustrating how long these trials take a what a gestation period it is from concept to launch. Nature of the beast I know.

[lauders] 22/4/2018 02:31

For those, like me, who like a record of things stated about HCM progress by other companies. Here are the relevant excerpts from the AZ report that NofS mentioned:

1 - “2017 was a pivotal year for Oncology, with important data readouts for osimertinib, olaparib, durvalumab and acalabrutinib. We made exciting progress with combinations: olaparib with other agents from our DNA damage response (DDR) portfolio, savolitinib with osimertinib, and AZD9150, our antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) inhibitor, with durvalumab. In addition, we moved our cell death portfolio into the clinic. Translational science has been critical to these developments and is helping to ensure we treat patients who are most likely to benefit from our innovative
approaches.” Susan Galbraith, Vice President, Head of IMED Oncology

2 - We progressed evaluation of savolitinib in collaboration with our Global Medicines Development (GMD) colleagues, by continued enrolment in a clinical study in c-MET-driven EGFR mutation positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), combining savolitinib with osimertinib in the TATTON trial and completing enrolment with gefitinib in a trial in China. Initiation of these studies was based on strong science highlighting the co-dependence on both c-MET and EGFR in some cancers and
the potential for combining inhibitors targeting both of these receptor tyrosine kinases in a subset of patients with lung cancer. Clinical data were presented at the World Congress on Lung Cancer in Japan in 2017. A Phase III investment decision was made in 2016 for c-MET-driven papillary renal cell cancer (PRCC). Initiation of the Phase III trial in PRCC occurred in 2017, with enrolment ongoing. Savolitinib monotherapy continues to be explored in Phase I/II studies in other cancers,
including stomach, kidney and lung, and in combination with durvalumab, a programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) antibody, in kidney cancer.

3 - Savolitinib: a highly selective small molecule inhibitor of c-MET, partnered with Hutchison Pharma, is being evaluated in c-MET-driven cancers. It is currently in a confirmatory Phase III trial in PRCC, is also being evaluated in a Phase II trial in patients with a certain type of lung cancer.

[dbadvn] 21/4/2018 09:32

Upside is hcm has more potential over medium and longer Term. It’s a real investment not a takeover punt.

[nerdofsteel] 21/4/2018 08:31

true......unfortunately, and that has always put off American retail investors, who are looking for the next Juno or Pharmacyclics type deal by big Pharma with their patent cliffs...........

[steeplejack] 20/4/2018 16:10

But.....HCM is bid proof

[nimrod22] 19/4/2018 11:51

should pick-up in the US NASDAQ market as well, when it opens.

[mad foetus] 19/4/2018 11:31

Rumours of Takada making an offer for Shire. Sector could get hot imo

[nerdofsteel] 19/4/2018 11:01

Savolitinib gets plenty of coverage in AZN's annual review just published + Chi-Med detailed as partner

hxxps://www.astrazeneca.com/content/dam/az/PDF/2017/IMED_Annual%20Review%202017_FINAL%20APPROVED.pdf#page=6

[mad foetus] 19/4/2018 09:06

Looks like it has but it will be great to see the US reaction as well

[lauders] 19/4/2018 07:48

Will be interesting to see if the news from AZN has any positive influence on HCM today.