Henry Hub Natural Gas price approaching 4: |
 From Equity Development FWIW:
Good FY24 progress, despite variable end markets
Hunting has reaffirmed that FY24 EBITDA will be in line with October’s revised US$123m-126m guidance, the midpoint of which represents c.22% y-o-y progress. As previously noted, the OCTG and Subsea product groups have delivered strong performances while Hunting Titan/Perforating Systems (PS) has had to contend with depressed North American onshore activity levels.
Management has again raised year end net cash guidance (and for the third time during FY24) to US$100m-105m driven by successful shipment delivery and cash collection schedules we believe. Together with US$300m recently updated bank finance facilities, this places Hunting in a strong position to progress its 2030 strategy.
Compared to our last update, we note that the group net cash position and stronger US dollar (now £/US$1.21 versus 1.31 previously) are both more favourable inputs. For now, we believe that Hunting’s current share price is discounting levels of profitability significantly lower than the group is currently achieving.
We retain our fair value / share at 397p. |
This certainly should be back over 400 in the coming weeks. The sell off from the 450 levels some months ago always seemed exaggerated, but is and remains a good buying opportunity |
Marshall Wace LLP increased short position to 0.51% on 10.01.25.
Reduced back down to 0.47% on 14.01.25 (day of update). |
Berenberg raises Hunting price target to 480 (460) pence - 'buy' |
 I trade short term knocknock.
Any angle for a price move higher is appreciated. The way this moves, one short is enough. If they capitulate, they can drag the price alot higher. I don't know if Wace are looking at that update and how this price is rocketing and are covering, or considering covering, but certain shares can be...well...squeezy so worth a go.
It might just be part of some long/short strategy for Wace too. This got away on two occasions in the past - it moves like a loon. Nice to get a piece of it this time.
In contrast, the other buy CARD is moving like shorts are actually adding with price points being closed off - that looks a fail. Long termers must be pulling their hair out on that reaction.
Right, I'm going....been handed one of the four nasties doing the round this winter by a family member.....thought id avoided it...Fanks!
Fanks alot!
So time to see how much of a kicking is about to happen.
On the plus side, maybe a well timed vertical sneeze can change some "-" percentage movements to "+" movements
Just gorra time it right....
Broken terrible market fixed!
All imo
DYOR |
Edit. actually 0.48percent |
Shorts reduced considerable here over last two weeks think a previous poster mentioned down to less than 4percent |
From Equity Dev't FWIW:
Hunting has reaffirmed that FY24 EBITDA will be in line with October’s revised US$123m-126m guidance, the midpoint of which represents c.22% y-o-y progress. As previously noted, the OCTG and Subsea product groups have delivered strong performances while Hunting Titan/Perforating Systems (PS) has had to contend with depressed North American onshore activity levels. Management has again raised year end net cash guidance (and for the third time during FY24) to US$100m-105m driven by successful shipment delivery and cash collection schedules we believe. Together with US$300m recently updated bank finance facilities, this places Hunting in a strong position to progress its 2030 strategy. Compared to our last update, we note that the group net cash position and stronger US dollar (now £/US$1.21 versus 1.31 previously) are both more favourable inputs. For now, we believe that Hunting’s current share price is discounting levels of profitability significantly lower than the group is currently achieving. We retain our fair value / share at 397p. |
Bought at the open here (posted it on the CARD forum too early), for a similar sort of reason to buying CARD at the open. Might be wrong, but I think the market is expecting worse. There are shorts sat in both too. I don't know if the updates are good enough to squeeze them abit. It is always about the follow through.
A close above 315p here is a breakout. Nice chart if it does follow through with a strong intraday movement and positive close.
Is that expecting too much in this market?
All imo
DYOR |
Looking good. I wonder how the market will react though!
Thanks for link Edmond |
"Good FY24 progress, despite variable end markets" - new research and audio summary below
Hunting has reaffirmed that FY24 EBITDA will be in line with October’s revised US$123m-126m guidance, the midpoint of which represents c.22% y-o-y progress. As previously noted, the OCTG and Subsea product groups have delivered strong performances while Hunting Titan/Perforating Systems (PS) has had to contend with depressed North American onshore activity levels.
Management has again raised year end net cash guidance (and for the third time during FY24) to US$100m-105m driven by successful shipment delivery and cash collection schedules we believe. Together with US$300m recently updated bank finance facilities, this places Hunting in a strong position to progress its 2030 strategy.
Compared to our last update, we note that the group net cash position and stronger US dollar (now £/US$1.21 versus 1.31 previously) are both more favourable inputs. For now, we believe that Hunting’s current share price is discounting levels of profitability significantly lower than the group is currently achieving.
We retain our fair value / share at 397p.
Link to note: |
Update seems fine to me |
JEFFERIES CUTS HUNTING PRICE TARGET TO 450 (530) PENCE - 'BUY' |
I don't subscribe but UK Investor has an article - the free part of which says:
Hunting – Look out for the 2024 Trading Update next Tuesday, it could well prove pivotal in this group share price turning back upwards again
Next Tuesday morning will see Hunting (LON:HTG) issue a Trading Update for the year to the end of last month.
In late October last year, the company gave out a lower-than-expected guidance for the year, the effect of which was enough to swipe more than 23% off the group’s shares, seeing them back to 299p from 389p the day before.
They are now edging gently better, currently 303.50p, ahead of next week’s statement.
----
The full article can be found here if anyone does subscribe - or wants to etc;
hxxps://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/share-tip-hunting-look-out-for-the-2024-trading-update-next-tuesday-it-could-well-prove-pivotal-in-this-group-share-price-turning-back-upwards-again/ |
YepI bought in last week, surely bullish and oil is breaking out a little now at last. |
Added back a few here with Trump incoming |
short reduced to 0.48% on 30.12.24. |
Drift continues. Now on a fcst p/e of 8.1 and peg of 0.2! |
Part of a long article from IC published on 19 Dec, I've only just read it, this is the part where Jim Johnson gives his view of the Trump influence both short and medium term:-
www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/b80f3363-d30c-55c2-85a8-8d7eab601fac
...Hunting (HTG) chief executive Jim Johnson thinks it will take longer still. “I don't think that you're going to see a whole lot of momentum in 2025 because of the election,” he tells Investors’ Chronicle. “I think that's a 2026-and-on event.”
Hunting supplies equipment to the oil and gas industry, for both onshore and offshore projects. The shale industry has pushed the US to the top of the production league tables ahead of Saudi Arabia, but further growth there is unlikely, according to Johnson. He sees the main impact of the change in government as being infrastructure permitting, such as for pipelines, and the potential increase in permits for Gulf of Mexico projects.
“If you look at one of our key markets… the Marcellus [basin, in Pennsylvania and West Virginia], there is a lot of potential being held back because of lack of pipelines,” he says. Trump has promised to slash the permits that pipelines require..
..“I will... implement a policy of energy abundance, energy independence, and even energy dominance,” Trump said in September.
The idea of energy 'dominance' is an interesting one. If production does increase, and Trump is able to drive down prices globally, that will bring on a response from the Opec cartel, which earlier this month decided to continue “voluntary production adjustments” of 3.9mn barrels of oil per day (bopd), restricting market supply. This is split into two adjustments, one expiring in December 2026 (1.65mn bopd) and another expiring in March 2025 (2.2mn bopd).
Brent crude has traded under $80 a barrel since October, while in the same period the more US-centric West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has traded between $68 and $74 a barrel. That has been driven by broadly bearish global sentiment as a result of struggles in the Chinese and European economies, while Trump’s promises may have also helped push WTI prices down. As it stands, supply is already exceeding producers’ preferred levels.
Opec is struggling to get Iraq, Kazakhstan and others to meet production cuts, even though lower prices are hitting their economies. “A prolonged return to $50 per barrel and below pricing would likely make it more difficult for key producer countries to execute on the ambitious economic and social transformation plans that are popular with their young citizens,” say RBC analysts.
Looking further ahead, and assuming Trump has some measure of success at increasing local supply, this could add further pressure to those countries with less of a cushion than the dominant Opec player, Saudi Arabia.
Daniel Quiggin, an energy expert from think tank Chatham House, says the latter would be able to counterbalance increased production “to keep prices higher than the US would like them to be”. “Other oil producing countries, beyond Saudi Arabia, will be less able to cut production, and if prices are lower due to Trump’s policies, it will be more economically painful for them,” he adds.
The Trump White House’s potential approach to various global conflicts also has a bearing on the energy world. Stronger sanctions on Iran could limit flows to friendly countries, while a rapid decline in energy prices would further knock Russia’s economy. “There has been talk that lowering oil and gas prices is a potential tactic Trump could utilise to get Putin to the negotiation table,” says Quiggin. “But again, it’s not clear lower oil and gas prices can be achieved particularly quickly.”
If a breakthrough can be made in the Ukraine situation, Quiggin thinks Trump and his cabinet would then need to consider the impact of letting Russian oil and gas back into Western markets. That would cut European demand for US liquefied natural gas (LNG), the capacity of which the incoming president is also keen to increase by allowing new export terminals.
For the industry, while promises of a slashing of petrol prices won’t be music to companies’ ears, the rest of the president-elect's plans will be. “As we look at our plans for the next four or five years [alongside what we see from Trump], we think we've got a really good expansion window,” Johnson from Hunting says. |
Sorry just seen |
Good news, Cannacord. |
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