Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 11/5/2022 13:50

US CPI numbers m/m are worse than expected. $10 fall in gold suggests it is more worried about the pressure on the Fed to raise rates.

[northern4] 11/5/2022 13:33

I struggle to see the con here. The company had a setback due to inexperienced operation team but the way this company is building towards a mid tier producer without much dilution is impressive. My biggest concern is the security situation in Mali. French soldiers has been replace by Russian Wagner soldiers so anything could happen.

[plat hunter] 11/5/2022 13:27

Then my previous comment stands. You don't know what you're looking for.

[creditcrunchies] 11/5/2022 13:17

Trouble is I've been doing this since the late 1980s so I've seen many of these fly by night blue sky aim stocks fizzle away with their talk and no results laddie.

[borderterrier1] 11/5/2022 00:48

creditcrunchies Correct. At least you are smart enough to see it for what it is, a huge con. Don't get sucked in to invest in this dog.

[creditcrunchies] 10/5/2022 08:56

the presentations are merely more smoke and mirrors from Dan Betts as far as I can see I don't buy it until I see the numbers in the results. People are buying a mirage you see thousands of them in the AIM market

[sleveen] 10/5/2022 06:55

New presentation out. See RNSNON.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/5/2022 17:43

#1knocker, absolutely, it is the management team we are backing to get us through this challenging period, some companies are like watching a clown running through a minefield with them big shoes on .. :o), some go broke and disappear, some learn and develop over time, if this was a 1 mine company I would not be here but diversified 3 ways it does have much potential with the Dugbe DFS just round the corner now value adding, Kouroussa 1st pour 15 months out and the JV with Pasofino a work in progress..

Like many holders my patience is running very thin now and our COO needs to deliver some meaningful progress at Yanfolila in Q2 which will set the direction of share price travel, but when the share is on its back with 2 other projects coming together in parallel therein lies the opportunity..?

[1knocker] 09/5/2022 16:47

That's what I said with Albert Fisher, all true, but some comanies seem always to find a lamppost to walk into, and to hurt themselves more than others. Difficult times, yes, but the fiascos with the mining contractors and the machinery happen to companies which are not on top of their business. The more difficult the jurisdiction in which you operate, the more challenging the times, the more important it is to be on top of everything which is within your control. That's the difference between a sector leader and a laggard.
In this game, learning on the job is very expensive. Its a cardinal rule of investment in miners more than most sectors to back the experienced teams who have already learned (at someone else's expense!)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/5/2022 16:13

#CreditCrunchies, indeed, we really need to see progress demonstrated through results now and what Anthony has bought to the table, he has got a new fleet of machines now, a well maintained plant, and it is time to show us some meaningful steps forward in Q2, the AISC just is not good enough, but we know it is almost all down to volumes now..

[creditcrunchies] 09/5/2022 16:06

It's a case of prove it then with the results with this one I'm afraid it's like a broken record with optimistic guidance then some unforeseen event creates even worse revenues. Take everything from Dan Betts with a massive dose of salt because he's yet to ever deliver. Top tip wait to see it in black and white in the results. The markets don't believe a word right now

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/5/2022 16:04

#1knocker, absolutley right, some BODs just cannot win for losing though incompetence, however junior companies grow and the BODs mature over time so things can get better..

The wettest wet season on record - not management caused
The access bridge washout - not management caused
Covid - not management caused
Chaos caused by Covid on parts/employees - not management caused
Fuel price crisis - not management caused
Changing mining contractors and inheriting a cattle trucked fleet - right decision but pi55 poor luck on the machinery..
Lack of operational performance - new COO appointed - right decision, but he started just as we entered a low grade section of the ore body and has had to work with what hes got..

I am usually near the front of the line to berate management if they trip themselves over, but a lot of the poor results the past 12/18 months are not directly self inflicted..

[1knocker] 09/5/2022 15:09

llb, there are some companies which look to have good prospects but just seem to be accident prone. Many years ago I owned shares in a company called Albert Fisher, which seemed to have a good business model, and also paid a respectable dividend. Every time it reported, there was another crop of unforeseeable misfortunes, and the next half would be better .... I continued to top up. eventually it went bust. I learned a lesson there which I have not forgotten, and has stood me in good stead since: just as one of the great golfers, on being told he had had a slice of luck responded 'the more I practice, the luckier I get', and just as Napoleon said he liked lucky generals, so it is with companies. Some managements walk into lampposts, other's don't. The immediate cause may seem like bad luck, but when it happens consistently, the underlying cause can almost always be traced back either to inept management or a business which is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. There are enough gold miners with the wind behind them to make it unnecessary, indeed daft, to invest in strugglers. The truth is that Hum is going backwards, not forwards, and it has been doing so for a long time.

[plat hunter] 09/5/2022 14:29

I make dugbe dfs and the backing into vein to be worth a minimum of 6.5p which is 50% rerate from current mcap.

[borderterrier1] 09/5/2022 13:58

Gentlemen, this dog is DONE. Get used to it.

[borderterrier1] 09/5/2022 13:14

UKGeorge Bleeding cash you say? Nooooooo! Really? I wonder where it's going?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/5/2022 11:49

#Troc1958, the DFS could well have been finished end of April, and the technicalities of the earn in agreement criteria box ticking now underway along with progressing a funding package, with a bit of luck it will all come together in the next few weeks and we will see some value added to the HUM share price .

The last 4 quarters have been tiresome to say the least, but ore bodies are never consistent, we just need to grind through this low grade section and get the ROM pad blending up to >2g/tonne to drive down the AISC and get back into profit..

Q1 was dreadful but mostly due to down time reworks, it looks like we lost 4/12 weeks productivity which was never going to look good in ounces poured/sold terms, the digger issues are 4/5 sorted or 5/5 by now..

Dugbe PEA at a USD1600/oz gold price:
Pre tax USD825M NPV (5%) | (USD627M post-tax)
34% IRR (31% post-tax) at USD 1,600/oz Gold
~2.9 years capital payback from the start of production
USD627M LOM cash flow
USD893/oz AISC
USD821/oz Cash Cost

[troc1958] 09/5/2022 11:35

LLB ...I noticed the same re DFS timing in the Vein presentation timing chart (DFS by end May / early June), yet they leave the date in presentation "earn in agreement" text for DFS completion as April 22. This lack of attention to detail always concerns me!I see MCap of Vein is CAD44m, about GBP28m (for effectively 49% of Dugbe and some cash). Hum current MCap is GBP52m. Hard to believe that the market only values the balance of HUM assets at < GBP25m. Something is going to give when the DFS is announced. Either the Market will downgrade Vein or HUM will rally nicely. I personally think the latter will happen, but unfortunately I'm getting tired of the HUM shenanigans.Troc

[ukgeorge] 09/5/2022 10:47

The chart looks terrible.

If the mine is not back to being profitable how large is the company's credit lines with the bank? Really need to be careful with this company. Yes potentially a lot of jam tomorrow, but currently bleeding cash.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/5/2022 10:39

The Dugbe DFS progress arrow in the latest VEIN presentation looks to be end of May for completion, then publication after, but we are another day closer nonetheless and only a few weeks out..

[dickbush] 09/5/2022 10:13

Probably good day only, but I note that, thanks to Sterling's demise, the implied value of HUM's holding in Dugbe is currently £28.8 mil.

[dickbush] 09/5/2022 10:04

The Fed and other Central Banks will try to find the level of interest rates that slows economic growth without creating a recession. I wish them the best of luck with the hole they've dug for themselves. For the reasons given above I don't see any way that rates can match inflation unless they coordinate a short, sharp, rate rise as per Volcker in 1980. Otherwise, in the US (which leads all other Central Banks by their noses) I expect the Fed to try to maintain a positive yield curve, raising rates at the short end and selling its holdings of Treasuries to increase rates at the longer end. If we get an inverted yield curve in the US, there will be screams of "Recession coming" and already panicky investors will crater these markets, giving the Fed even more work to do.

FYI, Bloomberg is pointing out that traders in MEME shares have lost all their gains, Bitcoin et al are on the skids and ditto the other fads of the bull market. US CPI due out on Wednesday. PPI on Thursday. The Bond and Equity markets need some good news.

[nickwild] 09/5/2022 09:13

DFS now predicted Q2 (not end of April) in corporate presentation

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/5/2022 12:37

#Lowtrawler, this is the danger we are facing now as rates do need to be 8/10% to stamp sharply on inflation, but I just do not see it happening for the above reasons, 2-3% is the best we can expect and over time that will slow things down..

At what cost..? well most mortgage payers would be struggling if their payments went up £100 a month let alone double when fixed term deals close which is the likely outcome for many, consumers are now addicted to cheap debt and are up to their neck in it, the chickens are about to come home to roost for some even at 1% let alone any more, unsecured debt is way more expensive, eg Barclays personal overdrafts are 35% already..

Corporate debt refinancing is about to get a lot more expensive too at the expense of profits/dividends so price rises for everything are getting passed onto the consumer to maintain or recover margins and are ticking up..

Or, the other school of thought is the cure for high prices, is high prices, nobody can afford the goods so prices soften to find buyers, the cure for low prices is low prices, as demand picks to outstrip supply so do prices as sellers look for profits..

Another day closer to Dugbe DFS.. :o)