Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[borderterrier1] 23/10/2019 15:06

aim999 After the length of time I have been invested here, my patience is wearing thin. But I do agree with you in part;- this is a most certainly a dog.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/10/2019 14:14

#Chip... In addition to Bert Munros Turner Pope presentation above, a deep dive with DB and Crux interview with Matthew Gord uploaded today.. :o)



I like this guys interrogative style of questions, not just what are you doing, but how are you doing it, why are you doing it, and how are you going to pay for it..

BM is moving to CORA as CEO in the NY to push them on, and provide the potential project pipeline for HUM..

[aim999] 23/10/2019 12:14

Can't teach an old dog new tricks .... border terrier clearly a dog without a bone......this will come good as the $$$ come in. Dogs are impatient

[qs99] 23/10/2019 11:52

Just looks an odd EV/EBITDA price IMO with POG continuing to hold firm, 2020 could be v. good year for HUM IMO/DYOR....sense it wouldn't take much to push this beyond 30p etc..DYOR

[new_buyer] 23/10/2019 10:54

Borderterrier can sit this out as he says the $100k he invested in HUM is only 10% of his overall share portfolio but with the 40 years experience he has you'd think he would have seen this all before but I don't suppose he has!!

[dickbush] 23/10/2019 10:48

Many thanks, napoleon.

[dickbush] 23/10/2019 10:23

Current Market value circa $115mil. The government of Mali is due to pay $10mil for another 10% of the company. So, call it $130 mil. By year end 2020, they would have net cash of, say, $55mil, including the $10mil from Mali. On $80mil EBITDA I get

(130-55)/80 = less than 1.

Using the 3 1/2 times EBITDA of that earlier report

EV/EBITDA = 3 1/2
EV= $280mil
EV = Market Value - Net Cash
Market Value = $280+55mil
Share price = $335/390 = 86cents = 66p

Just playing with numbers. Who knows what multiple of EBITDA the shares will get in 12 months time or the actual EBITDA?

[qs99] 23/10/2019 09:06

thanks DB for presentation. Really interesting esp. 2020 forecasts so at end of 2020 on an EV/EBITDA of <2? DYOR but that looks nuts......everything has risks but am in for the ride still...DYOR

[dickbush] 23/10/2019 09:03

BT, I've been where you are. An old friend of mine in the investment business, who I saw once a year at get-togethers, told me to buy a small mining company. The first time it was £1.50. The next year it was £1.50. Before the next get-together he called me up to tell me it was £2 and how I should have invested. Then came 2008/9. To take the mickey I bought a load at 26p and called him up. Even that wasn't low enough. I lost 20k. He lost his shirt and lots of clients. It's still going and currently, putting aside splits, 0.005p. I followed the career of the management. They went on to found a rare metals company quoted in Canada with a mine in Africa. they got a major national company to invest $10mil. Another total dud. Now that is bad management.

[plasybryn] 23/10/2019 08:26

The good thing is HUM have against some awful set backs come through, survived and are now delivering some exceptional results which auger well for a great future. But don't forget this still isn't risk free. Nothing is even FTSE 100 or Trusts or even Funds. But perhaps you should look elsewhere and that sort of diversified investment so you can sleep at night and not keep plaguing us with your inexperience& naivety. Good luck

[plasybryn] 23/10/2019 08:22

BT - you obviously have no experience of investing on AIM. You obviously have no experience of investing in a small miner in a very different location to the UK. No one obviously helped you understand the risks or the rewards. Many go bust and you lose all you're money. I suspect you should never have invested in this high risk sector in a high risk location in a mine that wasn't even established at the time. But you did and you have to accept the realities

[dickbush] 23/10/2019 07:48

Instead of my going back any further than I already have, why don't you open your eyes to just the last two quarters.

Have you never heard:

If you want to make a small fortune in the stockmarket give a large fortune to a stockbroker.

You screwed up by believing the hype.

The share price of this and any other company depends on the growth or otherwise of the fundamentals, in this case earnings.

My GUESS is that by the time we get the 4th qtr results we will be looking at this year's 2nd half producing EBITDA of circa $37mil and, assuming $1,500 gold and a sideways stockmarket,an $80mil plus forecast for 2020 should see you back up to your beloved 39p and beyond.

[dickbush] 22/10/2019 21:59

borderterrier1, this company poured its first gold in December 2017. It is in only its second year of production , the first of which was a bit of a disaster. It may be a bit early to project the growth of production of the 2nd and 3rd quarters into next year but that seems the best bet, reinforced by that video.

The only disappointment at this stage is that the forecast of ASIC has been raised substantially from management's initial expectation to the current $800-850/ounce.

[kennyp52] 22/10/2019 21:10

Borderterrier1 .. you place no trust in the presentation then ? Increasing production and this POG paying off debt rapidly . Surely this creates more optimism ?

[borderterrier1] 22/10/2019 20:23

Plasybryn I hope you are right but unfortunately me and many others have been saying the same thing for three years now. If it isn't working you need to change something. I honestly believe that a change in Ceo, management (or preferably both) is necessary to implement a better outlook here. There have been some glaring mistakes....... that we know about. Why reward poor performance with high salaries?

[plasybryn] 22/10/2019 19:47

This is going to be a cash machine or a cash cow as they say. Very bullish outlook.

[kennyp52] 22/10/2019 18:26

Thanks DB . Interesting .

[coachsailor] 22/10/2019 17:44

Many thanks DB. I had not seen it either. An open and clear presentation supported by yesterdays Q3 update 3 weeks on.

[dickbush] 22/10/2019 17:04

Apologies if you've all seen this. I hadn't and for anyone in a similar position.



Note the suggestion that on production of 130,000 ounces next year, EBITDA would be $70mil at POG $1,400, and $85mil at $1,500.