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Posted at 21/4/2024 14:32 by plat hunter Contractors probably bank with Coris and HUM are backed by Coris. This gives HUM the opportunity to push out invoice terms to the long end and gives Coris the opportunity to factor the contractors invoices. As I've said before this scenario would see contractors queuing up and tripping over themselves to work with HUM and it certainly doesn't look like HUM are having any problems getting people in. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 18/4/2024 20:15 by tigerbythetail Long term for HUM shareholders depends on HUM surviving the short term threats to the business, which ain't no easy task from here... If Betts still has the full confidence of Coris Bank (and if so, in God's name, why?!?) then another equity placement could buy HUM more time to get Kouroussa into meaningful production. That would be the best outcome for HUM shareholders from here, though doubtless the share price would fall because of the extra dilution. Something is always better than nothing! But in all truth Coris Bank should just call in the debt (presumably claiming covenant breaches), take over the assets, appoint competent management, make a deal with Corica to restart work, and salvage what they can from the mess. I'm puzzled why they haven't done this already. What are they waiting for? Are they afraid to admit the scale of their potential losses? Do they prefer to pretend that everything is OK rather than face up to reality? As for the assets themselves, I think Yanfolila is pretty much a bust from here. Not only is Mali now a positively hostile jurisdiction but who seriously believes HUM can mine underground profitably when they've failed so miserably at the much easier task of mining open pit. Kouroussa could yield meaningful cash-flows for a few years, especially at current gold prices, but the high strip ratios need careful monitoring. Selling Dugbe will remain a challenge, because the list of reasons against doing business in Liberia is dauntingly long whatever the gold price. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 28/3/2024 14:31 by 1knocker I wonder if the share price is being held up by PI gamblers who fancy a small punt -double your money if the problem is resolved, lose the stake if it is not? I am not so sure it is as clear cut as that. It is easy to see how Hum goes belly up and the shares go to zero. But a 'double your money on resolution of the present problem' upside?Even if operations are got up to speed again, the contractor's claim will not disappear. That will hang over HUM, complicating future borrowing and /or capital raises. I do wonder whether HUM iha passed the point of no return, even if somehow there is a return to full mining, and. the next bed is as good as it hopes. Rather like RMM, where the quality of the asset was not the problem, but the unsustainable burden of its debts. If so, someone will pick up the mines cheap, and quite possibly do well out of them, despite the jurisdictional and operational issues of working them - and exporting the profits! Maybe the darkest hour is before the dawn, but I seriously wonder whether there will be a daybreak for Hum. I certainly will not be buying more. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 28/3/2024 12:17 by lowtrawler backmarker "The presumption is that Corica stopped work because they wanted more money". I don't think either party has said that? Corica has said they stopped work because HUM have not been paying them for work performed. HUM appear to have confirmed they were not paying Corica but believe they have a contractual right to not pay based on performance. The exact quantum involved is in dispute as well as whether HUM withheld the payments validly. These types of contractual disputes are common and normally handled long before getting to a point where the contractor walks out. If Corica genuinely believe HUM have withheld over $25m of payments without justification, it is easy to see why they downed tools. I don't believe any contractor would continue to operate if they had that level of unpaid invoices. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 23/3/2024 11:54 by plat hunter Cheers LLB, Corica are also very new in Guinea so staff and fleet possibly very thin on the ground from a starting point of zero. It's entirely possible that HUM have had their fill with the Corica's rep in Guinea, I mean yes there's challenges but HUM are not investing in the growth of Corica's business into a new jurisdiction and maybe risking a week or two of walks out might be a final desperate attempt to get group heads of business around a table. I doubt Corica will walk away and never come back and I doubt HUM will be looking to straight out fire Corica. So I expect concessions from both sides, which given the public mud slinging to date, I'd equally expect a public declaration of resolution for the purpose of saving face from both parties. What those concessions are will go much further to demonstrate blame and accountability much more succinctly than the current exchange via social media platforms. Operationally, I don't thinks it's the biggest banana skin HUM have faced recently but it's certainly the most excruciatingly embarrassing one. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 22/3/2024 09:40 by temujiin HUM, were an instigator for SMO gold, signed up to the gold council organisation, and put a lot of effort into ESG. Its hard to believe they would try and do one on their mining most important contractor. I suspect Corica have struggled to do what they said they would do, but are arguing that its not their fault for xyz reason, like lack of fuel. HUM are probably saying well the contract doesn't exempt you for any of xyz so were withholding a proportion of payment. Both sides probably have a reasonable case. I suspect the letter of the law is on HUM's side, but perhaps Corica have 'some' not unreasonable excuses. Coris being by far the biggest SH, need to mediate asap. Unless of course Coris Bank have done a shady deal with Corica to sink HUM so they can snap up Kouroussa just before they start taking out the good stuff - but that's pure utter speculation. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 21/3/2024 11:57 by lowtrawler desha, at a complete guess: HUM have tight repayment schedules which can only be met if production rates hit target Consequently, they have clauses in the Corica contract requiring them to deliver the production targets. HUM expect to feel pain from any delays and so have passed some of that pain onto Corica in their contract. Production delays in mining can happen for many reasons, only some of which will be under the control of the contractor. As you would expect, the contractor and HUM have been working to alleviate the delays but it has not been fully successful. The delays are such that HUM have withheld significant payments from Corica and Corica do not agree with the quantum of the payments withheld. It appears the size of payment outstanding has caused Corica to down tools. It is unclear whether HUM have the cash available to make sufficient payment that Corica will return to work. It is also unclear why they have not provided the guarantee required under the contract. If HUM have the cash available and it is simply a dispute over whether it is due, they could easily resolve that part by placing cash into ESCROW and agreeing a disputes process. I assume the guarantee will need to come from Coris. HUM need to get production back on track which means getting Corica back on site operating at full capacity. They can ill afford even a short delay. With the dispute now being played out in public, I expect only intervention from Coris will break the deadlock. It will most likely require an additional cash facility from Coris as well as their guarantee. The additional facility will need to cover the dispute and also any cash impact from the delays currently known or expected. To date, Coris have been more supportive than most Western banks and so we need to see how Coris respond this time around and at what cost to shareholders. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 20/3/2024 11:26 by papillon What a liar you are borderterrier1. This is what I actually said in my post 13179: "This HUM log chart turned Strongly Bearish at the start of 2021 @ over 30p. You should have sold HUM back then, borderterrier1. That would have saved you money and saved you a lot of time posting incessantly on this bb! However you'd have had to find something else to moan about to occupy your time! 🤣 PS this HUM chart turned Strongly Bullish again in H12023 and then turned Strongly Bearish yet again in H2 2023 and it's been Strongly Bearish ever since. The future for HUM? I've no idea as, unlike you, I can't predict the future. If I did buy speculative and very risky miners, such as HUM, I would wait until this chart turns Strongly Bullish before buying the shares (and selling as soon as it turned Strongly Bearish again!)." What a LIAR you are borderterrier1. LIAR, LIAR, you're pants are on fire! 🤣🤣 Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 11/3/2024 19:25 by papillon free stock charts from uk.advfn.com This HUM log chart turned Strongly Bearish at the start of 2021 @ over 30p. You should have sold HUM back then, borderterrier1. That would have saved you money and saved you a lot of time posting incessantly on this bb! However you'd have had to find something else to moan about to occupy your time! 🤣 PS this HUM chart turned Strongly Bullish again in H12023 and then turned Strongly Bearish yet again in H2 2023 and it's been Strongly Bearish ever since. The future for HUM? I've no idea as, unlike you, I can't predict the future. If I did buy speculative and very risky miners, such as HUM, I would wait until this chart turns Strongly Bullish before buying the shares (and selling as soon as it turned Strongly Bearish again!). Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 10/3/2024 17:41 by odsjp Hi avsome - Good to see you on here. I don't post much these days but like you I see value in HUM at the moment. There are other cheaper gold miners out there (ALTN, MTL, SHG) but none (as far as I am aware) have the potential to double their production this year, payoff a significant amount of debt with more to come in 2025. PAF which is expected to produce around 175,000oz in 2023 currently has an EV of £432M HUM currently has an EV of £212M (£92M cash and £120M debt). If (and lets be fair it is a big if with HUM)they can reduce their debt by c $70M and produce say 175,000oz of gold in 2024 then a 40p share price would mean a EV of £384M assuming of course no more dilution. Can HUM pull the rabbit out of the hat? History would probably say no, but increasing gold prices and a fair wind who knows. Also with Dugbe sitting in the wings as a potential cherry on the top I guess it is possible End of Q1 will be key to see how they are progressing. HUM have mentioned they will produce more in H2 but it is also the wet season to contend with as well. In Q1 2023 they produced 27K oz from Yanfolila so anything less then this in Q1 2024 for both Yanfolila and Kouroussa would be dire. I would hope for 32Koz+ with 22Koz from Yanfolila and say 10Koz from Kouroussa. Any thoughts from anyone else? I hope they mention how many oz they have produced from Kouroussa in March as well as the quarter. We need 8K oz/month for 96K oz/year, so would like to see 6K/oz for March. Hope I am not too disappointed. I have included a couple of tables below. Can't guarantee they are totally up to date(shows the cheapest miners first - column U) Read Full Thread Reply