People here seem to be having trouble with one very simple concept.
HUM's debts are due (actually overdue) and they can't pay them. They are insolvent.
How insolvent is a good question - how much do they owe Corica, their other suppliers and the two governments involved is unknown. But it's enough to know that HUM's fate is entirely in the hands of its bankers.
Most likely the next RNS announces administration, because I don't think Coris will go through with their mooted offer. They'll get the assets in any event as they have debt seniority. Or, just possibly, they'll reduce their offer further, but try to keep it going as a going concern.
Absolute cretinous stupidity to try and arbitrage this. Gold Investor aka Burt is a fool. You'd get far better odds of coming up with a profit gambling in Vegas. |
Is there a sum of the parts offset by debt around? |
Tiger I am well used to your posts over the years and have come to pity you , you know absolutely nothing more than the next guy here.
What will you say when I’m right , I’m not u interested in all your de-ramp I have been following this company 5 years I can make my own judgements.
I’m not panicking at all I’m excited to make 50 grand that’s it.
I could not care less about HUMS future I’ve invested at 2.2P
I don’t care about your view you think you know everything about every share , I am well versed with your pessimism on just about every miner I’ve invested on.
One thing I’ve learned is you know absolutely nothing !!! You always call it wrong. You were calling gold to drop it went up 650 dollars
I called that as well ! |
You're in denial - you've taken a crazy risk and now you're facing losses.
HUM is hopelessly terminally insolvent - it can't pay its debts, which are way overdue. At any moment the plug can be pulled here.
And, yes, the situation in Mali (bad previously) has deteriorated dramatically in the last 2-3 weeks. And most likely the Dugbe potential buyer has walked. So Coris WILL be rethinking their 2.6p offer - these are material changes in circumstance.
And Kouroussa. If you knew any geology, you'd be very careful about claiming everything there is fine. My own private opinion is that Kennedy sold Hummingbird a questionable project at best. The grades claimed and the grades mined have never matched up. It's not like Dan Betts can't be taken in by a slick sales pitch - see Bunker Hill. |
Meant to read in the current reality and situation. Yes clearly they are in trouble for most investors. I’m essentially a proverbial vulture picking over the carcass
I do see a small chance of HUM escaping Coris’s clutches entirely.
You called it right border and so did I
What I am now focussed on is arbitrage mainly. |
The things they say. "I warned everyone that Hum was in trouble but now I can see clear evidence that they are not in trouble." Really? Is that why the share price was 40p as a hole in the ground 6 years ago and today it is 1.90? Priceless!!!!!! |
Tiger the situation in Mali has been known a year , it’s factored into the share price and always has been
This is all about Koruso at the minute |
Tiger I barely even take in your views at all as your just someone that pops up all over with views that are often wrong , all I’ll say is let’s see how this pans and prepare to eat humble pie.
If I’m wrong I stand to lose a lot of money , but I am pretty certain what’s going on here and I’ve no doubt in the worst case I’ll receive 2.66P
I warned everyone that HUM was in trouble but I actually now can see clear evidence they are not in trouble and coris are been opportunistic.
You obviously don’t factor they are on commercial run rates. That is fact
I’ve called this right all the way and my money is where my mouth is as you know. |
 I get that you're in over your skis and watching what you considered a sure trade going horribly wrong, but:
1. Mali has gotten significantly worse very recently - see the shakedowns at RSG and Barrick by the military junta. (Always remember 50% of Mali's exports are gold, so it's the one easy place for the junta to get quick cash (which they desperately need as the war in the North os going badly). I don't know if the junta have made demands of HUM as regards Yanfolila yet, or if they haven't got round to it as it's a smaller mine. But it's coming for sure. And, all in all, Yanfolila's value to HUM is now a fat round zero.
2. I read the Dugbe news as the potential buyer getting cold feet and backing out. That's $30m gone. I thought that was an excellent price for Dugbe, all things considered. I doubt they'll find anybody else ready to pay that much. Or even a buyer at all. It's a very difficult project (for reasons I've gone into a hundred times already).
And, yes, these developments would cause somebody in Coris's position to reassess. They have security over the assets; so bankruptcy is an option for them. The only reason for them not to pull the trigger is they don't want to annoy / lose all the other creditors. |
Tiger Mali has been on going a year , your creating fear I get it. Dugbe theirs lots of interested parties that could bid higher and the current bidder is seeking finance. Least we have a ball park of firesale value.
On coris taking their time yes of course these things are complicated.
But many think the company has achieved commercial production so they don’t want this dilution and want to find other ways.
I don’t think you have popped up not knowing to much. But I can assure you the Mali situation was baked in to the share price and it’s all about Kuruso here as Yano was losing the company money , now break even.
I honestly think theirs an outside chance they can navigate this without all this and come out the other side.
They are on a run rate of over 30,000 a month at Kurso that’s 30 million extra that pays coris payments. |
I think an important RNS this morning despite its blandness - indicating that the Coris debt for equity deal may not be going as smoothly as planned.
Things have gotten worse for HUM over the last few weeks. UIN Mali, especially, with the actions of the military junta there. And, also, with the seeming collapse of the Dugbe sale. So maybe Coris are reflecting on those developments before proceeding, |
Chesty1 This has been "dead for holders" for years, it's just a pity nobody would listen to logic and common sense. Now I'm hoping the the AIM investigation will conclusively prove this and the authorities will prosecute those responsible. |
This is dead for holders.... |
It’s already happened , it’s already over. But it’s cheaper and more efficient to take this out at 2.66
It’s never likely going to be anymore than that.
Its value to shareholders is now 20 million
Coris now have taken control of the rest. |
I've been watching this for several years. Never dipped a toe in because of geography. I would get out now were I holding, this is likely to go one way.Good luck PlattyCheersFrog |
Hi all, does anyone know when the vote will take place and how us personal investors get access to vote? I use the Youinvest platform, will I automatically get a message with an option to vote when the time comes? Cheers |
Big shakedown of Resolute mine operations in Mali (Syama) by military junta there.
Some here having trouble understanding that HUM is insolvent and entirely at the mercy of its creditors. Best of luck to those trying to arbitrage the difference between the current share price and 2.6p, but it's not a game I would ever play. Way way too risky. |
burt777 You're working with "logic and experience" with this? You're obviously comparing apples to oranges or extracting the urine, right? Over the last few years, two investors here have said the same thing, Plat was one, I was the other. Guess who was right? |
 All I hoped was to persuade you to think about it. What happens to the share price if it is announced that this is not going ahead? I'd wager gains might be better than 2.6p, particularly if kor is finally gaining momentum. Because let's be honest, kor is worth much more then 2.6p on it's own.
Other things I think could also trip Coris up in their ambition.
I'm not saying that what they are doing is 'immoral' a such.. it's 'opportunistic', 'just business'.. maybe. And it was DB and co that left the door open to it(though they may have been running short on options towards the end, to be fair). But you initially said Coris was just protecting themselves and I think that is a big stretch, they are doing a fair bit more than protecting themselves and if kouroussa is @ 2700/week, frankly everything is just fine and they need take no action. They are trying to take a paid for mine at a _very_ low price, just as it's on the verge of chucking out cash. Any existing holder with any sense should vote against that(just my opinion, not advice of course!). |
Absolutely agree with all you have said there and it’s food for thought.
Just reading bismarks message that I received a phone call from insiders , this is not the case. I work on logic and experience.
I think coris are doing what anyone would do in their position. But if Koruso is at commercial then it’s possible things happen here.
And my vote is not decided to be clear |
You didn't really answer the question of why you wouldn't vote no. It's not like that will reduce your options post vote. The only laughably small danger is your no vote could result in it going into administration.. and I think we all know that is not really in anyones interest, particularly that of the number one shareholder and number one lender.
I am not a holder on your scale, but I will certainly vote against the waiver. In reality, if it is voted down - some other arrangement will be reached and the company will continue as a listed company. This is a better outcome for ALL non Coris parties, I would argue - yourself included.
You paint Coris as benign, just protecting themselves, but that is not really true. They are behaving as a predator, DB and co put hummingbird in a weak position and they are trying to steal it cheaply from current shareholders. If the declared position of Kouroussa is true, the company is viable as is(well, with new management is an extra bonus).. and just requires some slight wiggle room in it's debt terms. Coris could just provide that - they'd still stand to do very well out of the situation in the medium term. |
Hi Dusty it’s more to do with the situation I’m invested as I knew it would end up un a situation where coris struck.
Sadly there are ways that coris and the company can paint a blacker picture and they hold all the cards so pointless fighting them.
Plus people are selling at this price so what does that say , I’m surprised it’s dipped this low as the debt to equity will happen in all probability as it suits the situation.
Could I vote No ? Yes I could as the situation evolves most certainly it could be commercial production is announced and the board feels it can juggle. Couid be suddenly a higher offer arrives for Dugbe or the current bidders getting finance sorted.
Could be coris decide it’s better to keep the listing and some other alternative funding partner arrives.
So many possibilities really and this isn’t done.,
With Koruso likely at commercial run rates that’s big extra cash flows. They have a slight chance of coris backing off a full takeover but sadly the 71.8% looks done.
See what Tuesdays update looks like.
Lastly on the LSE board I find it hysterical they are trying to find a link between me and Dan Betts. I cannot stand the guy!!
But my holding is fully disclosed to the market. People try find conspiracy where their is none.
I personally am very sad for shareholders here but that’s investing and I am investing in the current fear as this is not going under , it’s valuable and a going concern.
Coris just rightly want to protect themselves by taking it private and the blame lands fair and squarely with the management.
It’s a moving situation so I’ve not actually decided what I am doing with my shareholding. |
dusty42 I agree 100% with what you say here. With different management this absolutely could be profitable. Multitudes of shareholders have already said that. Get rid of Del Boy, Tom Hill and the other hangers on. Put some DECENT management in charge. Simple. |
Ha.. ok burt, you being goldinvestor makes some sense. I was wondering why on earth you seemed pleased at the prospect of voting yes and getting 2.6p for your shares.
A question for you - why would you not vote no? If this can be blocked(hard for me to understand why any remaining true independent shareholder would not vote 'no').. then surely the prospects for your fairly significant holding are better. And if the no vote fails, it surely doesn't mean you can't accept any offer?
Lets be honest, by the sound of it the company is very much viable as is if kouroussa is pouring 2700 ounces a week, not to mention any dugby sale. This is not likely to go to administration. |
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