Hotel Chocolat Share Discussion Threads

[nithbank] 03/1/2023 14:09

Good to see the company striking a deal in Japan.

[niggle] 23/12/2022 00:04

They were queuing out the door in The Trafford Centre today. Only Pandora and Hotel Chocolat had queues! The Velvetiser is huge.

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 22:53

Problem right now is that looks like it's on a PE of 15 No international expansion means no more typical UK retailer international expansion losses But equally it limits the prospects of growth going forward; the UK market has to be well penetrated by now A lowish growth UK retailer in a stagflationary macro environment doesn't feel like a 15 PE to me; 15 feels like hopes and dreams still being priced into the share price in a nightmare market

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 22:43

The surprise during the last big recession was that coffee shops did a lot better than people thought So perhaps addictive small luxuries may be more recession resistant But then last time round if you didn't lose your job you were pretty soon on average better of as your mortgage rates collapsed, whereas now the pain is pretty much everywhere with, I think, the biggest negative real pay increases on record - worse than the 70s I'm still avoiding consumer stocks; but would like to come out of the recession with a long term holding here

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 22:37

I'm watching too I don't think this Christmas will be utterly horrific in comparison to last year Next Christmas is likely to be more painful; but that's possibly inferring too much from personal experience of seeing packed shops - though I do remember vividly the post Lehman Christmas and the Christmas sales all starting well before Christmas, this year isn't as bad as that Brexit shouldn't be a problem as will by now have moved their supply chains out of UK; or rather it's likely to have been a cost but one that's already been incurred; and if it's less economic activity in the UK then that's not something that's a problem for shareholders

[nithbank] 16/12/2022 22:14

Our local store was heaving with shoppers. Plenty of stock too.

[pugugly] 16/12/2022 11:55

Terrible Christmas likely (imo) - Postal strikes, rail strikes, heating and food costs through the roof so (imo) high chance of lack of orders during crucial sales period.

Also Brexit impact on sales to Europe.

One possibly to watch but too early to buy (imo)

[nithbank] 01/12/2022 07:31

One-off closure costs of international operations. Rest looks very positive.

[terminator101] 01/12/2022 07:25

Swung to a £9m loss huh. But dressed up in a load of "adjusted ebitda" waffle. Mcap of £200 million looks way overvalued imo

[rimmy2000] 02/11/2022 20:49

nope, i am with you, avg 123p buy, a quiet board is always nice so I m loathe to post...

[jeanesy] 02/11/2022 20:25

And again. Seems like i am alone watching these here.

[jeanesy] 01/11/2022 13:00

the rise continuing today. Something must be going well ?

[jeanesy] 31/10/2022 16:45

Shares seem to be staging a bit of a recovery here as we move into Autumn. I am sure Halloween and bonfire night will be giving sales a bit of a boost.

[jeanesy] 30/9/2022 17:07

Price falling back further this week. Retailers in general getting hammered. Will people still buy chocolate in a recession.. I think so myself but higher end chocolate . not sure ?

[sphere25] 14/9/2022 14:51

The short version:

Long a speculative chump change amount of HOTC as a high risk short term play with an exit (small loss) if no momentum.

The long version:

How much risk tolerance do folk have in this market?

HOTC have disappointed recently and you can get clobbered really quickly on all sorts in this market but this buying looks interesting. They're coming in for big chunks of the company here. A couple of trades going through of 3.7m and 3.5m which are significant with a whopping total exchange amount of 12.9m at present.

It is highly illiquid this one and the market makers won't let you buy or sell in size once it starts moving - clearly very important if it moves against you. Tried to follow the buying in to see if sellers can be cleared here but only managed a small 2k at the 140p price point I was willing to pay.

Is it even worth a go? The buying at 140p got closed off. Now the offer is 142p and can't buy at the offer.

I can see 2023 is going to be bad and it is all about 2024 onwards:

"THE LIBERUM VIEW

Despite the short-term profits setback, Liberum Capital is sticking with its bullish stance on Hotel Chocolat, which ‘reported a strong FY22 leading to a beat on the top line and should deliver ahead of expectations on profits.

‘However, the focus will be on its strategic decision to drive greater profitability and cash generation as it focuses on its higher returning business units. This means full-year 2023 will be a transitionary period as the business will reshape accordingly and pair back investment in some of its newer ventures. Together with near-term cost inflation this will lead to some short-term forecast pain for 2023 but lays the foundation for the deliverability of circa 20% EBITDA margins within three years’.

Considering the backdrop, the broker believes management are ‘making the prudent decisions to drive profitability and cash by making less risky decisions.’"


IF these buyers have cleared the sellers (note two major insiders hold 54%), the price could pop quite quickly and the short term trade could work, even if it spikes and then eventually comes back down. IF not, then the price could flatline and an exit around 135p-140p depending on the RSP bid in the market.

In a more bullish market and without a warning, clearly it is easier to chase a price higher and be more attacking but these are treacherous times and who wants to keep getting kicked in the financial gonads?

Bulls vs Bears:

The big buyers here are clearly expecting the worst next year and happier times thereafter, which would result in a very shrewd looking move here in the longer term. The big sellers must believe the opposite and expect that things will deteriorate alot further and that HOTC does not represent value here. However, it looks like the plonkers at Jupiter (3.3% as at 30th June and no news release since) are on the register here too so there could be some forced sales at work too.

Who is right and who is wrong?

Time will tell.

Do I care who ends up right as a short term trader?

Yes. I want a demand imbalance so the bulls win in the very near term so I can lob at a higher price, preferably at least 10% from here. Beyond that, no.

Will the price actually move?

Don't be an idiot! Nothing moves higher in this market!

Should you buy?

Definitely not.


Now let's sit back and watch it do absolutely nothing.


You know when the risk-reward changes, it certainly won't take this level of buying to peek a curiosity trade.


All imo
DYOR

[halfpenny] 11/9/2022 18:59

Too Risky and can go bust after all the hype. The HOTC hotel in St Lucia some say is too Expensive like its Shares. Good value at 90p with everyone tightening their belts due to fuel cost - capped bills will still be very expensive for most and will also hit HOTC costs big time!! Staying away to return at 90p or less.. try the Milky Bar Kid?!!!

[cirlbunting1] 15/8/2022 09:46

Got out of this ~+17% having bought in at 125. The reason why I sold has nothing to do with the company - more to do with needing funds to redeploy elsewhere.

I hope that current investors will see this stock go back to £2+. Wish you all the best & great fortune.

[glavey] 12/8/2022 06:42

Keep posting, sooner or later you'll convince yourself.

[gregpeck7] 11/8/2022 08:54

RSI still very oversold. This will go positive. At some point we will see a circa 20p rise. It will substantially move higher. Just keep the faith and stay patient. This stock is an absolute steal at these levels.

[gregpeck7] 10/8/2022 11:55

https://twitter.com/sleepinvestor/status/1557288543453646848?s=21&t=tHvfgSX0ENb0PDCBDn-PqQ

[gregpeck7] 09/8/2022 08:40

Re rate back finally starting. This has fallen way too far.

[gregpeck7] 08/8/2022 21:46

Great documentary on this evening on ch4. Basically a 1 hour advert for hotel chocolat. Makes you realise what a wonderful and unique company this is. Would not be surprised to see a load of buying interest tomorrow.

[gregpeck7] 08/8/2022 17:45

Great day , but very much the start here after the bashing this has taken. Was over 500p a few months ago.

[gregpeck7] 08/8/2022 12:12

Finally getting moving. 220p plus coming back here v soon.