Home Reit Share Discussion Threads

[solanki2000] 28/1/2016 11:06

Let's hope so

[market sniper3] 28/1/2016 10:55

Going for 200p now here.

[solanki2000] 28/1/2016 10:36

FCA are useless. They can't even regulate AIM where fraud takes place on a daily basis. It's all about fees along with the banks. In this case there is no conflict, issue or anything of the sort. Will all be fine as long as major shareholders approve any bid

[dins1249] 28/1/2016 10:30

Yes FCA - who I suppose are responsible for false market and insider trading.

[market sniper3] 28/1/2016 10:06

No regulators for PIs on the stock market, never as been.

And FCA just look after big business.

[solanki2000] 28/1/2016 10:04

No regulators mate, really not sure what you are talking about.

[market sniper3] 28/1/2016 09:57

What regulators??????????

[dins1249] 28/1/2016 09:47

Don't the regulators have anything at all to say in allowing a false market being created for so long. Though the deadline for Sainsbury's is 2 Feb, surely, either party should be forced to make a proper statement immediately. I guess regulators live in a different world.

[market sniper3] 28/1/2016 09:08

Time for a top up, the pull back keeps happening here and allowing new investors in and those adding.

After talks with a guru last night Im thinking 200p minimum.

[haywards26] 27/1/2016 20:21

They wont get Home for less than 170 imo. The price will likely be 180-190. I am very confident the bid will arrive. It makes total sense for Sainsbury's on multiple levels..

[market sniper3] 27/1/2016 18:54

Yep I cant see anything higher than 180p now.

Its ok working out the financials but its what the board are PREPARED to pay that counts and wether the selling party will accept it. Always a little leeway in the negotiating process.

[someuwin] 27/1/2016 18:48

RNS Number : 2303N

Sainsbury(J) PLC

27 January 2016

27 January 2016

Statement from J Sainsbury plc

Sainsbury's notes the articles recently published in the Times and the Guardian.

We understand that the QIA is not the source of these articles and has not yet taken a final position on the proposed Home Retail Group transaction. Like any other shareholder the QIA would consider any such proposal in detail before making a final decision on its position.

This statement is made in accordance with the Note on Rule 19.3 of the Takeover Code.

[solanki2000] 27/1/2016 18:13

Superb analysis and for the record I believe bang one. In a nutshell HOME has no debt, 200 million cash and 550m loan book. They getting a bargain at anything less than 210p however I feel HOME will sell out for sell. There strategy issit working thus far and the world is changing and everyone is struggling.This also doesn't factor in saving on net asset space as argos stores in sainsbury existing stores, delivery infrastructure and more footfall into sainsbury. Complete sense in this new world of shopping!

[dangersimpson2] 27/1/2016 17:07

25p is the return to shareholders. Of the proposed payment of £340m for homebase £75m will be eaten by seperation costs and is effectvely lost to the group. The rest adds value to the remaining group by strengthening the balance sheet and reducing the pension deficit. So this should be considered as £265m = 33p value to HOME not just the £200m = 25p proposed return. Homebase sale also reducing the lease liability.

When we add in the £550m = 69p net loan book which is essentially just a receivable then you get 102p.

The offer then depends on the valuation of the Argos trading business plus cash net of it's pension liabilities.

Cash is £193m

Pension deficit £100m (will be reduced by £50m but we have already counted that above.)

Provisions £191m - being conservative and assume none of these are transferred with Homebase.

= -£98m = -12p

Overall then 90p + Argos. (Shows what a good but this was sub £1.)

HOME trading (in a poor year) at c.£100m PBT. Homebase sale likley to reduce profit by c.£20m giving £80m PBT or £64m PAT = 8p.

In a good year I expect them to do at least twice that = 16p.

A 170p offer from SBRY would be paying a 10x net bad-year multiple or 5x good-year multiple.

A 210p offer would be a 15x net bad-year multiple or 7.5x good-year multiple.

So even a 210p offer would not be that crazy given that SBRY trade on a fwd multiple of 11, HOME consistently generates higher OCF than earnings, the deal could be debt funded to reduce tax and the potential synergies that have been detailed. Execution risk has reduced with the sale of homebase.

I'm not expecting taht SBRY will go as high as 210p (not without a counterbid anyway) but on balance of probablities it would seem worth them table a higher offer than the current share price.

[jonny33] 27/1/2016 16:31

Well, for fun we might as well speculate on the price, I'm going with £1.65 to £1.70

[imperial3] 27/1/2016 15:14

Does the price sill now include the value of Homebase.Is that worth 25p a share? Is that figure correct?

[jonny33] 27/1/2016 14:41

Remember the Homebase sale has to be agreed by shareholders, so they can't commit to any dates for returning money to shareholders until it's a guaranteed done deal

[spob] 27/1/2016 13:29

In other words, you are not gonna get paid twice over for Homebase

[spob] 27/1/2016 13:26

Obviously if Sainsbury does step up to the plate, they will make an adjustment for the Homebase sale

[yvonne] 27/1/2016 13:19

What concerns me is the lack of official confirmation about a return to shareholders after the homebase sale, are they thinking of keeping hold of the money so it becomes part of the possible main take over talks?

[imperial3] 27/1/2016 10:01

What about Amazon gate crashing?

[tromso1] 27/1/2016 09:16

"It is understood that the supermarket chain is pushing for the first draft of a deal with Home Retail ahead of the take over panel’s 2 February deadline, where Sainsbury’s will need to take it or leave it."

"On Monday Credit Suisse said a deal looked likely to go ahead: “Given the comprehensive list of justifications provided by Sainsbury and a transaction that looks accretive at virtually any price, we expect Sainsbury to announce a deal prior to the deadline,” it said"

[leadersoffice] 27/1/2016 07:56

I don't believe that just Sainsbury's will try and bag Argos... it's very possible someone might try and gate crash the party . If sainsburys rumoured £1.70 is put down on the table, someone will offer £1.85. Let's see what happens. It's getting tantalising close

[nw99] 27/1/2016 07:17

Qatar Ready To Back Sainsbury's Home Retail Bid - The Times

[market sniper3] 26/1/2016 16:18

Plenty of time yet, a week is a long time in the market.