Home Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 16/2/2023 21:04

If the bid (which, again, I don't think remotely credible) is low enough, it may only be enough to pay off Scottish Widows, and they'll ultimately be the ones deciding.

Can't remember the name of the shorter who switched to being long, but looking forward to their analysis of the sh*tshow.

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2023 20:58

While Alverium have transferred the management vehicle they will have had to retain the AIFMD fund manager - you need FCA approval to transfer the fund manager - and they won't give it to transfer to an SPV So most likely that all the liability still sits with Alverium Which then begs the question as to why they did it Arguably for the US listing - but then the whole point of a SPAC is to dodge due diligence and the like

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2023 20:55

Absolutely none, or rather the opposite - every incentive to crash value to get a cheap buy out and better future carry - not that they need a lot of help It's as the FT headline suggests a hidden MBO Amusing if part of the bid includes a settlement of class action (not sure if they can legally do that)

[spectoacc] 16/2/2023 20:49

But that's back to your original point @Wc104 - what incentive for psuedo-Alvarium the manager to manage HOME for maximum shareholder recovery, when Alvarium-backed former Alvarium guy is supposedly bidding to buy the co with alleged Alvarium cash.

And what does all that look like when the inevitable claas action against original Alvarium kicks off.

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2023 20:47

Alverium do manage quite a bit of money so I think there's going to be money behind it

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2023 20:46

Yes - love the RNS We have no connection but we were in a "business relationship" until a month ago

[spectoacc] 16/2/2023 20:45

@nexusltd - I thought the debt was higher and came out with a figure of c.20p, leading to a bid at 50% of that ie 10p (not that the bidder is credible, nor has cash, IMO. The bid is a ruse in my opinion).

I suspect Peterlee's an extreme example - in the books at avg c.£83k, worth c.£30k. On the other hand, HOME have undershot my lowest expectations at every turn - the auction starts on the seriously impaired Peterlee stuff is £5k - the sort in these pictures:


This is fairly typical, and not an auction sale:


So £83k to (say) £15k, less debt, plus fraud, with a business model that arguably doesn't work. Yields should be 20% on junk HMOs for the sheer amount of work & risk involved.

HOME have gone from "spent £950m on £450m of property" to it looking like it could evaporate altogether. 23% rent collection and falling, £15-20m to bring homes up to standard, two fraud investigations, no accounts.

[wskill] 16/2/2023 19:15

And all the rest of the cash was made to vanish London is the new Africa ,poor behaviour indeed from the adviser, bluestar of course has no connection to Alverium .

[nexusltd] 16/2/2023 18:48

I note some stabs at potential valuations. Here are some necessary figures, an example follows.

Equity raised (three issues): GBP853mn
Shares issued total: 790,570,465
Acquisitions: GBP909mn [Properties acquired: 2,239]
Net debt: 853.0-909.0 = (GBP56.0mn)

Example:
No account being made for:
1) Share issues costs.
2) Advisory costs that fall to Home REIT
3) Refurb costs as property Capex is likely to directly add value in at least a 1:1 ratio.

Using PeterLee, as I understand it,(plug in your own number here) overpaid by *3.3
Estimated property market value = GBP909mn / 3.3 = GBP275.5mn
Net asset value = 275.5 - 56.0 (debt) = GBP219.5mn
NAV/share = 27.7p

[ammons] 16/2/2023 18:03

move the decimal point one digit to the left.

[cruelladeville] 16/2/2023 17:55

Then SOHO shares are an absolute steal if HOME gets taken out anywhere bear 60p.

[my retirement fund] 16/2/2023 17:09

Industrial scale fraud here ?

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2023 16:33

Lots invested on basis of false representations - eg total lies

[tiltonboy] 16/2/2023 16:30

wallywoo,

Legal & General also invested into MPL, and then put more in, despite bigger "red flags" than here.

Now that one is a story!

[tradez4dayz] 16/2/2023 16:25

Wally are you aware they don't have to disclose unless they are 5% or more??So you don't actually know when they picked them up, the last list of large shareholders was jn the 2021 annual report.Between now and then it's hard to have a clear picture without access to the register, but to think these houses have bought these shares in the last few months is ludicrous

[essentialinvestor] 16/2/2023 16:19

wally, give it up fella, with respect it's arguably embarrassing now.

[murray_paul] 16/2/2023 16:12

What price did they pick them up for?

Without knowing that, you have no idea what value they place on HOME.

[wallywoo] 16/2/2023 15:47

Sarasin picked up nearly 30m shares in recent months (ie not disclosed before now)


Legal and general picked up over 29m shares (not disclosed before now)


State Street Advisor's picked up 20m shares. (Not disclosed before)



These are all good clues as to whether the share price is going higher or not. Whether the paid trolls on here admit it or not. I would be very worried with a open short position.

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2023 14:57

About that Home Reit bid approach?.?.?.? https://on.ft.com/3YXyQfg Gift link for first three clicks FT picking up on Bluestar/Alvarium front - they've asked HOME if the connections should have been pointed out in todays RNS

[tradez4dayz] 16/2/2023 14:27

Yes, for the fund managers running these, home will be a minute proportion of their book.As such they won't do full dd and just listen to the IA saying all the right things at presentations.Then when it goes wrong funds are often not the most agile of sellers, and so when the share price slides as fast as this they are stuck.Also once a lot of fund managers had lost 60%+ of their investment they probably just thought to roll the dice and let's see.Then while the stocks have been suspended arguably the most concrete information is leaking out and the board/manager has shown how out of depth they are.All the while no one can sell down.

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2023 14:25

Honestly - please - I've never seen a company go bust that didn't have respectable institutional investors on board/jumping on board It means nothing

[wallywoo] 16/2/2023 14:22

Another brand new respected investment advisor been disclosed. Not disclosed before.


State Street Advisor's. 2.5%


Do you believe that all these large investment companies are all wrong and the idiot trolls are right? That this is worth pennies?? My guess is that Home will get taken out at 60p. The large corporate companies will want a line drawn quickly, with more competent people at the wheel.

[murray_paul] 16/2/2023 14:09

> They have a value

But what is that value?

It seems that HOME have vastly overpaid for at least some of their properties, and the ongoing value is dependent on rental income, which there is no independent valuation of, and given what is being revealed about the state of the buildings, it seems likely rental income is overestimated.