Home Reit Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 22/12/2022 13:10

The divis not really a problem; the share price will fall considerably ex div But the borrow fee is a problem

[wallywoo] 22/12/2022 12:17

Maybe Will, but 1 month is not that long to wait. All being well I expect this to be trading in the 50's on its return along with a Feb dividend announcement (which could well be higher with 2023 having higher rental income than 2022). Still believe this is a good risk / reward at these levels.


I will stick until after the results. Interesting about Viceroy but not surprised. 15% dividends is bonkers to short, unless they can dig up a lot more dirt.


Time will tell!!

[williamcooper104] 22/12/2022 11:51

The Times reporting that Viceroy have covered; didn't want to pay borrow fees during what could be a long suspension; and the audit partner at BDO has their out of office email on saying they're back at work in the new year So that's probably what drove yesterdays bounce Would have thought we drift down now ahead of suspension; remember to take away the accrued dividend to get to a clean price for the EV

[wallywoo] 22/12/2022 11:05

Just winding you up mate. You have to have fun on these BB'S.


See any ghosts last night?? Poor tiny Tim!! Would not be looking forward to the future ghost if Viceroy get their way and destroy the house stock in this Reit.

[dodddy] 22/12/2022 10:41

'The UK hedge funds have left this well alone. They don't want to damage an important safety net for UK society. Not like Viceroy who are US based and care not about housing UK homeless'You do post some rubbish. But like saying Robin Hood was legally correct

[wallywoo] 21/12/2022 13:34

Only Fraser Perring at Viceroy left shorting this now and the short % has gone under 1%.


The UK hedge funds have left this well alone. They don't want to damage an important safety net for UK society. Not like Viceroy who are US based and care not about housing UK homeless.


Personally can see this in the 50's when the results come out. Home Reit took on 2459 properties all ready to go, with Tennants and HMO license all sorted. Maybe they could of done it cheaper, but certainly not quicker.


That takes months to sort for each property. The bear brigade will fade away in a month, then the shareholders can continue to enjoy a healthy income stream. Very little property buying or selling to come imho in 2023.

The LDI pension crisis and sharp interest rate hikes has damaged Reits worldwide. These factors have encouraged short attacks in the sector with most on 30% + discounts to NAV. However, 2023 should see the end to interest rate hikes and inflation should come down. These factors will keep Home in the 50's imho for a while to come.

[zoa] 21/12/2022 12:55

At the very least there is a lot of incompetence here amongst management, property valuers, and fund managers, it would be a travesty if no action is taken against them one would think. Glad I got out early.

[1tx] 21/12/2022 11:00

Almost all the buyers in the HOME IPO & subsequent offers were managers of property funds or pension funds investing on behalf of their clients,people who had intrusted them with their savings.Ten shareholders own around 45% of the shares & I suspect around a hundred shareholders own much of the balance of shares on others behalf.At the moment they have lost around half a billion pounds of their clients savings.I suppose they bought because HOME directors told them they were buying high quality fit for purpose housing units that were being let on 20 to 30 year full repairing & insuring inflation linked leases to long established charities & housing associations in this field,these are HOMEs words.The reality is rather different HOME seems to have bought property at very high prices which they don't seem to know how well it has been converted or how much has been spent on modernisation,much seems old & could be expensive to maintain.Most of the organisations tenanting the properties seem fairly newly established,have limited resources & need financial support from HOME.If I was a fund manager with tens of millions of clients funds here I would probably be on the phone to the Serious Fraud Office;but I doubt if we will hear anything from them!

[wallywoo] 20/12/2022 17:05

Not naive at all. I think Home have a load of housing stock which at this share price very conservatively values this Reit.


Perhaps the original investors were naive investing at 98, 109, and 115p per share. But am I, investing at 37.4 and a few more at 34.1 today, time will tell?


Going forward this company are going to be squeaky clean. In comparison with many short attacks, this investment will pay high (15%ish) dividends going forward in my tax free sipp and isa. This fact alone makes a long short attack very unlikely.


In addition, I am comfortable with the purpose of my investment and the good things it tries to achieve. Are you with your short??? The short % fell for the 5th day running today, expensive to hold during XD day!!!

[dodddy] 20/12/2022 16:46

You have a very naive way of looking at a two way market. HOME aren't a charity outfit, they are a dodgy outfit. Don't try and badge them up as white knights for the homeless. They are a badly run property company that has massively overpaid for its asset's by either stupidity (doubtful) or fraudulent activity. Time will tell. Falling knives and all that

[spectoacc] 20/12/2022 15:58

Paid derampers, lol - that one out of a cracker?

There's been loads of really good research posted on this thread - you should have read some of it before you bought.

HOME can go either way, but no one investing in it post-allegations should be at all surprised by what may come out.

DYOR has never been more apt with this one. The "R" doesn't mean reading what HOME want you to read.

[wallywoo] 20/12/2022 15:53

Lol, I love it when you wind up the paid derampers.


Hope you all get visited by 3 ghosts this Xmas guys!!!!

Which of these are doing a UK society more good this Christmas?:

A) a reit owning 2459 houses that provide a home for 11k odd of the most vulnerable in UK society

Or

B) a US based short seller who keeps all their profits for themselves.

You will need to answer this guys when you get visited by those ghosts!!! Xmas eve is only a few days away!!! They should make a film about this! Showing the people in these homes and what their lives would be like without them. And of course, the lives of the Viceroy short sellers and what they do with their profits!!!

[spectoacc] 20/12/2022 15:46

The people who'll suffer if/when HOME turns out to be a charade are those at the bottom - the ones who got to sell the properties to HOME shareholders at c.100% mark-ups will be just fine.

We need more like VR to discover & expose the dodgy dealers before too much damage gets done.

HOME make a song & dance about being a force for social good, but are one step removed from actually doing any.

[dodddy] 20/12/2022 15:36

No,not all. Glad they took the time to do the report.they deserve to make money. Good luck to them

[hybrasil] 20/12/2022 15:36

Wally

While they invest in property for homeless - I dont think and correct me if I a wrong that they set out to help homeless.

They set out to make money by investing in uk govt (supposedly) supported housing for homeless.

[wallywoo] 20/12/2022 14:48

One more note here. Viceroy Reserch are a 100% US based company (Delaware based) founded by a couple of Australians.


Anyone else find it annoying that the US being One of most socially uncaring societies in the world is shorting a UK investment set up to help homeless people in the UK???


Perhaps it's just me!!! But we are in a financial crisis, many will struggle and become financially destitute over the next year or two. I hope all these homes continue to carry on their function of providing a safety net for many that fall now and in the future.

[wallywoo] 20/12/2022 13:07

Let's get 1 thing right here. The only idiots imo are the ones who paid 110 average for the new issue and 2 additional equity issues.


Whether this hits 20s or shoots back up to 50's is pure speculation now. This share is completely driven by fear and sentiment.


You either take a leap of faith and jump in and collect dividends or sell out of fear if you hold.

2459 multiple occupancy houses / flats have a value (average 4.79 persons per property). They are currently averaging around £212k each at this mkt cap (net of debt) 274m / 2459 = £111k capital per property. With £250m debt there's a average £101k debt per property. It has a value, the market will find it but not for a few months!!

I have no doubt there's a need/ market for these homes and that they will be literally a life saver for many. The definition of who is homeless or not is extremely unclear and always will be. These homes (just like council housing) are cheaper than private landlords and people will seek them. It is and has always been a contentious issue. Home Reit or their charity Tennants, did not create these issues. Neither will they not make mistakes/ be exploited along the way.


That's where we are.

[williamcooper104] 20/12/2022 12:03

Pretty confident we will see a 2

[spectoacc] 20/12/2022 08:38

Grinding towards suspension.

Not sure I'd put a target on it tho - depends on the lessees.

[terminator101] 20/12/2022 08:16

£280m mcap massively overcooked if you take out the dodgy accounting. Sub £100m mcap more realistic. Target price 12p

[spectoacc] 19/12/2022 14:36

:))

If only it were just Peterlee... That was just the one I knew well.

Some of the others are if anything more heinous.

But I've only been able to check VR report ones - if HOME actually do release a list of all properties, that'll be really interesting.