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[terminator101] 13/12/2022 10:45

It's headed to 10p IMO as that's the mcap if you take away the dodgy accounting of revenue based on revaluation of the portfolio.

[williamcooper104] 13/12/2022 10:39

Timber Wonder where this gets to before being suspended 20 something looking likely

[williamcooper104] 13/12/2022 10:38

Indeed; for the nth time Government paid does not mean government backed

[williamcooper104] 13/12/2022 10:37

Note that there are long established charities and housing associations who have long operating track records in this area But they won't sign up to HOMEs lease terms Stability comes when HOMEs rents are restructured to a level that proper operators will lease them on

[williamcooper104] 13/12/2022 10:35

If all well, then 40 percent of revenue means there's little to no operating surplus over of rent A normal sale and lease back is done on a c20-45 percent rent/EBITDAR At best we have the equivalent of 100 percent rent/operating surplus ex rent or close to it

[williamcooper104] 13/12/2022 10:33

The tenants debt situation is the leases with HOME, these are set at c40 percent of the charities revenues Two problems with this; relies upon performance risk of the charities - they have to provide 3 hours min support to each tenant, deal with tenants moving in and out, and manage the capex risk as some tenants will be to say the least a little bit more difficult than your average AST tenant These charities are almost all recently formed with little operating track record; for the first year of their operations they get capital equal to the rent that is charged Plus even if all goes well

[zoa] 13/12/2022 10:33

Tenants supported by government? Yes but to what extent, certainly not index linked to match the rents paid to Home. Tenants will be trying to cope with vastly increased energy costs and wage bills. Local Authorities will be strapped for cash and will be looking to make savings anywhere that they can find.

[kimboy2] 13/12/2022 10:02

OK so we know that the valuation of the properties is significantly above the VP valuations. We also know that the valuations are based on tenants who are not as good a quality as that envisioned in the valuations.

The tenants business models are probably sound. There is a demand for what they are doing and it is supported by government. I don't know what each tenants debt situation is, but I suspect that their income is secure.

The first question is whether a proper valuation, which will be less than present but greater than VP, trigger the LTV covenants. If they do are they reparable, for example cutting the dividend for a period to get LTV back into kilter.

Once that is known then we will have some idea on valuation.

[spectoacc] 13/12/2022 06:59

@elbrus55 - there's plenty of research on posts above, suspect you'd take a different view if you read it.

HOME has bought the horse sh*t at $2 in your analogy. And are stuck with it. Market value $1.

[tradez4dayz] 12/12/2022 23:43

So who is going to write the book on this one?

[dodddy] 12/12/2022 21:41

Probably delayed sells from earlier printed late

[wskill] 12/12/2022 20:44

Seems to be a lot of buys after hours shorts closing before suspension ?

[elbrus55] 12/12/2022 17:41

Why? If a major grocer has agreed to pay you $x pa for the next 20 years then it is a pretty solid asset. Sure you can argue it is worth,.say, 15% more or less than the price it is traded at but ... ponzi scheme? How?Is the UK indexed-linked gilt a ponzi scheme too?

[williamcooper104] 12/12/2022 17:30

There's the lipstick on the collar, the huge and unexplained credit card bill, the lawyers freezing your assets (the immenent suspension), the dodgy company you've been keeping Yep no 100 percent smoking gun; but a lot of smoke

[williamcooper104] 12/12/2022 17:28

It's like being accused of having an affair and being unable to explain the huge credit card bill (eg what the EPCs are and what was spent on refurb capex) It's not a smoking gun; but really not a good look

[george stobart] 12/12/2022 17:23

Lynne Fennah should be investigated for the paid and suffering she has caused to HOME and Empiric investors

Attrato the UK's worst asset should also be investigated as Supermarket Income REIT is the next biggest ponzi scheme

[spectoacc] 12/12/2022 16:58

Jury is still out on a number of allegations, but anyone with Google and half an hour can prove many of the others - plenty of us on here have already.

Is there fraud/wrongdoing? Unproven. Have HOME paid more than double the market price for a lot of their properties, and installed some very curious "charities" as supposedly long-term lessees? Absolutely.

So the accusation of an extra-marital affair has been made, and I've CCTV evidence from the hotel room.

[elbrus55] 12/12/2022 16:52

Maybe.Accusations without foundation can be very difficult to disprove. E.g. I could accuse you of having an extramarital affair and you could only disprove this if you had had an independent witness following you every hour of the day.(I'm assuming you are married!). It is not realistic to disprove this accusation. The accusation is perfectly plausible but at the same time cannot be proved or disproved.There isn't actually any evidence of wrongdoing is there? A lot of inference.Buying properties at very low prices and selling them with a markup is both the foundation of a good business and a marker signal for fraud.Jury is still out.

[dodddy] 12/12/2022 15:41

And the muppets at M&G loading up a few weeks ago. (Albeit with other people's money)

[terminator101] 12/12/2022 15:17

Oh dear. Suppose that's what happens when you as good as confirm that there are serious accounting issues huh.

[1tx] 12/12/2022 14:34

I make it £853m gross raised from shareholders in three fund offers including IPO.Loan issues in addition.

[wskill] 12/12/2022 14:30

Well the market is telling us that the company is worth around £100m when you take of the debt is it right I wonder.

[spectoacc] 12/12/2022 13:59

@wallywoo - suggest you read previous posts on this thread. They've spent about £900m on at best £450m of property.

Auditors will no doubt caveat everything - I'd love to see what Knight Frank have to say tho.