Their NAV is already deep below share price at suspension date,
and with upcoming missed accounts - this definitely going to be another wave of write-downs/losses,
therefore it's not a question of whether share price will dive on restoration but rather how deep it is going to be (esp. considering the fact what their business model turned out to be unrealistic on a first place), will it be complete wipe-out or some pennies can be salvaged for sorrow beer party? |
 Like it or not, it's how it works. HOME will pay legal costs, any FCA fine, any settlement.
Had it in mind shares were relisting soon but checking back:
"The Company now expects to publish the unaudited interim results for the period ended 28 February 2023 in March 2025, the unaudited interim results for the period ended 29 February 2024 in April 2025, and the annual report and accounts for the year ended 31 August 2024 in the second quarter.
· The Board and AEW remain committed to the restoration of trading in the Company's ordinary shares as soon as is practically possible. Following publication of all the outstanding financial results an application to the FCA for restoration of the Company's listing will be made."
So this week or next for one, April for another, "2nd qtr" for the last, and only looking to relist beyond that. You'd hope they might have sold the remainder by then, to avoid a relisting, but no sign of that yet.
Fail to see why it's all taking so long - we mostly had HOME figured out before it delisted :) |
Yes, Specto and WC104 are spot on with comments about Alvarium and 'Hocus Pocus' though I'd agree with you that the new board and manager are doing a decent job of quietly maximising shareholder returns from a very distressed base.
It looks likely that later this year the portfolio will have been sold and the cash will be ready to return to shareholders. At this point it will be a very bad look for the FCA if they block investors from getting their cash. Cash that they haven't been able to access for over 2 years because of the fraudulent actions of Alvarium an FCA regulated firm.
It's also at this point that 'Hocus Pocus' will have to answer the awkward question of why their clients deserve to be paid a bigger slice of the depleted capital than the other HOME scandal victims.
If Woodford is anything to go by then 40% their clients returns will be going to pay 'Hocus Pocus' their fees. Not sure how well this will go down in the press. |
Yep the shareholder suit is totally nuts |
I've been watching for a while and in all fairness the new board and manager have been quietly making the necessary adjustments to secure maximum shareholder returns - best course of action for all shareholders would be to drop the lawsuit (basically suing themselves, lol) and let the company wind down. |
Got to laugh - so HOME can deny everything for the shareholder group action, yet claim against the former manager for pretty much the same.
We know which one is right of course (the latter), but doesn't bode well for any early returns. |
Yes, hats off to them. One of the most impressive things about Viceroy is that their lead analyst Gabriel Bernade works from a garage in Melbourne. Despite this his valuations ended up being a lot more accurate than the ones Knight Frank made up by assiduously following the RICS green book guidelines.Bernade's linkedin profile states'Accountant by trade, cynical by nature'The more I learn about Home REIT the more cynical I become. |
Shareholders should thank the shorters :) |
Yep - if Viceroy had waited 6 months they'd have gotten a zero |
Main reason it isn't a zero is that they hadn't got back to target gearing level after previous capital raise, before the fraud was exposed. |
That this isn't a zero is down to having Lloyd's as the lender who didn't pull the plug A non high street lender would likely have called in the loan |
I've mine marked at 10p on the basis that the outcome should be a bit better but need to have that hope reflected in the price Fortunately I'm all out of DGI at 20p Unfortunately I stopped out and went back in too many times before that |
No I think you might be thinking of Boatman Capital, though like Southey Capital I don't think they were ever really serious players in the Home REIT game.Sarasin is an investment house that prides itself in ESG. They manage a lot of money for charities so they're probably keen to get Home of their register, given the somewhat questionable role so called charities have played in this debacle. Another 25 million shares traded today and it's up to 11p. I'll be keeping mine marked at 10p (same price as my other basket case DGI9) |
Missed the RNS, thanks @nexusltd. Were Sarasin the fund who called HOME short, then reversed just before suspension? They must hate themselves if so..
Who the buyer is would be interesting. Is there more than 10p of value in HOME? I'd say definitely yes on the property itself, but definitely "not sure" considering the fines (FCA), legal actions (which could go either way), & timescales to final winding up (years & years of costs first?).
Not convinced 10p is low enough for the risk/time. |
@specto re:#1543
31/01/25 9.5m @ 10pps & 29/01/25 2 trades for 5.2mn each also @ 10pps.
Sarasin reduced from 6.97%,55.1mn pieces to 4.65%, 36.8mn pieces = delta 18.3mn
1.6mn pieces unaccounted for. |
The earlier ones were for peanuts, but that looks like 9.5m at 10p - that's fairly serious.
One of the idiot fund managers selling out? In which case, who's the buyer, and why not wait a short while until relisting. |
Some more trades printed at 10p.
If there's somebody reputable offering 10p per share, I'd be tempted... |
Hmmm, some more off book trades look to have been logged. It now seems to be trading at 8p so a hundred percent gain so far this year. Onwards and upwards. |
Well we'll have to see about that, you've been right about most HOME REIT affairs in the past so you could well be right again. The possibility of FCA fines is on the risk register on page 41 so they're not denying that it's a distinct possibility. Punishing defrauded investors isn't exactly encouraging growth in the UK economy though is it?AlTI Global that brought Alvarium isn't quite as blasé as you are about the possibility of FCA fines. From their latest AlTI Global SEC fillings:'....it is possible that the UK FCA may determine that certain breaches have occurred, and it may seek to impose financial penalties or other outcomes on one or more group entities, that may potentially be material.'The fun never ends here. |
What will actually happen is the FCA will fine HOME (ie its shareholders). Alvarium - who've already had a reorganisation and hived off the HOME part - will turn out not to have the funds for any redress (IMO).
Look how eg Simon Lee has sailed merrily on, nearly got his new fund away (bought API's assets instead).
What would be interesting is if those in on selling HOME the properties at 50%-100% mark-ups were pursued - but by whom? And didn't both original guys quit years ago, in their 30's, with alleged ill health? I might have mis-remembered that part but a lot of time has now passed for assets to shift ownership and jurisdiction (Venice, anyone?).
What should irk shareholders is some of the original sellers - who sold to the Venice crook who flipped on to HOME with the allegedly fake-o CIC tenants and allegedly no CapEx - were able to buy back their best properties at a fraction of the price at Allsops over the past year.
HOME, like Woodford, has been one for the ages. |
Well 10p (which is what I've marked HOME down to) would be a nice return of capital for the time being whilst we wait for the FCA to do its job and enforce Alvarium to implement a redress scheme. The much delayed annual report reads like an extended charge sheet of Alvarium maladministration, the new directors and AEW have virtually done the FCA's job for them. The FCA got there in the end for Woodford and they'll get there in the end here. Ultimately it's very simple what needs to be delivered- resolution and justice, then everyone can move on from this. That's what regulators are there for. |
Agreed, 10-20p for eventual return. Shareholders interests would probably be best served by a settlement, which would get Alvarium and associated crooks largely off the hook, but enable more money to come back.
Be interesting to see where it does trade - are there enough Wallywoos to create a buyers market? |
Guess it'll trade about 10p if it does re-list |
Yep - saw that - it's as of August 23 so of course may not be 27.5p now Clearly anything close to that would be a great result Still think it ends up at around 15p |
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