Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 15/11/2016 10:42

Hector

As expected, the big downdraft in the PM prices on Friday has reduced the outstanding Open Interest (OI) in the Dec16 contracts on COMEX. However they are still extremely high.

Current situation: Dec16 Gold OI = 841.3 tonnes and Dec16 Silver OI = 14,358 tonnes.

With c. 12 trading days to go before delivery warrants on these contracts will be required it will therefore require c. 70.1t of gold contracts and c. 1,196t of silver contracts to be cancelled per day - which continues to look bearish, as clearly these levels remain very elevated and have to be reduced - so more volatility looks likely.

Total Gold OI on COMEX = 1,568t and total Silver OI = 27,894t. A bit lower than the record levels seen in August but still very high indeed.

I find it interesting that (so far) 1,417.6t of silver have actually been withdrawn from the COMEX this year - unprecedented as far as I know! This equates to 74.5% of all the contracts that have stood for delivery.

Bit different with gold as only 30.01t have been withdrawn compared to 188.6t that have stood for delivery (ie 15.9%).

Chip

[topicel] 15/11/2016 09:25

Cash is king, but not if it gets devalued by inflation or just because it gets taken away as in India.

In the present climate my view has been swayed to the store of value that is PMs Pixi, mainly because nothing has been said about the trillions of debt and slowing economic growth globally and lukewarm US performance whatever Trump might have in mind which will take effect in 2018 at the earliest.

We do know cash is good for now to spend but equally, if inflation goes up in tandem with Trump's plans as has to happen - especially if he deports 2-3m then wages must rise to entice more local workers and thus prices - then sitting on cash is daft.

Buy some PMs... ;)

Topicel

[friendzarin] 15/11/2016 09:14

Nice one Pixi. Lets all do that and you can then be the first one back in -)

[pixi] 15/11/2016 09:07

The best answer to market volatility is to stay in cash. As we all know, the market never goes up or down in a straight line. Some days it's up, some days it's down, and other days it moves sideways. Let the trend be your friend and do not attempt to fight it because you are going to lose. At the moment, the short-term trend is down, the intermediate trend is down and the long-term trend is down. It's like a drunk staggering up the street, two steps forward, one step back.

Do the sensible thing: stand back until everything settles down and wait for a trading opportunity. It could take a week, a month, or longer. Who cares, cash is king.

[muffster] 15/11/2016 07:37

Including you it seems.

[dt1010] 15/11/2016 07:09

Lauders, its the silver price that's the primary price drover here, not a fund selling, but you know that.

A big bounce is coming in the whole PM sector, when the metals start reversing...for traders only it will be the timing of that that's of most interest.

To investors, this volatility is irrelevant to maintaining their long term investments. Not many private "investors" can look further ahead than around a day or so.

[lauders] 15/11/2016 00:58

I certainly hope it was the last big drop Topicel. I am not a trader as stated before and currently I am losing thousands a day. I am determined not to try and time the market as I cannot watch all the time anyway, but some strength here would be welcome. Vanguard are certainly not helping matters and who knows how many more shares they are planning to "dump".

I see the FRES chart/pattern is almost a mirror image of HOC so we know it is not HOC specific and once Vanguard stopping selling hopefully order will be restored here at least!

[topicel] 14/11/2016 21:43

There will always be those who have to sell and Vanguard have decided for whatever reason they should offload some.

But they are being bought as it takes two sides to make a trade so, when considered like that I agree with Friendzarin that the drop here is not so bad given the wider turmoil in PM stocks. Possibly today was the last big drop?

What we holders do know is the figures in the last set of results were good/great and even at $17 an ounze HOC will be doing better than the same time last year. This will be reflected in better numbers in the next quarter too unless a massive decline in the price of silver and gold happens. Potentially plenty of bargain hunters will be out at these prices given any turnaround in PMs. I would if I had the readies.

Topicel

[kfr20] 14/11/2016 19:57

It's quite remarkable how fickle the market can be. Could anyone have forecast the drop across precious metals. Manipulation at its finest or just because someone got bored before throwing the toys out of the pram. Fun and games, and further to fall I imagine.

[saturdaygirl] 14/11/2016 19:22

I see my 2.35 got hit .. another feather in the cap ;)

[friendzarin] 14/11/2016 19:09

Re new R N S Vanguard have not helped in reducing in this way at this time and this must have exacerbated the drop. It's a shame they couldn't have managed to sell earlier into strength. Let's hope we now consolidate from here

[hectorp] 14/11/2016 18:19

chip

Yes it is ( off the board end Nov) .


Wee rally in gold, or end of the drop..
FR and some US stocks up, HOC closed too early to take advantage.

[hectorp] 14/11/2016 18:13

chip

Yes it is ( off the board end Nov) .


Wee rally in gold, or end of the drop..
FR and some US stocks up, HOC closed too early to take advantage.

[chipperfrd] 14/11/2016 16:34

Hi H,

No, it's always been about the Dec16 contract for both metals. November is termed a 'non-delivery' month.

But the Dec16 contract goes 'off-the-board' at the end of November. That is probably what you are thinking of.
Chip

[hectorp] 14/11/2016 16:29

chip,
as you see I remembered your post about the open interest of over a week earlier. I felt it was a sanguine warning not to jump in , when I had been going to pile into FR. I offer you a vote of thanks, for saving me some sleepless nights over the last two trading days. Now - the point being though, that there is a LOT of actual metal in the mix, not simply about paper.
Was it not the November 16 contract you mentioned? Not sure if there is a Nov one, you may have meant Dec.
cheers
H

[dt1010] 14/11/2016 16:23

A lot of negative talk on seeking alpha re gold and silver
Tut tut tut

[daybreakers] 14/11/2016 16:07

I'll be buying at 204-8

[onedayrodders] 14/11/2016 14:51

Hhmnn AG starting to look very dicey ..seems the market is waiting for DOW to weaken and when it doesn't PM's weaken again

[chipperfrd] 14/11/2016 14:41

Actually, the threatened US$14B was for mortgage fraud, they have only received a 'wrist-slap' of just US$36M for the gold/silver rigging - but probably due to their turning state evidence on the other banks.

[chipperfrd] 14/11/2016 14:27

Hector,

I note your earlier comments about silver and the high levels of open interest on the COMEX for the Dec16 contracts for both metals.

Thanks to the remembrance holiday on Friday in the US current data is delayed.

At last update there was 927 tonnes outstanding on the gold contract and 15,921 tonnes outstanding on the silver contract.

These levels are still way too high, but the paper smash of the PMs will likely have caused large Long closures so I think we can expect the end-of-month levels for those standing for delivery to be much reduced with 12 trading days still left to go.

However, actual withdrawals of silver metal from the COMEX vaults are running at 1,411 tonnes so far this year, so it is far from being 'just about paper'. Time will tell if the physical market will finally wrench price discovery from decades of paper derivative control.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 14/11/2016 14:16

Topicel (post #8193),

You obviously missed the court case in the US earlier this year!

Deutsche Bank has already admitted to rigging of the London gold & silver market in collusion with other banks.

There is an ongoing class action against all these banks.
Chip

[onedayrodders] 14/11/2016 13:53

Who's laughing now



Go to 3 mins in and imagine how Obama was feeling last week shaking hands with Trump in the Whitehouse !

Revenge is a dish best served by becoming President

[dt1010] 14/11/2016 12:25

Gold is the ULTIMATE protection.

Look at seeking alpha. Bearish on gold.

'Gold is acting as I thought it likely would this summer. It reminds me of its fake-out 1987 rally. The excessive optimism of the gold stocks (NYSEARCA:GDX) this year also reminded me of 1987.
What I did not know was what oil and platinum would do. Now we have our answer, interim as it always is.
Thus, I continue to find gold unattractive for new money investment. I also continue to want to see capitulation by the specs on the futures market occur, and at an encouraging price level, before putting capital into either gold bullion or stocks.
The way oil, platinum, silver and the US dollar are acting, I am able to project gold breaking through its cyclical lows to $1,000 and then possibly far below that. Markets exist in part to fool traders, and gold just might do that.
Note as always that when I discuss gold, it's as a tradeable investment. I'm completely excluding gold held as a permanent store of value, ideally as physical metal in one's possession'.

For the record, believing lower prices are coming, I have sold some traders, part of my holding to buy back in with lower down, IF lower prices come.