Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[stevea171] 07/6/2021 21:49

22:03. Castillo is 75,000 ahead with 95.3% counted.

[m w] 07/6/2021 21:23

France 24 has fujimori ahead with a narrow lead

[rathkum] 07/6/2021 19:24

Wonder how the market would react to a Castillo victory. Fear Hochschild will remain uninvestible until a clear policy details emerge from the new government.

[stevea171] 07/6/2021 17:15

The vote result is going to the wire!
16.7 million votes counted (93.5%) and only 4,000 between the two. Seems that the rural votes are mostly favouring Castillo, Lima has favoured Fujimori as expected. With Lima counting completed Castillo may be the more likely winner at this stage.

Peru's Southern Copper down 4.7% ATM.

[rougepierre] 07/6/2021 16:05

Hi KK...words of wisdom as usual...I hope you fare well?

[keisersoze] 07/6/2021 15:44

You forgot to add that GBPUSD has moved from under 1.2 to over 1.4.

Silver looks set to break out, so I've held some positions here. Also think that Castillo's bark may be worse than his bite. Says he wants 70% of mining profits to stay in Peru - I'm sure that will be negotiated downwards, but it is a headwind for sure.

[knocknock] 07/6/2021 15:39

Still a gap to fill RP at £1.60

[imastu pidgitaswell] 07/6/2021 15:31

5 years of cost inflation...
higher actual or mooted taxes, both profit and sales-based
2016 went too high
Bitcoin's appearance
They're just out to get us


Take your pick...

:-)

[rougepierre] 07/6/2021 15:11

You make some very good points...

In July 2016, silver hit a short term high of 20.9...gold was 1365...

FRES was over 2000...

HOC hit 314 less than a month later...

US inflation soaring...silver hit $28.6 last week...gold hit $1916...

Short of manipulation, explain this disparity...

[rougepierre] 07/6/2021 14:49

I was previously in HOC and switched to FRES and POLY because of the uncertainty...

Actually, the HOC price has held up pretty well in relative terms.

Clearly the election is too close to call and, whatever their stated policies,Castillo and Fujimori will still be hamstrung by a divided Congress...

If Castillo wins we should expect the price to be marked down, which could be a buying opportunity and the opposite if Fujimori wins, but...

Because it is so tight and the candidates are so polarised, I can see years of strife, whoever wins

If you were a miner in Peru, would you be investing a penny in CAPEX right now...

I wouldn't...

And therefore, because markets hate uncertainty I've decided to steer clear.

That doesn't mean it won't be a brilliant trading opportunity for the brave...

AIMO as usual and good luck to all...

PS this isn't a deramp...its just one opinion in the debate. I'm certainly open to alternate views.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 07/6/2021 14:04

So no news, in fact. Ta.

[prettygreen] 07/6/2021 14:00

It's either a tree shake or it's because Castillo is gaining in the election count (but still behind)

[bad gateway] 07/6/2021 13:59

They're following the news from peru on the PTAl thread and general consensus seems to be too close to call for some hours still due to the expats vote I believe.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 07/6/2021 13:56

News from Peru?

Only with 5k now, but thinking of adding more here - if I know what is the reason for the plunge.

[stevea171] 07/6/2021 08:54

From a miner's point of view does it really matter who has won yesterday's election?

Fujimori. "The former congresswoman, has promised various bonuses to people, including a $2,500 one-time payment to each family with at least one COVID-19 victim. She has also proposed distributing 40% of a tax for the extraction of minerals, oil or gas among families who live near those areas."

The final result probably won't be known for a few days.
Lima vs rest of the country.

Peru is the second largest copper exporter in the world and mining accounts for almost 10% of its GDP and 60% of its exports, so Castillo’s initial proposal to nationalize the nation’s mining industry set off alarm bells among business leaders. But regardless of who gets picked to succeed Sagasti on July 28, investors will remain skittish.

“A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to cheer about even if his rival Keiko Fujimori wins,” Nikhil Sanghani, emerging markets economist with Capital Economics, wrote in an investors note Friday.

“Fujimori is a controversial figure who is under investigation for corruption charges. Given Peru’s recent history, it’s not hard to imagine that this could spark impeachment proceedings,” he said.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/6/2021 13:50

Personally I think it’s been a fantastic swing trade and I’ve done very well out of the last 4 to 6 weeks or so.

Volatile but going nowhere - great stuff.

[davidspringbank] 05/6/2021 07:30

Too risky to have any money in it - no wonder Eduardo sold.

[nicd] 04/6/2021 12:52

That was a short lived drop! -4%

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/6/2021 14:13

Doing relatively well - far fewer now having loaded up sub 185 and offloaded on the way up.

Tempted to add some back but much other stuff is also tempting.

[dogwalker] 03/6/2021 11:34

Your last sentence is interesting Sotolo.Glad I sold my shares here then. Didn't realise I was contributing to Peru's problems by owning a tiny bit of 'Hochschild'.

[sotolo] 03/6/2021 07:46

Fujimoro’s main platform is freeing her dad who was found guilty of embezzlement and bribery and is the first elected head of state to be extradited to his home country, tried, and convicted of human rights violations. Fujimori dad was specifically found guilty of murder, and bodily harm. I think Castillo will be better for Peru tho not initially our share price. However I think he will tax us less than expected - he is taxing supper profits from v high copper which we don’t have, and Fujimoro will tax more as a post Covid financial hole needs filling. Peru has the worst Covid in the world, and terrible poverty amongst the indigenous population so maybe it behaves us th think of them too, in a way we are the problem Castillo is trying to remedy and if it costs us a bit may be worth it.

[338] 31/5/2021 12:44

The silver price is going to fly high $100+

hxxps://silverseek.com/article/us-mint-admits-theres-global-silver-shortage