Hg Capital Share Discussion Threads

[makinbuks] 05/11/2021 16:29

They do, I agree. It just seems quite a while since we saw a clean cash exit demonstrating the valuation ascribed by the manager

[tykethat] 05/11/2021 15:56

Surely the team at HG deserve some trust from holders?

[makinbuks] 05/11/2021 09:06

Surely you have to question an increase in the value of an investment simply because you have pumped more money in, together with your associates. There is no independent objective process behind that valuation. Taken with a number of other transactions where they have sold from one fund to another this is a little worrying

[grahamg8] 05/11/2021 07:21

Well my calculation says the Litera investment only provides 3.0p immediate uplift. But wtf HGT seem to be on a winner.

[1318myl] 07/10/2021 13:59

Is there any news to cause the drop today

[jaws6] 29/9/2021 11:36

NEW VIDEO, Good talk

[grahamg8] 28/9/2021 16:28

Took the plunge today. I usually shy away from unquoted companies held indirectly because the valuations are pretty much guesswork. HGT passed the test because they have a long track record of delivering value, and that can't be achieved by inflating valuations. A quick check of their 38 holdings at 30/6 suggests that the investments are realised in under 5 years. Indeed the only one bought before 2016 was Achilles which has now sold. Portfolio book value increased by over 70% from investment amount. Recent disposals above book eg Miratech +50%, Traceone +33%, Eidosmedia +45%, Allocate +48%. Happy days.

[macc1] 06/9/2021 17:45

Here's a video for this mornings results:

[robsy2] 06/9/2021 06:54

So glad I bought this. I remember thinking it was fully priced , no discount etc but it goes from strength to strength.

[steve c1] 06/9/2021 06:52

Absolutely. If the 20% premium carries on then over £5 likely.

[brexitplus] 06/9/2021 06:24

Excellent results, as usual.

[brexitplus] 04/8/2021 12:43

HGT generally sells at quite a premium to quoted NAV its holdings, so the @ctual premium is hard to assess. It may actually be at a real discount. It all depends on how the value of each holding is assessed.

I have the same problem with GROW and OCI.

[tykethat] 04/8/2021 10:02

@martindjzz Thats the quandary of investing in HG capital and is the reason why I buy more on a monthly basis. In reality I have no idea if the current buying price is good bad or indifferent.

What I do know is that HG would be one of the last investments that I would sell.

[martindjzz] 04/8/2021 09:26

I've been looking to add for some time but the premium gets ever wider so will keep waiting.

[steve c1] 03/8/2021 16:01

Not sure but this is my largest holding now and it's on a 19% premium. Sell, top slice or do nothing, decisions decisions.

[games] 03/8/2021 14:52

Anyone any idea what is driving the price here

[makinbuks] 13/5/2021 09:52

Yes, the continuing growth in Revenue and EBITA of the top holdings is the ante-dote to that argument of overvaluation on a historic basis. I guess I would have three concerns a) if there were a general downturn (unlikely) could these software support firms maintain that pace of growth; b) looking again at the recent disposals I am reminded about the incestuous nature of them and how NAV is very much an in house exercise and c) we are rated about as highly as you could be (deservedly so) against NAV so we will be hurt badly by any setbacks.

None the less I agree I bought a few years back, added about 25% later and am a long term do nothing holder

[robsy2] 12/5/2021 17:08

just had a look at the Q1 report . Looks fine . This is a holding that I never really think about much , never causes any problems.

[makinbuks] 26/4/2021 15:05

If you watch the Fundsmith Q & A session following their AGM on U tube, Terry Smith illustrates this point with a very good chart. He simply illustrates the rating of some of his best investments several years ago compared to stocks with more of a value rating and proves what is obvious if you think about it, that quality has a price but also delivers

[skyship] 26/4/2021 07:48

RAM - fair comment. But did you take a look at who pocketed those JPEL shares dumped by Barings?

As for the portfolio - 46% now represented by French consumer products group Swania; and the recent NAV uplift suggests they have revalued that holding in a positive direction.

[rambutan2] 26/4/2021 03:29

SKY, for as long as I can remember you've said that HGT is fully/overvalued. But the real opportunity cost has surely been not to hold it. Sometimes it's worth paying up for quality, leaving it be and letting it compound. My stakes in HGT and HVPE are up multiples from when I bought them and continue to outperform.

Now, I certainly wouldn't have advocated holding JPEL (in its various different guises) for the long term, because the managers, right from the early days have disappointed. Currently yes there is a potential discount trade there, but how much of that nav is actually realisable at the marked price. Some of that portfolio is looking rather aged to me. No where to hide once deep into liquidation mode. The OZ fund that sold out recently is a sector specialist, and knows its stuff. So I wonder why is did sell. Interestingly, it has held onto its position in HGT.

[skyship] 25/4/2021 19:39

ItO - its all about opportunity cost. HGT fully valued; JPEL grossly under-valued. So an opportunity to trade the anomaly; exactly as I did with NBPE this past month!

I admit it is only for those with a more activist nature; but it is those who tend to outperform...

GLA

[its the oxman] 25/4/2021 17:48

Guess if you look at position today a good short term trading case can be made for jpel but look at their share price performance over the last three years v hgt and you can see why hgt still remains attractive in many investors eyes.

[skyship] 25/4/2021 12:44

Hmm - agreed, fantastic track record; but there is such a thing as valuation. Clearly more limited upside when a trust stands at a premium. Also the 1.5% yield is rather miserly to say the least; though of course what isn’t paid out helps to massage the NAV.

Still, you’re right to buy into a PE Trust, I just question as to whether you might do better buying into one of the many others, including quite a few on 20%+ discounts and higher yields.

As I posted on the PE thread last month, I was luckily a strong bull of NBPE which have since jumped 17%, yet remain on a 20% discount. The other I mention there is more speculative – JPEL. On offer at 127c with a 187c NAV, in spite of the fact that they are in liquidation mode. So, with the discount at 32.1%, clearly considerably undervalued IMO.

[markyp23] 23/4/2021 18:27

I was buying today

NAV/financial update is coming in May
Track record is fantastic and fall in NAV end Dec to Feb announcement is all currency related
Expect that the underlying NAV at end March will be higher than current share price