Hg Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 15/3/2020 03:19

Even HGT can't defy gravity:

Our valuation policy is applied consistently, in accordance with the IPEV Valuation Guidelines. Each company has been valued individually, based on the trading multiples of comparable businesses and relevant and recent M&A activity; this resulted in an average EBITDA multiple for the top 20 buyout investments of 19.8x (19.5x at 30 June 2019).

[steve c1] 13/3/2020 16:44

Anyone know whay happened to justify such a drop? Thought this might hold up better than most especially after recent results.

[robsy2] 10/3/2020 06:06

Indeed, market beating performance on the up and the downside.

[rambutan2] 10/3/2020 03:50

Wasn't an ideal day to release results! But they were, of course, excellent:

[p1nkfish] 11/11/2019 08:28

Yes, looks like coming towards end of some valuation cycle or other. They are not burying their heads in the sand.

[psync] 11/11/2019 07:47

Impressive results in the Q3 report this morning. NAV is given as 249.8p so the share price might be toppy but perhaps not out of touch with reality. This sounds a little bit forboding:

"Despite the persisting heat of the current market, we do continue to see attractive investment opportunities in our target clusters, just as we did in the closing stages of the last period of high valuations, in 2005 to 2008"

games - I also bought Pantheon along with HGT, though much more recently. Good to hear you're still holding. Have you trimmed those positions back over the years?

[games] 10/11/2019 15:44

Steve,

Yes hg did hold up relatively well, It was my first purchase, and I paid £6 something, I also bought PIN at the same time at £3 something. Hg ticked along nicely, while pin if I remember halved again by the following march.

I still hold both positions.

If there is a financial downturn, and your good at timing, pin may be worth watching.

Agree the chart looks to be getting ahead of itself, time will tell if there is a reason for this.

[skyship] 10/11/2019 09:09

Aided by recent press comment the share price has spiked too far - now provides a 1% NAV premium and a sub-2% yield.

Seems clearly over-priced, especially as the valuation of the 42% of the portfolio in Europe will have suffered somewhat from the recent strength in GBP.

[steve c1] 08/11/2019 19:54

Going great guns this one. One of my largest holdings. Will be interesting to see how it holds up in any downturn, 2008 - 09 didn't see it fall very far.

[rambutan2] 11/9/2019 16:20

Yes, sometimes it's worth paying up for quality growth:

[andyj] 09/9/2019 13:10

Bought in at 201, now wishing my entire portfolio was in this fund. An outstanding performance given the turbulence of the past year.

[p1nkfish] 09/9/2019 08:10

Absolutely spot on.

[robsy2] 09/9/2019 07:47

Excellent results.

[robow] 09/9/2019 07:14

Roger Mountford, Chairman of the Company, commented:

"Over the twelve months to 30 June 2019, the top 20 companies, that make up 88% of our portfolio by value, reported sales growth of 26% and EBITDA growth of 35%. These are the strongest trading figures we have ever reported and evidence the quality of the businesses we own."

[p1nkfish] 22/8/2019 08:21

If this idea is right then PE valuations will turn when liquidity taps are turned, when Gov's panic. Big ECB statement due.

Thoughts? Might be over thinking this.

[p1nkfish] 22/8/2019 08:17

The PE side in general tends to be illiquid so I'm thinking some money is currently avoiding or reducing PE exposure in expectation of a liquidity event some time relatively soon - say 6 months or so.

I might be rationalizing something away but I do think liquidity will matter more soon than it has in the recent past and HGT is a partial symptom along with others.

[p1nkfish] 21/8/2019 17:38

Sky, I can envisage an Autumn of turbulence.

Say no more than will be hard to call when to retake a stake here and other places.

With a bit of luck some really juicy opportunities will arise for those with the cash and the guts.

[skyship] 20/8/2019 13:26

Posted on 16th June on the PE thread - see below.

Looks as though reality kicking in here; and pinkfish may well be right with his projection.

===============================================

HGT didn't quite achieve their target of an £80m placing at a 1% premium to the May'19 NAV of 214.8p. But in the light of the incredible chutzpah of that target, they still managed to convince institutions to part with £64m of other people's money at 217.1p.

Excuse my cynicism; but a PE trust like this trading at a 1% premium to NAV and on a yield of just over 2% - I just don't see the value.

[p1nkfish] 20/8/2019 07:28

This could break to the mid-low 190's and touch the lower bound of its up channel & still be in its up channel, depending on how the chart is drawn etc.

[p1nkfish] 26/6/2019 06:13

Releasing more shares?
There is bound to be some price reaction.

[p1nkfish] 14/6/2019 20:49

Patience needed to see what happens as a reaction, I didn't expect a quick sell-off, more a very slow decline through summer boredom to a decent % below the placing price.

Ignoring loyal ordinary shareholders in this placing wasn't too clever imho.

[makinbuks] 14/6/2019 15:33

I agree, it appears a disappointing outcome but no initial price reaction. A PE trust trading at a premium is quite unusual

[p1nkfish] 14/6/2019 06:33

Let's see if share price softens as a consequence.

[p1nkfish] 14/6/2019 06:32

They wanted 80M approx inc 10M internal.
Raised just short of 64M before costs.

They said approx 80M, 64 vs 80 is not approx, it's a fail.

Mishandled imho.