 The Chinese economy expanded by 5.4% yoy in Q4 2024, accelerating from 4.6% in Q3 and surpassing market estimates of 5.0%. It was the strongest annual growth rate in 1-1/2 years, boosted by a series of stimulus measures launched since September to boost recovery and regain confidence. In December, industrial output growth quickened to an 8-month high, while retail sales emerged from a 3-month low. However, the jobless rate hit a 3-month top. On the trade front, exports logged a double-digit rise in December, marking the ninth straight monthly gain and reaching the largest amount in 3 years, as firms rushed to complete shipments ahead of potential tariff hikes under the US Trump administration. Imports saw an unexpected rise to notch their highest value in 27 months. For the full year, the GDP grew by 5.0%, aligning with Beijing's 2024 target of around 5% but falling short of a 5.2% rise in 2023. Last year, fixed investment rose by 3.2% yoy, faster than the 2023 pace of 3.0%. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China |
Miles better. |
Indonesia has had a "surprise" 0.25% base rate cut - it's second since last year's peak. CPI is +1.6%. GDP there has been steady at around +5.0%, give or take, for the last 8 quarters and consumer confidence recently posted a very strong figure of 127.7 (25-year series record 128.9, Covid era low 77.3). Other indicators seem to be moderately good and rising.
This seems to add to the general feel that Asian economic numbers are turning strong. |
The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.27% to close at 3,160, while the Shenzhen Component ended flat at 9,796 on Monday, as mainland stocks struggled to gain traction despite stronger-than-expected trade data. December exports surged 10.7% year-on-year, far surpassing the forecasted 7.3% increase. Imports also rose unexpectedly by 1%, reversing two months of contraction. However, ongoing concerns over slowing economic activity and persistent deflationary pressures, along with the lack of aggressive policy support, kept investors cautious. In an effort to support the yuan, China announced on Monday that it would raise borrowing limits to allow corporations to borrow more from abroad. Notable declines were seen in Cambricon Technologies (-1.5%), Leo Group (-8%), and JCET Group (-2.9%), reflecting broader market uncertainties.
Swings and roundabouts! |
Chinese imports and exports both jump, with exports almost a record for any month (2nd highest): |
I'm guessing coal's latest fall back to 2018 prices will be a relative benefit to China and Asia? |
Thanks for your hugely informative posts, Aleman. Much appreciated! The question you pose in [2078] is indeed an ongoing puzzle. Maybe it's due to global growth, inflation, bond market unease and the (ever-present) Geo-political threats 'right around the globe' - not being in any way helped by the advent of Trump2? |
Strong export growth in December for Taiwan, driven by a 28% rise in ASEAN exports. I keep wondering why strengthening Far East economic figures are not leading to rising share prices. The underlying picture just seems to get stronger and stronger so shares should follow eventually. |
China's freight traffic trend seems to be improving, with October looking like a record?
The recent export trend looks to be improving, too, with ASEAN countries' exports leading last month with +20% in Nov, and 12.9% YTD. (Total China exports Nov 6.8%, and YTD 5.4%.) And this is supposed to be a bad performance? |
The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November 2024 from 50.3 in October, surpassing market estimates of 50.5 and marking the second straight month of increase. It was also the fastest expansion in factory activity since June, driven by the strongest growth in foreign orders since February 2023 and a renewed rise in exports. Moreover, output growth accelerated, hitting its highest level in five months.
Is general strength in GDP in Asia finally starting to lift China, too?
Country Last Previous Reference
Unit
Georgia 9.6 8.4 Jun/24 %
Tajikistan 8.2 8.2 Jun/24 %
Vietnam 7.4 7.09 Sep/24 %
Uzbekistan 6.4 6.2 Jun/24 %
Turkmenistan 6.3 6.2 Dec/23 %
Kyrgyzstan 6.15 3.7 Mar/24 %
Bangladesh 6.03 7.1 Dec/23 %
Brunei 6 6.8 Jun/24 %
Cambodia 5.5 5.3 Dec/23 %
India 5.4 6.7 Sep/24 %
Singapore 5.4 2.9 Sep/24 %
Malaysia 5.3 5.9 Sep/24 %
Armenia 5.2 6.4 Sep/24 %
Philippines 5.2 6.4 Sep/24 %
Mongolia 5 5.6 Sep/24 %
Indonesia 4.95 5.05 Sep/24 %
Bhutan 4.88 4.88 Sep/24 %
Macau 4.7 7.7 Sep/24 %
Sri Lanka 4.7 5.3 Jun/24 %
Azerbaijan 4.6 4 Jun/24 %
China 4.6 4.7 Sep/24 %
Iran 4.6 4 Jun/24 %
Maldives 4.5 7.7 Jun/24 %
Laos 4.2 4.4 Dec/23 %
Taiwan 4.17 4.89 Sep/24 %
Kazakhstan 4.1 3.2 Sep/24 |
Asian predicted growth rates look satisfactory for the next few years, though China revised down to a level some might say was disappointing? Vietnam, India and Philippines look to be the brighter spots. (Though Indian stockmarket ratio P/E s look a bit lofty after a good run, at well over 20. Philippines and Vietnamese shares look very good value at forward P/Es around 11 yet we seem to have no Philippines exposure and have reduced Vietnam around recent lows.) |
NAV performance over one year is behind AAIF but advn has blanked it out for some reason in the previous post... htTPs://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/J408/henderson-far-east-income-ltd-ord NAV is up 18.2% versus AAIF 19.1%. hTTps://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/QR98/abrdn-asian-income-ltd-ord-npv |
...and over the last year its NAV is up 17.4% but AAIF's is up 18.5% [...]
[...] |
Quite, AAIF is miles ahead over 5 and 10 years. |
Lindsell Train used to be on a premium to NAV. Look at it now. |
HFEL have historically "chased" dividends, timing their buys and sells to maximise dividend payments, but simultaneously incurring capital losses. The new fund manager was tasked with changing this approach and has been in control for just over a year iirc. The jury remains out on whether the approach has really changed, especially as the increasing dividend target remains a stated goal.
Two potential watch outs for my perspective - the very high churn of stock and the schizopherenic relationship with Chinese holdings. These were out of favour when the new fund manager took over, but now as Aleman points out make up the majority of the income in the fund. Are HFEL still chasing dividends?
I have a small holding here but it is under review. The results have likely bought it more time. |
Quick take, Before today, I'd modelled the last (3.5 years) out of 4 years of this, and had painted in H2 figures to complete (my view of) the 2024 prelims - which HFEL has out-performed on Revenue and under-performed on Capital. In summary, and ahead of the very deep read now needed, when time permits, these results are both earlier and better than might have been the case. As always, PLEASE DYOR!! |
It's strange how a company that delivers well over the net dividend of the company's inIts portfolio also consistently sees a reducing capital performance. |
17 years and no increase in capital value quite an achievement ... |
fenners
This is off the top of my head but I think that until the other year it was getting close to the dividend not being covered and the share price declined from above 300p. They then restructured the team and the portfolio and it has strengthened despite all the headwinds so there is probably a bit of relief in the chairman's statement |
HFEL is the best sector performer over 1 year, reflecting the change I’d strategy and Management change. See the performance figures in this link:- |
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