 The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November 2024 from 50.3 in October, surpassing market estimates of 50.5 and marking the second straight month of increase. It was also the fastest expansion in factory activity since June, driven by the strongest growth in foreign orders since February 2023 and a renewed rise in exports. Moreover, output growth accelerated, hitting its highest level in five months.
Is general strength in GDP in Asia finally starting to lift China, too?
Country Last Previous Reference
Unit
Georgia 9.6 8.4 Jun/24 %
Tajikistan 8.2 8.2 Jun/24 %
Vietnam 7.4 7.09 Sep/24 %
Uzbekistan 6.4 6.2 Jun/24 %
Turkmenistan 6.3 6.2 Dec/23 %
Kyrgyzstan 6.15 3.7 Mar/24 %
Bangladesh 6.03 7.1 Dec/23 %
Brunei 6 6.8 Jun/24 %
Cambodia 5.5 5.3 Dec/23 %
India 5.4 6.7 Sep/24 %
Singapore 5.4 2.9 Sep/24 %
Malaysia 5.3 5.9 Sep/24 %
Armenia 5.2 6.4 Sep/24 %
Philippines 5.2 6.4 Sep/24 %
Mongolia 5 5.6 Sep/24 %
Indonesia 4.95 5.05 Sep/24 %
Bhutan 4.88 4.88 Sep/24 %
Macau 4.7 7.7 Sep/24 %
Sri Lanka 4.7 5.3 Jun/24 %
Azerbaijan 4.6 4 Jun/24 %
China 4.6 4.7 Sep/24 %
Iran 4.6 4 Jun/24 %
Maldives 4.5 7.7 Jun/24 %
Laos 4.2 4.4 Dec/23 %
Taiwan 4.17 4.89 Sep/24 %
Kazakhstan 4.1 3.2 Sep/24 |
Asian predicted growth rates look satisfactory for the next few years, though China revised down to a level some might say was disappointing? Vietnam, India and Philippines look to be the brighter spots. (Though Indian stockmarket ratio P/E s look a bit lofty after a good run, at well over 20. Philippines and Vietnamese shares look very good value at forward P/Es around 11 yet we seem to have no Philippines exposure and have reduced Vietnam around recent lows.) |
NAV performance over one year is behind AAIF but advn has blanked it out for some reason in the previous post... htTPs://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/J408/henderson-far-east-income-ltd-ord NAV is up 18.2% versus AAIF 19.1%. hTTps://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/QR98/abrdn-asian-income-ltd-ord-npv |
...and over the last year its NAV is up 17.4% but AAIF's is up 18.5% [...]
[...] |
Quite, AAIF is miles ahead over 5 and 10 years. |
Lindsell Train used to be on a premium to NAV. Look at it now. |
HFEL have historically "chased" dividends, timing their buys and sells to maximise dividend payments, but simultaneously incurring capital losses. The new fund manager was tasked with changing this approach and has been in control for just over a year iirc. The jury remains out on whether the approach has really changed, especially as the increasing dividend target remains a stated goal.
Two potential watch outs for my perspective - the very high churn of stock and the schizopherenic relationship with Chinese holdings. These were out of favour when the new fund manager took over, but now as Aleman points out make up the majority of the income in the fund. Are HFEL still chasing dividends?
I have a small holding here but it is under review. The results have likely bought it more time. |
Quick take, Before today, I'd modelled the last (3.5 years) out of 4 years of this, and had painted in H2 figures to complete (my view of) the 2024 prelims - which HFEL has out-performed on Revenue and under-performed on Capital. In summary, and ahead of the very deep read now needed, when time permits, these results are both earlier and better than might have been the case. As always, PLEASE DYOR!! |
It's strange how a company that delivers well over the net dividend of the company's inIts portfolio also consistently sees a reducing capital performance. |
17 years and no increase in capital value quite an achievement ... |
fenners
This is off the top of my head but I think that until the other year it was getting close to the dividend not being covered and the share price declined from above 300p. They then restructured the team and the portfolio and it has strengthened despite all the headwinds so there is probably a bit of relief in the chairman's statement |
HFEL is the best sector performer over 1 year, reflecting the change I’d strategy and Management change. See the performance figures in this link:- |
Tempted to look because of the high yield - so have just read the accounts - well the figures in the accounts have not read all the blurb yet.
One thing struck me though in the Chairman's Statement
"It is also particularly pleasing to confirm that our dividend has been fully covered by portfolio revenues "
Which of course I interpreted on skimming it that divi was covered by EPS.
But its not.
17 years of increasing dividends is a great track record - but are they always liable to such hyperbolic comments ?
If there were no overheads then investment income covering dividends is great - but there are overheads so to me the fully covered is meaningless in that context... |
The better performing AAIF is 12% below NAV where this is above NAV?! Bonkers. |
AAIF is a much better buy in my view with better performance on well below NAV, inexplicably. |
Portfolio turnover very high. Portfolio value £377m. Investment sales £446m, purchases £440m so sales more than total portfolio. I know this has been a year of portfolio reconstruction and that they have traditionally have had high portfolio turnover but this doesn't paint a picture of stability. |
Apparently China has been rushing through exports to beat any possible embargo imposed by Trump so that could be a possible one off and a tad misleading. |
I see China exports hit a 27 month high. |
Only a small holding here for myself. Skimming the results I think they're pretty decent and pretty positive. Anyone see much downside in the midterm? |
Reads well imo :) and agree it's good to see Dividend revenues increase.
Are China announcing more stimulus tomorrow?
Interesting to see how the US v China story unfolds now Trump is back in power Re: Tariffs. |
Well, it's great to see income rise strongly enough to cover the dividend again but over half of it is from China now, after selling down some countries, so its now a China and Far East Income fund. That's increased the political risk. It's strange how share values have not responded much to a healthy rise in dividends. |
Last few months' growth easing trend abated?
The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 52.0 in October 2024, up from September's one-year low of 50.3 and surpassing market forecasts of 50.5, after Beijing launched a series of support measures in late September. This marked the highest reading since July, as new business inflows grew for the first time in four months, with a solid rise in export orders. Meanwhile, employment increased for the second consecutive month, though only marginally, while backlogs of work rose slightly for the third straight month. |
Thoughts on US election having an impact? re: China.
Prefer Harris to Trump personally due to his volatility. |
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