I doubt Xi will invade Taiwan - a very risky military adventure over a 100 mile sea channel and the collateral damage, physically, economically and diplomatically, would not be to their advantage either. They might take the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu, which are not crucial or defensible. If they do take any action against mainland Taiwan it is more likely that they would set up a blocade, which would still cause economic disruption but not on the scale of any military action. |
China won't invade Taiwan it would cause economic suicide for China. Where would China be with sanctions opposed on it. That's not China's way anymore. Just my opinion. |
If Xi invades Taiwan it wont matter where your money is - apart maybe from physical gold |
I bought these months before Russia invaded Ukraine. I will get out soon, but any funds that invest in China, and therefore Taiwan as well is an accident waiting to happen. Any sign of a sniff of something going on over there, and I’m out. |
China seems to have a schizophrenic economy. The high end tech exports are apparently better than for the last two decades whilst the internal economy - housing and such like are in dire straits. I thought HFELs money was in the former |
I recently took a ~15% profit on some of the ones I bought earlier in the year just to rebalance a top heavy position and provide a bit of liquidity to my account.
As for future expectations, I hope/expect the share price will continue tracking NAV (the upper figure which you seem to distrust) within a +/- 5% band, as it has done for many years.
I also hope/expect them to issue new shares at a premium to NAV whenever they have the opportunity.
If the NAV falls to a significant discount, I hope/expect they will repurchase shares to be held in treasury to rinse and repeat. |
no sale from me, and you? |
SSL - what price did you sell at? |
In light of ALL the above positives (thanks Guys!) - I'm actually shocked to see the NAV ps (the lower measure as always adopted by me) is now sitting at 220.8p (12/7/24) - so, marginally down on 221.6p as at 9/2/24. So 5 months of sideways movement, during which the previous (buying opportunity!) discount to SP/MMV has moved up to a significant premium (as graphed above! thanks again! skinny!). Sure the recent dividend announcement IS hugely supportive! and confidence supportive - but what if? there's been over-reach here? HFEL choosing to rinse out its own treasury shares (last week) at 243p and also to issue new shares (at the same price) came over as prime selling signals. So, I looked at today's trades, so far?.......well worth a check! |
The other countries that have bought Chinese goods in much larger amounts hint at a possible significant improvement on the way for some HFEL holdings. I have posted a few times recently that some Asian economies seem to be booming.
Exports to Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kirgizstan rose year-on-year by more than 30%, as China expands rail and other transport facilities across the Eurasian continent. Some of the total may reflect indirect exports to Russia.
But exports were strong across the board, with especially strong performance in Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Exports to Brazil and Mexico, China’s two largest Latin American markets, rose by 17%. |
So, today, HFEL cleared out their remaining treasury shares (at a profit! very good move!) and got some more stock issued - at what they clearly believe! to be a high-ish water mark! Again, good move! - But where does that leave us? Maybe we should expect a period of 'doldrums pricing' with the MMV 243 so far ahead of base NAV 221? That is now my personal expectation, as we run into the Jul24 ex div date. |
Is Chinese property market going from bust to boom? |
From memory last year was 20.9p covered, but option income more than doubled. There might be some bounceback from last year's fall (from just over covered) but options revenue might fall back. Also, they switched some of the portfolio from income bias to growth bias, so underlying cover might well fall even further than last year in the short term. There's a bit going on in the mix there and I would not be surprised if cover fell further under 20.9p but with future prospects talked up. |
Looks like the full year dividend (year ending Aug 2024) will be 24.6p (2 x 6.1p/s + 2 x 6.2 p/s), an increase of 0.4 p/s on last financial year (2 x 6.0 p/s and 2 x 6.1 p/s). Maintains recent year annual increase of 0.4p/s, around 1.6%.
Key for me when the results are published will be dividend cover, is it fully covered and/or trending in the right direction? |
Thanks Rik, that certainly answers all of my questions, and I am very happy with the answer!Best wishes. NSB |
3rd Interim dividend for the year ending 31 August 2024
The directors have declared the third interim dividend of 6.20p per ordinary share in respect of the year ending 31 August 2024. The dividend will be paid on 30 August 2024 ... The shares will be quoted ex-dividend on 25 July 2024. |
Note, there doesn't need to be a dividend raise this quarter to maintain the record of annual dividend rises.
Year 1 Q1:6.0p Q2:6.1p Q3:6.1p Q4:6.1p = Total 24.3p
Year 2 Q1:6.1p Q2:6.1p Q3:6.1p Q4:6.1p = Total 24.4p
Year 3 Q1:6.1p Q2:6.1p Q3:6.1p Q4:6.2p = Total 24.5p
Result: Three years of annual dividend increases
Cheers,
PJ |
zaco4
I forgot that the next dividend should be another increase after the 4 at 6.1p, to keep up their long record of annual increases. There would be no point holding at the current 6.1p quarterly as that would break that long annual increase record. I.e no point just holding, So probably another token increase to be announced this week. Bearing in mind their comments about the dividend in their updates, a cut seems VERY unlikely.
Also until recently the big dividend has been at the expense of capital gains with HFEL by far the worst performer in the sector. BUT new Manager and change of tactics, as they’ve explained in their updates, could mean much better performance ahead and capital gains as well as huge dividend. Already the share is well off the bottom at 242p compared with 198p low last October. Pleased I topped up then to average down and maximise dividend yield too. |
It certainly has - I bought @318 in 2014 and sold @323 in 2019 - so 5p in 5years. |
16 years of dividend increase here and next generation dividend hero status with AICDoubt they would want to lose that but you never know !The size of the dividend clearly underlines it has been at the expense of capital over the years imho I speak as a long term holder here and at AAI |
" . . . so hopefully no change in the 6.1p quarterly and 10% annual yield . . ."
I'm expecting a slight increase in the dividend. 6.10p has been paid for the last 4 quarters. |
Thanks kenmitch, that's really helpful; I didn't actually think that I could ask them direct. Handy to know for future occasions. Best wishes. NSB |
I agree, and the changes made so far do look positive. I therefore hope I am just being overly nervous on the dividend outlook; I remain a holder here, and intend to add a further 50% over the course of this tax year, as dividend income arrives in my ISA to fund the purchase. Not even looking for an increase in dividend this year, in fact I would be very happy if they are maintained on or even just below current levels for a year or two to ensure the ship is properly steadied. 5.5p per quarter would be very satisfactory. Best wishes. NSB |
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
Hot Features
Premium
