no sale from me, and you? |
SSL - what price did you sell at? |
In light of ALL the above positives (thanks Guys!) - I'm actually shocked to see the NAV ps (the lower measure as always adopted by me) is now sitting at 220.8p (12/7/24) - so, marginally down on 221.6p as at 9/2/24. So 5 months of sideways movement, during which the previous (buying opportunity!) discount to SP/MMV has moved up to a significant premium (as graphed above! thanks again! skinny!). Sure the recent dividend announcement IS hugely supportive! and confidence supportive - but what if? there's been over-reach here? HFEL choosing to rinse out its own treasury shares (last week) at 243p and also to issue new shares (at the same price) came over as prime selling signals. So, I looked at today's trades, so far?.......well worth a check! |
The other countries that have bought Chinese goods in much larger amounts hint at a possible significant improvement on the way for some HFEL holdings. I have posted a few times recently that some Asian economies seem to be booming.
Exports to Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kirgizstan rose year-on-year by more than 30%, as China expands rail and other transport facilities across the Eurasian continent. Some of the total may reflect indirect exports to Russia.
But exports were strong across the board, with especially strong performance in Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Exports to Brazil and Mexico, China’s two largest Latin American markets, rose by 17%. |
So, today, HFEL cleared out their remaining treasury shares (at a profit! very good move!) and got some more stock issued - at what they clearly believe! to be a high-ish water mark! Again, good move! - But where does that leave us? Maybe we should expect a period of 'doldrums pricing' with the MMV 243 so far ahead of base NAV 221? That is now my personal expectation, as we run into the Jul24 ex div date. |
Is Chinese property market going from bust to boom? |
From memory last year was 20.9p covered, but option income more than doubled. There might be some bounceback from last year's fall (from just over covered) but options revenue might fall back. Also, they switched some of the portfolio from income bias to growth bias, so underlying cover might well fall even further than last year in the short term. There's a bit going on in the mix there and I would not be surprised if cover fell further under 20.9p but with future prospects talked up. |
Looks like the full year dividend (year ending Aug 2024) will be 24.6p (2 x 6.1p/s + 2 x 6.2 p/s), an increase of 0.4 p/s on last financial year (2 x 6.0 p/s and 2 x 6.1 p/s). Maintains recent year annual increase of 0.4p/s, around 1.6%.
Key for me when the results are published will be dividend cover, is it fully covered and/or trending in the right direction? |
Thanks Rik, that certainly answers all of my questions, and I am very happy with the answer!Best wishes. NSB |
3rd Interim dividend for the year ending 31 August 2024
The directors have declared the third interim dividend of 6.20p per ordinary share in respect of the year ending 31 August 2024. The dividend will be paid on 30 August 2024 ... The shares will be quoted ex-dividend on 25 July 2024. |
Note, there doesn't need to be a dividend raise this quarter to maintain the record of annual dividend rises.
Year 1 Q1:6.0p Q2:6.1p Q3:6.1p Q4:6.1p = Total 24.3p
Year 2 Q1:6.1p Q2:6.1p Q3:6.1p Q4:6.1p = Total 24.4p
Year 3 Q1:6.1p Q2:6.1p Q3:6.1p Q4:6.2p = Total 24.5p
Result: Three years of annual dividend increases
Cheers,
PJ |
zaco4
I forgot that the next dividend should be another increase after the 4 at 6.1p, to keep up their long record of annual increases. There would be no point holding at the current 6.1p quarterly as that would break that long annual increase record. I.e no point just holding, So probably another token increase to be announced this week. Bearing in mind their comments about the dividend in their updates, a cut seems VERY unlikely.
Also until recently the big dividend has been at the expense of capital gains with HFEL by far the worst performer in the sector. BUT new Manager and change of tactics, as they’ve explained in their updates, could mean much better performance ahead and capital gains as well as huge dividend. Already the share is well off the bottom at 242p compared with 198p low last October. Pleased I topped up then to average down and maximise dividend yield too. |
It certainly has - I bought @318 in 2014 and sold @323 in 2019 - so 5p in 5years. |
16 years of dividend increase here and next generation dividend hero status with AICDoubt they would want to lose that but you never know !The size of the dividend clearly underlines it has been at the expense of capital over the years imho I speak as a long term holder here and at AAI |
" . . . so hopefully no change in the 6.1p quarterly and 10% annual yield . . ."
I'm expecting a slight increase in the dividend. 6.10p has been paid for the last 4 quarters. |
Thanks kenmitch, that's really helpful; I didn't actually think that I could ask them direct. Handy to know for future occasions. Best wishes. NSB |
I agree, and the changes made so far do look positive. I therefore hope I am just being overly nervous on the dividend outlook; I remain a holder here, and intend to add a further 50% over the course of this tax year, as dividend income arrives in my ISA to fund the purchase. Not even looking for an increase in dividend this year, in fact I would be very happy if they are maintained on or even just below current levels for a year or two to ensure the ship is properly steadied. 5.5p per quarter would be very satisfactory. Best wishes. NSB |
I’ve just done the obvious and asked them.
The dividend announcement will be sometime this week and reason for delay is Board Meeting later than usual. Obviously I wasn’t given info on the dividend level but got the impression there’s nothing untoward, so hopefully no change in the 6.1p quarterly and 10% annual yield. |
Havent there been changes in management this year though? |
Wow! NSB, that input has certainly restrained my latest buy order! Now on even closer watch! |
My concern was that they are more than 2 weeks late with the announcement of the August dividend; this has been announced on 21st June for at least the past 2 years. I wonder why they are announcing late this year; are we likely to see a cut in dividend now?Best wishes. NSB |
Has one of the companies just gone ex a big special div ? That might explain it. |
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