Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[scruff1] 10/12/2023 21:37

adejuk
Not sure which thread it was on (PHNX I think) but someone posted an apparently famous quote by a Buffet type which went something like ' the only people that catch the bottom and the top are the liars'. I must be as honest as the day is long (though I did buy into PHNX at 470 last Monday so at least I have had a week at making a good shot of being a liar - they closed around 498 Fri)

[adejuk] 10/12/2023 14:15

scruff
in recent times - the last 2 years - it was 'quite well' to not be falling !
my holdings in all my accounts are down by ave 25%.
the consensus seems to be that the markets have bottomed out. hfe fund bod seems to think so but they do add caveats.
i have never been able to call a bottom in my life. it's all bloody luck :-)

[tim 3] 10/12/2023 12:52

Good luck to you ade and all the others long.

I could be totally wrong certainly wouldn't be the first time ;)

[scruff1] 10/12/2023 12:15

Quite well
The absolute bottom was only weeks ago - not much below where we are now - just before the last divi call.
It would be harder to be more pessimistic than it has been over the last few years. Lets hope some good cheer arrives in the New Year. Like stopping all these bloody wars for a start

[adejuk] 10/12/2023 11:59

tim
given the emphasis placed on the discounted values of companies in the new investement strategy i am more optimistic than you. however, i should disclose that i got in at v close to the bottom and so far am doing quite well here. after reading the results i plan to continue adding slowly
this fund meets all the requirments for a hfe investment :-)

[superiorshares] 09/12/2023 10:18

Yes but they use their own money to buy them .
I get that it's less dividend to pay out
But if the share price goes lower than their purchase price then the loss is a double whammy ..

[makinbuks] 08/12/2023 11:43

They don't pay a dividend on them

[superiorshares] 07/12/2023 20:46

This purchase of shares to be held in treasury.
I don't understand what benefit they get from it ? I have obviously seen others do it .
What does it actually achieve?

[tim 3] 04/12/2023 20:09

Makinbuks.

That's exactly my point.

Corporate gibberish.

A classic case of many words but saying very little.

[makinbuks] 04/12/2023 17:16

Tim 3, I completely agree with you. What precisely do they mean. We know they sell options which limit capital growth but generate additional income. Are they going to do less of that? Or are they admitting that they have been churning for the sake of dividend entitlement and intend to stop? Or are they saying they have been invested in too many income traps and are now concentrating on businesses that pay a sustainable and growing dividend? Those are the three strategic policies I can think of that they could refer to. Possibly a combination of all. However, the point is that any such action will reduce income at the expense of capital gain (you hope). Given that, how can the dividend be sustainable?

I actually think running a "Income Maximiser Plus" strategy in the Far East is a good idea. But I don't think I'd market it with a sustainable 11% dividend. 6 - 8% would make a lot more sense

[kiwi2007] 03/12/2023 18:26

China has bankruptcy problem

Overall, China's economic performance remains problematic, and along with the implied criticism he received from Party elders during their summer retreat, it now looks like President Xi is delaying a major set-piece economic conference (the "third plenum"), one where Xi's new team (the one appointed at the "second plenum") releases its longer-term economic plans.

Meanwhile, Chinese borrowers are defaulting in record numbers as their economic troubles extend. More than 8.5 mln people are sharply downgraded in their 'social credit' which essentially means they are blacklisted, after missed payments on mortgages and business loans. That is about 1% of working-age Chinese adults, and is up from 5.7 mln defaulters in early 2020.

And another Chinese property developer is scrambling to save itself - Gemdale.

[...]

[superiorshares] 02/12/2023 21:22

Investment.
It's all about timing .

[aleman] 01/12/2023 09:23

Looks like the push into China was aggravated by a (badly timed?) £12m increase in debt as interest rates rose that nearly quarupled finance costs. There's also a modest increase in tax. Comments on these would have helped rather than double-speak on the dividend. Why not just say it might have to be trimmed if markets remain difficult and we don't pick stocks better? I also note Net Assets says £632m instead of £362m so they might have to reissue the results with a correction.

[tim 3] 01/12/2023 00:00

"Our analysis has now led us to revise the way in which we capture dividends, an approach that has too often led to diminished capital growth. We have now largely restructured the portfolio to allow the renewed growth in portfolio company dividends to come through along with better capital growth returns"Would anyone care to explain what this actually means in terms of what they have actually done?

[gateside] 30/11/2023 17:47

I think you mean 11.6% yield

[skinny] 30/11/2023 17:40

Wrong thread .

[makinbuks] 30/11/2023 17:37

But surely the yield on NAV (forget premiums or discounts) is absurd for an equity income fund. Shouldn't a sensible re-basing be part of their more balanced recovery strategy?

[scruff1] 30/11/2023 17:25

kenmitch
Yep lot of agreement with that post but one things for sure if that divi cant be maintained theres gonna be a lot of heart tremors

[makinbuks] 30/11/2023 16:37

But they haven't said HOW they are going to achieve that. Nor have they adequately explained the NAV fall. Sound a bit like a magic wand to me

[kenmitch] 30/11/2023 16:05

I agree with all the criticism as performance has been terrible and it’s inexcusable that it’s been allowed to be the case for so long. Obvious thing to is to replace obviously incompetent Manager or even the whole team and it should have happened ages ago.

Where I disagree is on selling now just when AT LAST there’s acceptance that it’s gone so wrong along with first steps to rectify it. I should have sold ages ago but didn’t only because the dividend was the one saving grace.

Now could well be a very good buy opportunity for NAV and share price recovery. They clearly want to maintain the long record of annual dividend increases.IF they achieve that AIM then anyone buying or averaging down now will be locking in a double digit dividend yield paid quarterly, along with possibly decent capital gains too.

[tim 3] 30/11/2023 12:51

Yep more or less halved in the last few years and trading near all time lows.Well done old chap!