Helphire Grp. Share Discussion Threads

[simon templar qc] 14/5/2014 06:17

ant15,

I agree its a completely different company now and the fundamentals much stronger now its got cash and strongly cash generative. Its ludicrous the share price being so low on forecast yield. You would normally see a high yield stock at risk as a dividend may be cut but here we have the company about to generate good cash they want to pay some of it back in dividends. After consolidation I would hope to see a stronger share price.

[ant15] 14/5/2014 06:00

BOD have demonstrated their ability to turn this around already. I have no doubt that it will further distance the company that was from the company that is now. One of the best recovery stocks at this price on the market.

[xpan] 14/5/2014 04:43

Circular said new short code will be REDD

[lauders] 14/5/2014 00:41

capricious71 - I hope you are correct. Don't consolidation and name changes, especially during a weak/nervous market, create downward movements? Hope I am way of the mark on that one!

[capricious71] 13/5/2014 22:20

It's all good news, even if the market seems mostly uninterested.
The change of name (and website, which is really needed. It's really drab) and consolidation should really help.

[simon templar qc] 13/5/2014 18:17

bc4

Prospective dividend yield over 10% on current share price, that implies there is ample upside on yield alone. If the share price doubled the prospectus yield would still be 5%.

With strong cash generation I see no problem on forecast yield.

[bc4] 13/5/2014 13:40

At current levels the forecast final divi is 5% alone, so certainly not to be sniffed at.

[andyview] 13/5/2014 13:33

No, it will probably change.

I've added more, great recovery play going on here...gla

[fizzypop] 13/5/2014 13:22

Presumably with the name change to Redde the epic code HHR stays the same?

[interceptor2] 13/5/2014 12:25

Thanks for sharing Simon, very informative :o)

[simon templar qc] 13/5/2014 12:20

buywell2

These are brokers views not mine buywell. I do however go along with their views and cannot see how this is a ramp.

[buywell2] 13/5/2014 12:09

RAMP ALERT

[simon templar qc] 13/5/2014 12:06

Singer:

Strong Q3 Trading – The update issued this morning indicates that trading performance
has continued strongly, following initial optimism at the Interims in February. This has
manifested itself in a more profitable mix of case types. The trading results for the
newly acquired New Law exceeded budgeted performance in the first month as a
consolidated subsidiary of Helphire.
Name Change, Share Consolidation – The company name will become Redde plc
(associated in latin to "restoration") on 23rd May, to reflect a broader range of services
to "restore the customer to their position prior to the accident". Also, pending
shareholder approval, the shares will be consolidated 1 for 10, to allow reporting of EPS
and a share price in a conventional range more suited to Helphire's corporate profile.
Cash Generation Continues – Net cash stood at £33m at the end of March – excluding
the residual proceeds of the December equity raise, net cash was £8.7m (H1'14 £4.4m).
An interim dividend of £4.2m has been paid in the period. Taking these factors into
account the group has generated £8.5m underlying cash flow for shareholders in Q3. A
creditable performance reflecting both underlying profitability and improved working
capital management, where debtor days fell again to 128 days (vs H1'14 135, Q3'13 140)
with further reductions expected.
Upgrading Forecasts – We upgrade PBT forecasts by 7-12% FY14-16. Specifically, FY14
PBT to £10.9m (+12%, prev £9.8m) and FY14 EPS to 0.50p (+24%, 0.41p). We make a
corresponding upgrade to our final dividend to 0.29p, bringing FY14 DPS to 0.5p (+19%).
In light of strong cash generation we increase our FY14 net cash to £33.7m (£26.4m).
Valuation – We recognise that there has been some de-rating in the comparables we
use to value Helphire. Using our blended average, 70% EV/EBITA (using The Innovation
Group's multiple, now 9.4x cal'15) and 30% DCF (increased from 11.1p to 11.8p) gives
an unchanged 8.7p 12m Target Price. We retain our BUY recommendation.

[simon templar qc] 13/5/2014 11:42

Singer:

"Helphire has reported strong Q3 trading driven by more profitable mix of cases than
expected. This is complemented by performance ahead of budget in the recently acquired
New Law legal services business. The company name will change to Redde plc and,
pending shareholder approval, shares consolidated 1 for 10. Strong trading results
continue to drive underlying cash generation complemented by further improvements in
working capital management. We upgrade our FY14 PBT forecast by 12% and by 7% in
both FY15 and FY16. We retain our previous target price, 8.7p – a blended multiple/DCF
approach, and retain our BUY recommendation with a projected 50% 12m TSR.
Price. We retain our BUY recommendation."

[simon templar qc] 13/5/2014 11:28

Singer came out with an 8 page report. Company is to pay as much in dividends as eps which is due to forecast strong cash generation. Current share price at silly levels on forecast yield.

So sit tight the penny will drop soon.


edit:

Forecast net cash:

2014 £33.7 million
2015 £35.4 million
2016 £39.2 million

[bc4] 13/5/2014 11:09

Cheers for that SIMON sounds very good to me could be a decent rise when the penny drops

[interceptor2] 13/5/2014 07:42

Thank you Simon

At least Singer have more realistic estimate now, after the very positive trading update this month. Still room for an ahead of expectations trading update before the full year results in September imo.

I did buy back in here after the trading update, looks a good place with the chart consolidating at this level.

[simon templar qc] 13/5/2014 07:21

Have read Singer brokers forecasts and here are the highlights:

N+1 Singer

41.7% upside and estimate dividend yield of 8.2% FY14

Generated underlying cash of £8.5 million in Q3

PBT upgraded forecasts

2014 + 12% to £10.9m eps 0.50 up 24%!

Upgrade final dividend to 0.29p bringing FY 14 dps to 0.5p 19%

FY 14 net cash to £33,7 million (£26.4 million)

Brokers looking for DPS of 0.7P in 2016

Overall view with 40% upside on share price this is a good yielding stock. I expect the share price to motor forward soon.

[nicky name] 11/5/2014 21:20

1sfox I suspect that what you have just said is very wrong about QPP taking on dud cases at £700 per case. When will people on these boards stop making vague accusations about QPP without giving specific details? There seems to be a smear campaign of innuendo going on against QPP. I wonder why that is.

[1sfox] 11/5/2014 20:06

Its abt accountability hhr hav good ppl,qpp on the other hand hav been buying cases inthere claims area,off small companies by the bucketload paying and avg £700 per case,cases that have no chance they are dud cases,its about having the right people at the helm,hhr brought in new managenent who hav transformed the outlook which was heading 1 way

[lauders] 11/5/2014 05:30

Well bought my top-up at the end of the day Friday. Wait for it to crash now ;-( Hopefully I will have got my timing right ;-)

[oldtown] 08/5/2014 08:53

Still the headwind of that stock overhang, however totally unimportant to long term holders.

[sefton1] 07/5/2014 14:39

Bit off the boil here but I'm still up almost 100% and plenty of future growth to come.