Heiq Share Discussion Threads

[catabrit] 24/5/2023 16:16

I asked IR that recently as a follow-up and never got a response. I’ll ask again.

[unluckyluke] 24/5/2023 07:37

Thanks for that.

Hi all,
any news on HeiQ?
Has anybody heard of a specific date, when the results will be published?

[catabrit] 16/5/2023 09:51

FWIW - Polygiene AB (ticker: POLYG.ST) is not a bad comp for HEIQ. If you apply the same market cap to sales (a metric that’s now redundant, admittedly) you get a share price that’s 30-40% higher. And obviously that excludes AeoniQ and the claim against ICP.

HEIQ’s IR function is pretty poor but they have claimed they will reduce headcount / costs before they consider doing an equity raise. Now take that with a pinch of salt as I’m sure many companies say the same thing but let’s not forget that management and prior longstanding shareholders still own ~25% of the stock.

I think it’s hard to attribute a probability to what the upside might be here but the more I dig into this, the safer I feel with my basis at 18p odd.

For those with a higher in-price, it might take a while to recover your losses but there’s definitely a lot of potential here and I feel this is more of a fallen angel than a dud but I could be wrong.

I’ll continue to share what I find. I plan to do more detailed scuttlebutt with industry insiders over the coming weeks.

[dr biotech] 12/5/2023 21:37

Someone seems to down tick every post. I wouldn’t lose sleep over it.

[catabrit] 12/5/2023 19:30

Whoever downvoted what I thought would be useful information, care to explain?

[catabrit] 12/5/2023 14:02

Anyone that is long HEIQ should check out the Renewcell Capital Markets Day which was held this week. They have a monopoly in cellulose it seems and the filament yarn that AeoniQ makes uses their feed. They have a market cap of 3.5bn SEK or circa £280m. I can see why Carlo and the team are bullish on AeoniQ’s prospects. Whether it’s regulatory, customer (brands) or consumer they’re skating to where the puck is going.

[hedgehog 100] 30/4/2023 10:49

Dr Biotech,

My understanding of the 'one year guideline' is that you 'restart the clock' with each subsequent profit warning.

Profit warnings sometimes come in sequences, so an advantage of waiting a year is that it gives more time to see whether that's likely to happen or not.

You also of course have to apply your own judgement, considering all relevant factors.

HEIQ has never been prompt in its warnings, so that's a relevant factor to allow for.

It's wise to thoroughly examine RNSes for indications of potential profit warnings to come.

For example, this snippet about 'energy prices challenges' etc. is the sort of thing that can be a 'veiled warning':-

02/12/2022 07:00 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) HeiQ PLC Acquisition of Chem-Tex Laboratories, Inc LSE:HEIQ Heiq Plc
" ... This Acquisition is expected to improve HeiQ's operating margin in 2023 and beyond and will also enable HeiQ to focus its future manufacturing investments in the USA, which have proven to be less exposed to energy price increases and critical base chemical raw materials availability challenges experienced in Europe in the recent years. ..."

[dr biotech] 29/4/2023 18:49

Heiq also warned at a similar time at 140p…

[hedgehog 100] 29/4/2023 13:30

This has certainly been one to forget about for holders so far!

But of course if the company's results recover, then the share price should do likewise.


Anyone considering a HEIQ buy after the return from suspension may be interested in this research:-

"What to do when one of your stocks warns on profit

We discuss how share prices react in the aftermath of a profit alert

06 June 2019|Feature

... RECOVERY FROM A WARNING DEPENDS ON CIRCUMSTANCES

A study by UK finance professors George Bulkley, Richard Harris and Renata Herrerias looked at 455 profit warnings issued between 1997 and 1999 and tracked the stocks until 2001. Unlike some of the other studies that we discussed, this study looked further ahead. It tracked future earnings announcements that were released to the market.

It found that between 12 and 24 months after a profit warning, the average cumulated excess daily returns of these stocks was a positive 23% relative to the market.

In other words, the stocks showed strong signs of recovery between one and two years after the warning. This can be explained by analysts being slow to change their opinions, even in the face of new information. ..."




The period of a year gives sufficient time for the share price to deflate, and for business recovery to take place and be sufficiently reported.

And it's also partly psychological: the one year period gives sufficient time for 'emotional healing'; and there's an element of 'self-fulfilling prophecy' re standard expectations of the common time period before recovery.


A good recent example of this 'one year rule' working well is NWT (Newmark Security).

After its 15th. October 2021 trading update the company's share price nearly halved over the following twelve months.

But since its 27th. October 2022 trading update, its share price has more than doubled (from 25.5p to 56.5p), on improved trading.

"Newmark Security in 2023: A Transformed Tech & USA Success Story"


Newmark Security (NWT):-

[value hound] 28/4/2023 18:54

Yes - quite possibly a several-bagger from here. One to buy and forget about; anything is possible from this point.

[catabrit] 28/4/2023 15:11

Lots of risk here but we're at a big discount to the implied $200m valuation of AEONI. You also have a $100m claim against ICP. So we're paying 15c in the $ for both and get the rest of the business lines for free.

If they get anywhere close to their medium term revenue target (300m GBP I think) we're looking at amazing upside considering that their gross margins are circa 50%.

[boystown] 28/4/2023 11:27

I also bought some today. Seems a ridiculous price

[farrugia] 28/4/2023 09:05

i bought a few but its just as a punt - you know how these companies can bounce strongly after announcing a suspension. The initial shock is taken in stride as participants then digest the suspension... I've seen impressive bounces in the past. Particularly in the last day before suspension!!

remember HEIQ attracted a US$5 million Hugo Boss investment just in 14 February 2022

there were also buys by the CEO just in January
Chief Executive Officer of the Company, purchased 261,171 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 28 pence per share.




3,810,276 volume already

[farrugia] 28/4/2023 08:38

3,810,276 volume already

[farrugia] 28/4/2023 07:19

i bought a few but its just as a punt - you know how these companies can bounce strongly after announcing a suspension. The initial shock is taken in stride as participants then digest the suspension... I've seen impressive bounces in the past. Particularly in the last day before suspension!!

remember HEIQ attracted a US$5 million Hugo Boss investment just in 14 February 2022

there were also buys by the CEO just in January
Chief Executive Officer of the Company, purchased 261,171 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 28 pence per share.

[bad gateway] 27/4/2023 18:29

and we were taught Swiss timing was so great. Reads to me as if they don't see it as an issue just don't know if I'm confident enough for gains to jump in for some before the weekend.

[jammytass] 27/4/2023 16:16

ask and you will be in the know [phone]

[pugugly] 27/4/2023 16:05

Dr B. That theoretical portfolio is not doing too badly against the small cap and AIM indexes

[pugugly] 27/4/2023 16:03

So who picked up the 1.3M shares at 16p - Unlikely to be MM's - might be shorters closing or possibly management snapping up to try and protect themselves from vultures.

[pugugly] 27/4/2023 16:02

So who picked up the 1.3M shares at 16p - Unlikely to be MM's - might be shorters closing or possibly management snapping up to try and protect themselves from vultures or a believer who feels real value here at 16p - If so best of luck.

[jammytass] 27/4/2023 16:00

[e-mail]> thats the email to find out whats going on use it!!!

[dr biotech] 27/4/2023 15:59

I did cancel it for quite a lot of last year - for various reasons I restarted it. I have an theoretical portfolio where I buy £1000 of each of the main tips each month (and if its tipped again I buy another £1000) - its down about 2%. This lot aren't included I started it after it was tipped.