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[simon gordon] 08/3/2013 20:28

Tiger,

I've got an eye on LPA, thought the update the other day was constructive, it's a tiny market cap, so liquidity is an issue.

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eeyrcr,

Volume is generally not that great for HSP, spread can go from 1p to 30p.

[castleford tiger] 08/3/2013 18:22

Guys take a look at LPA group.

I am a holder but a view would be good.

Tiger

down/bad day HSP today

[eeyrcr] 08/3/2013 08:18

Morning all.

Volume seems to be incredibly light over the last few days - is this normal for HSP? Any idea why?

Thanks,
- Chris

[simon gordon] 07/3/2013 19:38

Checkers,

I find I get more emotional the bigger the bet I have on (10% to 25% of capital), before the GFC if I felt nervous I would hunt down data to see if my unconscious fears were reasonable or unsound. That way I could try to be in harmony and dissonance was manageable. If I have a smaller bet on (1% to 5% of capital) I don't dig much, just watch the chart and read the RNS when released.

I think the best traders have innate skill, much like a Ronaldo or Messi, they still work their socks off but they've got the spark of genius. For the regular guys, like myself, you just have to grunt, read copiously, learn TA and don't be afraid to get on the trumpet, plus lashings of psychotherapy is a good way to get in touch with your emotions so that you can see and work with them.

To be a good trader you need to be a skilled business analyst and self aware psychotherapist. But ultimately it's about buying low (fear) and selling high (greed). Oh, so simple :-)

[checkers2] 07/3/2013 18:57

Yes, interesting thought Simon.

Sheds light also on the question of free will which has baffled scientists and philosophers for centuries.

My view is that one can be self-determined, ie have free will, but one has to work on it, as it doesn't come naturally.

Often we are determined by habits, bodily needs, cultural conditioning and gender. I think the best business people I have met have appreciated this, and have the ability to be reflective/objective. I haven't the same experience with traders, but I imagine the good ones are also very good at keeping an open mind and changing their minds also when new facts arise.

[simon gordon] 06/3/2013 18:56

I was in the Yorkshire Wolds again today thinking about my HSP trade and I remembered a book I read years ago called The Two of Me: The Rational Outer Me and The Emotional Inner Me by John Birtchnell.

I once did some group Art Therapy with John, that's how I found his books, they're all a good read and offer good angles on Trading Psychology.

The Two of Me:

"How much of what we do is directed by conscious, deliberate decisions and how much originates in unconscious, automatic directives? This is the question explored in The Two of Me via an engaging combination of phenomenological subjective investigation and objective considerations of mental processes and specific structures. John Birtchnell puts forward the thesis that many more of our actions than we might imagine are determined unconsciously. Not only are unnoticed automatic actions motivated unconsciously, but also seemingly conscious or 'thought out' behaviours are actually determined and reinforced by unconscious exigencies. Even where we produce a reasoned discourse taking responsibility for why we hold certain thoughts, there is always the possibility that these explanations serve and follow from an unconscious driving force. The conscious mind seems to act as spokesperson for both itself and the unconscious mind. Investigating this dual aspect of the person, the book addresses the issue across a range of mental processes including memory, language, problem-solving, dreams, delusions, hallucinations and more complex constructs such as the arts, humour and religion."

[castleford tiger] 06/3/2013 18:22

10.00 next stop

[jamielein] 06/3/2013 16:28

I'm not a big fan of the theory of gaps, but I do like the fundamentals here so do think it'll get filled eventually.

[gargoyle2] 06/3/2013 15:51

BTW, that gap down in May doesn't get filled for another 150 points. A way to go yet imo.

[gargoyle2] 06/3/2013 15:44

Better to get a wake up call from not profiting as much as you could have than from losing your shirt!

[simon gordon] 06/3/2013 12:23

Gargoyle,

Yes, saw that. All in all, lost 70p for not making a two minute phone call, need to get my brain in gear!! :-)

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Jamie,

Took four electronic trades to get half my position back.

I don't know why I didn't call the CFO again, I was in the Yorkshire Wolds and suddenly had the jitters, got on the mobile and sold, it was not very rational. It was like my ape brain took over, my nervous system couldn't handle the uncertainty and I needed stress relief, when only a phone call to HSP would have done it. I used to dig like a crazed maniac before the GFC, I need to get some of my digging mojo back. I think HSP was a wake up call for me.

[gargoyle2] 06/3/2013 11:48

FYI Simon, I think some of that pullback is because it's gone ex-divi today. I'm still holding here.

[jamielein] 06/3/2013 11:34

Simon, I had the exact same reaction so it's understandable. I've already bought back. It's quite annoying when it happens, and it's difficult to buy back higher (psychologically!).

Will it be easy enough for you to buy back? Did you have a very large position (if you don't mind me asking)?

Regards,
Jamie

[simon gordon] 06/3/2013 09:57

I've started buying back my position on this pullback, in hindsight I should have just called the CFO and asked if they'd had a legal opinion on any potential liability. My nerves got the better of me. Lesson learnt: get on the trumpet!!! I continue think this will eventually get past a tenner and attack the old highs, the AHT deal looks like another shrewd move.

[jamielein] 04/3/2013 17:48

Thanks simon, good to know.

[simon gordon] 04/3/2013 17:16

Just one final note. From my scuttlebutting last week I have learnt today that HSP are adamant there'll be no blowback from Hatfield, they've taken legal advice on this.

[jamielein] 02/3/2013 10:46

I had the same reaction to the Hatfield news, and only decided to buy back because of a gut feeling.

KBC does look interesting, but their share price hasn't shown too much strength recently so I'm waiting for some news.

[simon gordon] 02/3/2013 07:59

Gargoyle,

Going by past experience I should be through the worst of the grieving cycle by the end of next week.

KBC - hope so, my main concern is whether they can escape the lumpy nature of the refinery business. Infochem and Production are that opportunity, I hope the products are as good as their propaganda states.

[gargoyle2] 02/3/2013 05:16

Don't beat yourself up about selling too soon, simon. It was not an unreasonable response to the Hatfield news. (And you'll make it up in KBC anyway.)

[simon gordon] 01/3/2013 21:51

Hatfield landslip was on the telly, saying cost of repairs could run to tens of millions, plus you've got 500K a week in Network Rail costs, looks like the final bill could be between £10m and £40m.

ITV News video:



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For now, that's my final post on HSP, I duffed up by selling last week, probably because of my position size, I didn't fancy trying to unload it if bad news broke re: Hatfield. I was too cautious, the share looked excellent after breaking 800p, such is life; you live, learn and move on.

Good fortune.

[sharetips] 01/3/2013 15:55

and could have further to go - over £11 if you believe cityconfidential - see www.cityconfidential.co.uk for comment on results

[meijiman] 01/3/2013 14:58

More corporate activity. Appears they are buying the ATH business which went into administration. Anyway seems to have gone down well with the market as shares now heading to 900p.

[castleford tiger] 28/2/2013 18:00

Strong DAY.

I will wait for a bad day

tiger

[limit up] 28/2/2013 16:31

good figures as well as the increase dividend,outlook looks okay as well..have been in the stock since 440p ,it is still cheap on a valution..
regds