Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[adg] 20/11/2018 08:47

fwiw - I wouldn't be surprised that WHEN SL FID is announced PMO may drop and RKH will rise substantially

[deanroberthunt] 20/11/2018 08:16

the volatility also puts off M&A...

[jelenko] 20/11/2018 07:45

I think what would suit most people is a relatively "stable" oil price. $20 spikes and falls are not ideal. The oil traders are to blame for this, not producers or consumers, Just the oil traders buying, selling, shorting, covering. Their actions totally mask the real supply/demand situation.

[deanroberthunt] 20/11/2018 07:28

also, most seem happy with $65-70 Oil, including Russia....plus no one really wants $100+ Oil, except Oil stock shareholders...

so can't we just have a Status Quo at this level?...

[deanroberthunt] 20/11/2018 07:22

I currently have PMO sitting on an EV/EBITDA ratio of 4.6, assuming a year end debt of $2.4bn...and that is obviously improving as the debt reduces....anything under 10 is deemed cheap....so even at 160p/share, she's still under 10!!!

Even at $65 Oil, PMO have inked $300m fcf per annum, meaning that even if that's the average for the next 3 years, they'll reach their debt target of $1.5bn in that time....moreover, she's also working off 2 x fcf....the numbers are beyond irrational....

my numbers don't even take into account that 30% of production is hedged at $66 and $72, H1/H2 2019 resp.

I suppose, one day Rodders, is the only suggestion at the moment

[duckdown] 19/11/2018 19:19

That's the big question.

The G20 meeting and OPEC meeting at the beginning of December will set the tone for the months to come.

[leoneobull] 19/11/2018 19:15

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/19/why-the-cia-report-on-khashoggi-killing-complicates-saudis-oil-plans.htmlWill Saudis cut given US opposition? That is today's 1 million dollar question

[montevid] 19/11/2018 19:02

PMO is a SETmm stock, which put simply means the market makers are making sure their shorter friends are being looked after. The command probably comes directly from the top of the organisations of the market maker!!

In fact they probably all play golf together.

[onedb1] 19/11/2018 17:49

Hi Nav-MikeJust a FYI as I used to trade interest rate swaps on options on a proper desk : it's not "hitting the offer" etc it's "lifting the offer and hitting the bid "Just thought you may have wanted to write that instead . All the best

[kaisharp] 19/11/2018 16:23

Is it just me or is this board becoming as bad as the graveyard that was once the iii boards?

[nav_mike] 19/11/2018 16:21

Blimey just noticed the off book trade at 15:08 for 5.35m shares at 82.05p

A short closing or new buyer entering the fray?

I guess it could be a sell, but only if it was a delayed reported trade from Friday?

[dealer1972] 19/11/2018 16:13

PMO seems to be going against the grain today for a change. Saw some of the other oilers and thought PMO must be getting pummelled! But er nope, hmmmm!

[duckdown] 19/11/2018 14:40

Oil down again on Russian comments

[hoper2] 19/11/2018 14:39

Not if the POO keeps falling, then the future EBITDA will fall. It's all about the POO - I think we all know that.

[southseasbubble] 19/11/2018 14:13

Who mentioned feeling good?

It is pointing out that PMO has recovered 3.3% since the day low of 77.80.

Kinda good if you BTFD this morning.

[deanroberthunt] 19/11/2018 14:13

so, she could double and still be cheap

[deanroberthunt] 19/11/2018 14:12

net debt is in dollars not £...year end will be $2.4bn or £1.86bn

a good ratio to work from is EV/EBITDA...anything under 10 is cheap

PMO is £650m+£1.86m = £2.51m EV
EBITDA = £545m EBITDA
EV/EBITDA = 2510/545 = 4.6

[jelenko] 19/11/2018 14:01

What do you mean not a good prospect? Name me a better one.

[excellance] 19/11/2018 13:48

So with oil under 70 and with debts of £2.5 billion, all of a sudden PREM isn't such a good prospect...and what about rockhopper now?

[privileged] 19/11/2018 13:34

haha, we're really clutching straws when we feel good that it's only down 1-2%! Just another few £k lost today :(, BTFD as they say