Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ggm5d] 21/10/2018 12:12

£1.50 by Christmas is fantasy! $75 oil & somewhere below 120p more realistic.

[jelenko] 21/10/2018 11:16

And over £1.50 by Christmas!!

[rbonnier] 21/10/2018 09:29

Traders were running around in the pit like headless chickens screaming sell sell sell last week you could here them as far north as watford gap services .Shorters are looking for sub £1 here next week as the Bears prepare to savage this in the pit .
One thing that could be learnt from this collapse is when brokers start advising Buy and increase their price targets get out as theyve only done that to get the share price up and their clients out before the wheels drop off .
If they say sell you should buy the dip as they want to get their spivs in on the cheap before the DCB .
108 by weds then watch em start jumping out of planes without a parachute !

[steve73] 21/10/2018 03:28

Mike - still plenty of Warrants around... About 52MM at my last count... far more than disclosed shorts, and just a little less than the latest SoL.

[chopyead] 20/10/2018 20:26

Leaky as an old tin bath PMO, so yes it should be interesting in what they have been told in advance?

[nav_mike] 20/10/2018 18:41

Another noticeable increase in the notified shorts over .5%

2 hedge funds have increased their position by more than 1m shares this month, and Marshall Wace by around 2.4m

No convertibles to hedge against this time round, so its either something else or they genuinely think PMO is overpriced, which I find very surprising

[rationaleee] 20/10/2018 08:47

We have Block 30 for Wahoo prospect. Talos wants in on Block 31. I'm sure both see another Zama equivalent prospect around.



Talos Energy has entered a transaction with Pan American Energy subsidiary Hokchi Energy offshore Mexico.

Hokchi will assign a 25% interest to Talos in block 31 in the Sureste basin. In exchange, Talos will assign Hokchi a 25% stake in block 2 to the north.

On completion, Hokchi will operate both blocks, with Talos owning 25% in each case. Completion is subject to approval by the Mexican oil and gas regulator, the National Commission of Hydrocarbons (CNH).

Talos secured the production-sharing contract for block 2 in September 2015 as part of Mexico’s Round 1.1 auction. Hokchi was awarded the PSC for block 31 in Round 3.1 this June.

Talos President and CEO Timothy S. Duncan said: “On both of our Mexican assets, we are taking action to facilitate quicker, more robust investment and shorter cycle time to production, and potentially a more material level of production.

“The swap with Hokchi is a great way to pool resources between two operators that have a proven track-record in offshore Mexico…We look forward to working alongside the Pan American team on blocks 2 and 31 while we focus our operational efforts not only on Zama but the other material opportunities we have put together on the block 7 acreage.”

Talos is applying proprietary seismic reprocessing over both blocks, and sees the transaction as a way of speeding up assessment and exploration of various prospects across the acreage, in particular the Acan (ex-Bacab) prospect in block 2.

Two wells will be drilled on block 2 from 2Q 2019 onwards, starting with the Acan prospect, with two more due to follow in block 31.

[chopyead] 19/10/2018 20:01

Fire,

Even in the top 1% elite, deals are done behind closed doors then false news is released to please the masses ;)


If you invest thinking the card game aint rigged then you need to play Bingo!


IMHO

[fitton] 19/10/2018 12:37

May already be out there

[fireplace22] 18/10/2018 20:03

Interesting Chopy, but can Saudi turn on the taps 'just like that'!
The US frackers must be delighted at Trump colluding to flood the oil market.

[chopyead] 18/10/2018 19:55

Think I touched on this a few days ago:

[ggm5d] 18/10/2018 19:51

SHORT:

That doesn't look good. Where pmo going to end up? 108? 103?

Short increasing: hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B43G0577/

They really are taking advantage of oil price decline to take this one down a peg or two.

[onedb1] 18/10/2018 14:34

it will later on , temporarily crude is bearish. I can see an August scenario coming , that will then bounce off to lead us much higher . 200SMA is where we are heading, if the 50SMA breaks i bet that algos will sell off and find buyers further down, I'll be a buyer as on fundamentals PMO makes money in the $70s . Lets see its all discourse, time will tell. we win some we lose some

[fitton] 18/10/2018 14:07

I can't see oil trading much lower in the short term.It appears that, in theory, but probably not in practic, with Iranian sanctions taking effect on the 4th November, speculation on oil will increase.If the short fall is absorbed then it could get more interesting on the down side but at this moment in time I expect oil to trade above its recent multi year high.In theory PMO should also achieve a new multi year high.

[onedb1] 18/10/2018 13:45

Yes I have 108 ! That is my possible add in too with Brent a few dollars lower than now ( IF AM RIGHT I accept trading is not always linear ) ! Am hoping we get a quick test of Brent and WTI channel lows followed by a good rebound , seasonality suggests builds in inventory for now .
Do not get frustrated with API and EIA conflicting data , EIA is the benchmark , also follow Genscape data. I have traded oil for over 10 years. I analyse 40 UK oil stocks and similar number in US . Plus ETFs and risk on risk off indicators , brent vs yields, brent and WTI vs other indicators. Its takes a lot of effort, if ever i meet you I'll be able to expand on this . Funny bit is that its risk management the tool that I mostly value. I am good at entries, less so on exits but its my risk and position sizing that I excel, I just do not allow any divergence to my rules, sometimes I bank tiny profits but prefer that to big losses . Sometimes I miss bigger profits but prefer not to chase.
Anyway lets see. A model that is 50% right I was told has the potential of 10 wrongs in a row at least once in 1000 trades, that can knock one's confidence. That side of trading is equally tough to manage

[fitton] 18/10/2018 12:35

So I am going to stick my neck out here and say that 118.4 looks like it the bottom of the cycle.108 was the bottom last month.

[fitton] 18/10/2018 12:07

onedb1, NAV_Mike

Thanks for the info.Very interesting

[daniel levi bmd] 18/10/2018 11:32

FYI

Union Jack Oil. Their Time Has Come. Buy A Slice Of The Pie.... Here's Why!

Try this one. Micro-cap but it's got a super UK Onshore asset book drilling starts within a month or so.

Dan
x

[nav_mike] 18/10/2018 11:20

fitton

As much as I despise shorting, what they do isnt manipulation, its what they do to earn money

Published shorts have been rising over the last week or so, and you can spot when they are active by the increase in their 'sell algos' at work on the SETS book. They are usually easy to spot as they are relentless in moving the offer lower, and hitting the bid in small chunks


The small trades you mention are just these algos working orders - after all they arent going to plonk large trades on the book, as it shows their hand

At this point in time, for whatever reason, some hedge funds are selling - I think its madness in the longer term scheme of things, but they will have their reasons

[onedb1] 18/10/2018 11:19

Risk . It's a mix of Quant and TA . If we see Brent decreasing a few more $ we know already how PMO and it's peers will react given it's beta . Fundamentals drive the long term investment case but short term its clearly a No . Look at Tesla . Would you trade on fundamentals alone ? One week $340 the next $280 ? What changed ? Some respectable fund managers have it at zero others at $500 . Fundamentals are my starting point and without a clear Macro view forget trading . But then entry exits , risk , cycles , patterns etc etc are all over layered . It's too long for a post on a B.B.

[onedb1] 18/10/2018 11:14

Morning Fitton, Trade the way you see fit for yourself . Best advice I have . I feel that a simple response is not possible . I referred to plotting various correlations and seasonalities . I have been trading energy and commodity stock professionally for over 8 years . Fundamentals alone do not explain variation in price . This topic is so huge. My model takes into consideration Macro , Patterns , Price Action and Rushk

[fitton] 18/10/2018 10:56

I would add the last time the share price fell beyond the level if would have expected last month, I did say in one of previous posts that I expected the share price to rise to a new multi year high and indeed that did happen.I also consider the downside from here to be limited and fully expect it to rise to a new multi year high in the not to distant future.