Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[spacedust] 22/12/2023 14:33

So every analyst and expert thunks thus is a super duper transforming deal the world has ever seen. Except market makers don't give a flax. 300p or thereabouts is what they think it's worth.

Every thing else is useless

[spacedust] 22/12/2023 14:32

Bought hbr yesterday at 250p it hurts too.

[zicopele] 22/12/2023 13:15

Sold HBR three days ago. It hurts.

[monkeybusiness1] 22/12/2023 13:06

Proactive Investors:

Harbour Energy deal compelling and surpasses expectations

Harbour Energy PLC (LSE:HBR)’s share price climbed a further 5% on Friday as the City gave the thumbs up to its $11.2bn acquisition of Wintershall.

Analysts at Jefferies said the deal was “very compelling,” while the team at Bank of America said it “surpasses expectations.”

“Harbour’s proposed acquisition with Wintershall Dea has defied market expectations of what was possible from its stated M&A ambitions,” BofA said in a research note.

“To us, diversification from the UK and its associated fiscal uncertainty was always the major route to re-rating Harbour’s muted valuation,” it added.

“Yet we acknowledge that the company has achieved a feat of such scale, necessitating the use of equity, without major dilution to existing shareholders,” it continued.

BofA pointed out that Harbour would move from near UK pure-play status down to around 25% production exposure whilst at the same time upgrading its credit metrics and reducing its cost of debt, if the proposed deal materializes.

BofA has a buy rating and 460p price target.

Barclays noted the deal marks the fourth major acquisition in the group's history and as CEO Linda Cook states is the "most transformational step yet in our journey."

It explained that a key part of the Harbour investment case has been to deliver value through acquisitions.

The bank highlighted that Harbour anticipates an increase in the dividend of 5% per share upon completion, with the "potential for additional returns" post completion over and above the base dividend.

Barclays also highlighted comments on the conference call after the deal was announced from Cook who stated that Harbour remains well placed to look for further potential opportunities, but that this needs to be done with “discipline and patience. “

Cook said on the call "nothing else could compete" with the Wintershall transaction when looking at other opportunities presented in the recent past.

Barclays rates Harbour Energy ‘overweight’ and Jefferies has a ‘buy’ rating.

[wolfofhounslow] 22/12/2023 12:24

No you're not lol

[spacedust] 22/12/2023 12:08

Hoping for a big spike finish

[spacedust] 22/12/2023 09:44

Ornthe deal doesn't go ahead. 12 months is faaar toooo long for this deal to happen. Come on 330p roll on

[stevenlondon3] 22/12/2023 09:41

Other investment bankers must be going over the terms to see whether they can offer BASF a better deal. If the current management makes a mess BASF can relatively easily become the majority shareholder. Happy holder.

[kibes] 22/12/2023 09:25

Shares are usually issued at a discount but Harbour is issuing new shares at 360p, a hefty premium. An excellent deal and a superb set of new assets outside the UK, can easily see this going over 500p.

[rmorris94] 22/12/2023 09:14

To be expected I reckon, will increase over next few months as merger becomes more certain (hopefully). Was tempted to increase, too fearful of some fca block or... something...

[spacedust] 22/12/2023 09:03

Yet despite all the fantastix news and magnificent figures the share price is stuck around 300p

[nigelpm] 22/12/2023 09:00

One of those genuine sensible and win:win deals that makes everyone happy.

[allstars001] 22/12/2023 08:38

Net equity for wintershall is around 3.5bn Currently Harbour operates around 2x on net assets (1.3bn net equity)Harbour at 360p after issue of shares will be 6.2bnTotal net assets will come to minimum 4.8bn2x net equity gives 9.2bn which is 55% higher than a 360p priceThis should easily go towards 500? And this excludes all the other potential benefits/ potential returns alongside going ftse100

[monkeybusiness1] 22/12/2023 07:02

Financial Times - Harbour Energy/Wintershall: minnow lands transformational deal

Purchase reverses UK oil and gas producer out of a strategic cul-de-sac

Often companies seeking transformational deals must pay up. Harbour Energy has managed to transform itself on the cheap.

The UK oil and gas producer, which before Thursday had an enterprise value of £2.4bn, will buy Wintershall Dea’s much larger business from BASF and investment firm LetterOne. It will pay an enterprise value of $11.2bn. In one swoop, it will more than double its scale, diversify its business, acquire assets cheaply and retain management control.

The deal reverses Harbour out of a strategic cul-de-sac. From a 190,000 barrel a day (boe/d) minnow, it will swell into a 500,000 boe/d proper sized fish — a peer with Aker BP and the US’s Apache. It will reduce its reliance on the choppy UK North Sea to some 40 per cent, down from virtually 100 per cent today, while adding productive Norwegian assets.

Net debt does jump from very little to $7bn-$8bn, given the added scale. Yet with the added cash flow the combined entity achieves investment grade, up from Harbour’s current BB rating.

The deal makes financial sense for Harbour shareholders. To begin with, they are not actually paying $11.2bn for Wintershall’s assets. The cash portion is only $2.15bn. Another $4.9bn is the face value of Wintershall debt, probably worth even less today given higher rates. The balance is 921.2mn newly issued shares, worth $2.7bn at Harbour’s undisturbed share price.

In sum, BASF and LetterOne receive about $9.5bn at the market value of the securities, roughly twice current year ebitda, or $8.6 for each barrel of 2P reserves. Not much, given the quality of Wintershall’s Norwegian production. Aker BP paid more than $20 a barrel for Lundin’s, much more oily, 2P Norwegian reserves back in 2022. Harbour’s shares jumped a fifth on the news.

Yet for BASF the deal makes strategic sense. It has long sought to exit from Wintershall, of which it owned 73 per cent. LetterOne blocked a share listing in 2022. It may be happy to have found safe harbour for Wintershall. Its bidder’s shareholders will agree.

[mickinvest] 22/12/2023 01:06

Rough figures would be 1.7b shares in issue, market cap £5B

If we're using 30/06/23 then we can't be far off being debt free whilst still paying $455m dividend end of 2024. We were looking at FCF of well over $1B with higher gas prices on Harbour's 190k so add 310k would be nearer $3B as possible Harbour's capex in Norway and Mexico can offset tax?

That just leaves $4.8B bonds or £3.8B.

Enterprise value £9B with potential to produce FCF of at least $3B and possibly £3B a year.

Way too cheap and anyone holding BP and Shell should be all over this at under £3.

[brazilnut1] 21/12/2023 23:12

£2.70 close tomorrow.

[mickinvest] 21/12/2023 22:14

* $2.15 billion of cash consideration to be funded
through cash flow generated from the Target Portfolio between the effective date of 30 June 2023 and
completion, and an underwritten bridge facility.

Nice

[wolfofhounslow] 21/12/2023 20:02

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [e-mail] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/0d1dd803-4e28-44e4-9345-24142285e8cc The deal reverses Harbour out of a strategic cul-de-sac. From a 190,000 barrel a day (boe/d) minnow, it will swell into a 500,000 boe/d proper sized fish - a peer with Aker BP and the US's Apache. It will reduce its reliance on the choppy UK North Sea to some 40 per cent, down from virtually 100 per cent today, while adding productive Norwegian assets.Net debt does jump from very little to $7bn-$8bn, given the added scale. Yet with the added cash flow the combined entity achieves investment grade, up from Harbour's current BB rating. The deal makes financial sense for Harbour shareholders. To begin with, they are not actually paying $11.2bn for Wintershall's assets. The cash portion is only $2.15bn. Another $4.9bn is the face value of Wintershall debt, probably worth even less today given higher rates. The balance is 921.2mn newly issued shares, worth $2.7bn at Harbour's undisturbed share price. 

[wolfofhounslow] 21/12/2023 19:27

https://www.ft.com/content/0d1dd803-4e28-44e4-9345-24142285e8cc

[wolfofhounslow] 21/12/2023 19:26

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [e-mail] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/0d1dd803-4e28-44e4-9345-24142285e8cc Often companies seeking transformational deals must pay up. Harbour Energy has managed to transform itself on the cheap.The UK oil and gas producer, which before Thursday had an enterprise value of £2.4bn, will buy Wintershall Dea's much larger business from BASF and investment firm LetterOne. It will pay an enterprise value of $11.2bn. In one swoop, it will more than double its scale, diversify its business, acquire assets cheaply and retain management control.

[spacedust] 21/12/2023 18:24

Feel for those like me who are stick since pmo days

Today a lot got sicked in 300p plus. Will sell tomorrow 50% of holding at 330p and then buy back in at 200p