Finished on the low of the day. Not sure I want to buy more as I have plenty, but tempting. Markets are weird. Elating/Depressing. |
There's a section in the US who seems to forget Trump was a failed President previously who ended up losing an election to some old bloke who struggled to walk and talk. It's comical the standing he has when he's more than likely going to make an ar$e of himself pretty quickly. Still feel Serica offer more upside in the short term than Harbour. |
I was caught flat footed with the rise of shale fracking in the US. I had always assumed Saudi was the swing producer and would remain so. The thing is. The reverse must be true too. It is only now the Permian that is growing and in general the sector looks to be going ex- growth. This means the power moves back to OPEC. Also the price sensitivities for a higher cost producer versus the Saudis mean that any success in lowering the oil price shifts balance of power further toward the lower cost producers. That said JP Morgan has predicted sub $60 oil and an oil glut for 2026. Interesting times |
 No idea but if not only HBR related here, possibly could additionally also be due to Trump and OPEC+ as highlighted by Bloomberg:
“OPEC+ Will Buckle Under Trump's Pressure”
The president wants a lower oil price. The cartel can save face while complying with his wish.
US President Donald Trump has a decades-long history of bashing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, starting with his 1987 book Trump: The Art of the Deal where he blamed the group for cripplingly high energy costs. Unsurprisingly, it only took him 72 hours after being sworn in to take aim at the cartel. Speaking at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23, he said he’d ask Saudi Arabia and its allies to “bring down the cost of oil.”
The cartel’s semi-public initial reaction to Trump’s comments — leaking a photo of several OPEC+ ministers meeting in Riyadh as if it was a show of unity — was comical; the gathering included top oil officials from the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, the two countries that have flouted production limits the most. In private, the response from OPEC+ is dismissive, but also guarded; no one wants to cross Trump. But behind closed doors, there’s been a flurry of meetings and consultations among the member states. I don’t believe OPEC+ can resist the pressure forever. |
Looking at the trend it seems we are headed for £2.20. |
Ye but yet Harbour continues to fall. Disgusting. |
Also no wonder that the HBR Chairman was selling sh*t loads of shares (and on what I thought was the cheap at the time!) here a while back as usual! |
Very much down to the CEO. Does not inspire confidence. |
Very poor! |
52 week low! |
Thought the acquisition/merger of Wintershall was supposed to be transformative, so far no evidence. |
This is getting to be silly cheap..
With Brent at 76$ ,Gas at year highs and technicals looking attractive why wouldnt you want to take a starting position at least ?! |
Frankly the performance of this company is appalling, they should have their UK assets a long time ago with the ridous Govts. that the IK continues to elect. Energy security is everything, yet successsive Govts have decimated the oil and gas sector with excessive taxation. |
Also added more, Brent up, UK and European Gas prices up (and trading close to 1+ year highs), GBP is also weaker against USD (resulting in even higher dividends via improved exchange rates) and yet, HBR share price is down AGAIN on relatively little volumes! Now understandably, tired & fearful sellers of today will regrettably be buyers of tomorrow here and at lot higher prices, that’s generally how markets operate. |
Added more |
Try as you might brazilnut - no way is harbour a longterm sell.
Great buying opportunity though. |
Looks like 2024 fcf missed by around 300m while projected 2025 fcf of 1bn is a fall on the 1.7bn fcf average over last 3 years for the wintershal portfolio. |
Shocking company run by shockingly bad management. Stop kidding yourselves otherwise. |
Doing some (admittedly noddy) maths, I have 2025 production costs at $2.3b, CAPEX of $2,6b and FCF of $1b for a total income of $6b ($6.1b in 2024).
Assuming 450kboepd that's a realised price of $38 per barrel.
Each $5 on the price of a barrel adds $115m of FCF. So if they get $68 per barrel then the FCF is $1.7b per annum. |
GS has been a broker to BP since 2022 according to the FT.
I think BP would be interested in Harbour assets?? |
Well they’ve tended to be the bidder rather than the bidee. The Wintershall acquisition was more of a merger I suppose. Who would be the most likely acquirer of HBR and would they wait for the disposal of the NS assets first? |
£3.40 to get. Would do me |
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