Carlos Slim doesn’t buy stakes for the fun of it. The madness of the last few days is a golden opportunity |
Added more today |
I think Andrew Neil nails it. |
I am expecting the Net Zero experiment to come to grief within the next two years with power cuts and prices going through the roof. Really, that can't happen fast enough. The numbers simply don't add up as electricity demand is increasing whilst supply is reducing with shutdowns of nuclear power and gas. Wind turbines cannot be quickly tied in without infrastructure in place, which of course it isn't. When panic arrives there will once again be a dash for gas as the only thing that can bail us out. |
Why would anyone take any notice of GS views?
They are only interested in their own profits and they will manipulate everything for their own benefit
Do you ever see GS downgrade any of the big US oil companies even though they are all about 3x or 4x more expensive than HBR? No
HBR are now the largest independent in Europe and yet they still have a far lower Market Cap than Aker BP or Var Energy
Aker BP £11.3 billion
Var Energy £7 billion
HBR £3.8 billion
HBR will eventually trade at similar levels and even when they are at £5 they will still only be at half the valuation of US oil companies |
US will not be producing much if sub $60 Brent, a lot of shale fields would be uneconomic. For that reason expect oil around $70-$75 Brent. |
I’ve taken a screenshot for posterity of the JP Morgan prediction of sub $60 Brent for 2026. Esp in light of the roll over of shale and the enormous energy demands of tech (AI, robotics, et al). |
For the contra view read this:-
On bitcoin. My gut feeling is the same, but I’m a big fan of Dominic Frisby. I would like to have been “wrong” and bought a bunch of bitcoin at $5k. As Keynes once said; the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. |
Well said kibes my views entirely crypto is a ponzi scheme and its being left unregulated for a good reason, its a first line of defence when people realize fiat currencies have little value at that point crypto will get more regulation than it can handle forcing investors back into fiat currency. |
The share prices of many good companies seems to be following the weather pattern in todays world - ridiculous swings and extremes......baffling... |
Hard to know where to invest.
As Peter lynch suggests, more money is lost sat idle on the sidelines waiting for the next stock market crash than tends to be lost by the crash itself - they can happen tomorrow or take years. They need a catalyst and I’m struggling to see one atm. My guts tell me it will occur following a nuclear incident or weapon strike. Hope I’m wrong.
I tend to hold stocks and funds for income with divis being reinvested through thick and thin.
No need for a cash position if you’re constantly reinvesting. |
With $4 trillion (created out of thin air) now supposedly 'invested' in cryptocurrency how can there be any money left to invest in real assets? And with newly created Trump coin valued at $billions and even Melania Trump has her own coin as well serious money is being poured into an open drain. How to trade in this environment? Buffett has most of his portfolio in cash, but even that is being printed like confetti as the Federal Reserve buys up junk government bonds. Something has to give...but real oil and gas reserves will always be worth something. |
Also. Some of the Algos I think are very sophisticated. E.g. analyse a headline decide whether it’s positive or negative and trade on that. Now with ChatGPT technology we can see how easy that might be to achieve. |
Yes bots increase volatility. Also trackers do too. To make the point, approx 25% of the ftse350 is passive funds. Then whatever the market does would be followed by the trackers making an exaggerated movement. I don’t know about the net effect of algorithms or bots but I bet it’s similar. Apparently over 50% is bots. Seems incredible. |
Ok low was 240 , how far is this going ???Outage didn't help with cashflow |
Ridiculous share price movement, we are now in the hands of trading bots working in tandem. |
ITH - around 22% they say with specials I have been awaiting a pullback since new year as I have just rediscovered it I thought it had been delisted from years ago when I last held it. ITH looks better value than HBR but a bit of both looks good |
“Broker Morgan Stanley summarised the update as ‘solid’, reiterating its ‘overweight’ stance on the shares. Full-year results are scheduled for 6 March, alongside a Capital Markets Day.” |
9.3 or 9.4% dividend seems about right basem1.
Almost 16% for Serica who will have a couple of decent FCF years ahead as likely to have very low tax charges in coming years with little profit for 2024 and high capex so they should restore balance sheet and Harbour need to show plans to eat into the $4.7B of debt. Not much between them on a 2 year view if SQZ can show a bit of reliability on their assets IF they have sorted their issues. |
But the dividend amount per share is unchanged yes? |
Actually apologies I have worked the dividend in dollars it should be 369m gbp which is 9.4% yield Happy to be corrected |
Guys have I worked the approximate yield out correctly here 455m dividend divided by 3.9bn mkt cap is circa 11% TIA |
The way to see it, the shareprice is currently carving out the support of a new upward channel.
Patience... |
There is more than enough ‘jam now’ shame nobody wants it. |
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