Hambledon Mining Share Discussion Threads

[chestnuts] 04/11/2012 16:52

Tom W
I think the rns was suppose to come out on my date Wednsday but Tom W had a meeting with HMB and they were not friendly, now remember last yr when they had the placing and the news was leaked to the press, i cant say it was TW as it would be libelous, but any way i think hmb knew that TW was selling so they waited till he had sold out and he told all his followers to sell, and yes hmb have got their own back and TW as egg on his face.

Also another scenario hmb is a holding company, they buy the company, then sell seki to their own company, and we are left with a listing with several £m in the bank they then close the company down take their share of the proceeds.....

[tymedici] 04/11/2012 16:40

I guess there must have been some conversations with the various fund managers to ascertain their likely intentions. Not sure how they bring pressure to bear on each individual (although I can imagine) (Who persuaded Tom W to recommend his followers to get out at just over 1p. or was this exceptioanlly bad timing)

PS. I really cannot believe that AR have not already got the full measure of TD.

[chipperfrd] 04/11/2012 16:36

Need to remember that EBRD have a lot of skin in the game with respect to HMB. It is not only the $3m worth of shares at 3.25p but also their $10m loan.

They have removed their director, presumably so they are not 'insiders', which allows them to pursue independent action if required.

Debt repayments are not due to commence until 2015 and I imagine the EBRD will wish to take the greatest care to ensure that the company is in a fit condition to meet those repayments.

The open pit should be able to make positive cash-flow now that the strip ratio has fallen, better grades are at the lower levels and TD3 availability removes the cap on production. So there should be a degree of positive cash-flow for the next two years from that side of the operation.

If the arrival of AR means that the Akmola deal will go ahead then more, high-grade, ore can be sourced from Tellur to complement or extend the current operations beyond 2 years whilst Stepok can be fully assessed.

But possibly the main question is regarding the stalled underground operations. Obviously the issue is the continued requirement for investment cash to get the UG fully up and running. Presumably the expectation is that with AR in control they will be able to source the additional funding required to complete the job - which has largely been already paid for by existing shareholders don't forget!

So we have the EBRD and existing institutional shareholders quite deeply in loss at the 60% offer of 2p. But potentially, with a fully operating plant, an operating open pit and a nearly completed underground operation, they would presumably see a reasonable probability of recouping those losses if they believe the incoming management have the necessary credibility to pull it all together.

I have to think that on the balance of probability, the institutions and EBRD will stay for the longer haul. If EBRD were to call in their loan early, then clearly the scenario would change completely!
Chip

[elban] 04/11/2012 16:22

Some people are living in dreamworld.

AR will get 100% control of HMB - don't be in any doubt about it.

If they could strong arm Kazakhgold with its multi-billionaire backing then what chance do tuppence 'appney HMB have?

The rule of law doesn't apply here - these guys own the law.

[lesteague] 04/11/2012 16:19

Glad to see some interesting thoughts around holding. I have a tiny holding here but I'm gonna hold, if anything to see what happens.

[vish65] 04/11/2012 16:12

Re Akmola - from offer letter

" Hambledon believes it has responded to all queries received from the Kazakh authorities and, having recently resubmitted certain documents amended as requested, is hopeful that the process will be completed later in
2012.Upon the completion of the Akmola Gold acquisition, work can commence on these two deposits"

"recently resubmitted" ?..."later in 2012" ? .After all the feet dragging by the authorities with this I'm surprised they have quoted a timeline in the offer letter. I thought the latest was a JV that Tim D was pushing for in 2013 ?. So offer completes in Nov , waiver arrives in Dec ? You wouldnt bet against it

[shores] 04/11/2012 15:43

The point is, if those 7 institutions do not accept a 2p offer then it only requires another 12% of 'no' vote and AR do not gain control. As Vish65 reflects, after a cooling down period it will dawn on most shareholders that 2p is just not enough. But 3.25p could be.

[vish65] 04/11/2012 14:37

I bet this Bboard alone has 3% (or more!)

[dofmeister] 04/11/2012 14:31

As at 29/10/12



Henderson Global Investors
83,559,664
8.53%




Majedie Asset Management
60,786,814
6.20%




EBRD
58,794,708
6.00%




Barclays Plc
51,602,948
5.27%




TD Direct Investing
50,059,500
5.11%




Hargreaves Lansdown
40,630,211
4.15%




Blackrock Inv. Management
35,870,080
3.66%



That lot only adds up to 39% so they will need more.

[vish65] 04/11/2012 14:31

Its a sobering thought that despite the track record here there have been TWO major investors looking to invest within the past 12 months , despite all the baggage with HMB (and there is lots). Many other juniors are struggling to get any.

As for Pi's and Inst's - every one is in for the same reason and everyone is well under with this offer. To accept means people think this is as good as it gets. Is that what EBRD ans AR think ?

My initial thought was just sell but puting yourself in other peoples shoes broadens the mind.

[shores] 04/11/2012 13:50

Is there any way to calculate the percentage held by the Institutions vis a vis those held by private investors? If all the PIs capitulate will that be it? Or if there were a way for all the PIs to demand 3.25p would that ensure a further higher offer? (FWIW my average is 6.9p and been here since 2006 - saw 22p in Oct 2008! so stressful times!)

[vish65] 04/11/2012 13:36

BTW - some good posts all - we need constructive thoughts pls

[jlyttle] 04/11/2012 13:36

my average is over 7p over the years..been invested since the hay days when the share price is in its teens...sitting at a massive loss and unsure as to whether stick or sell..

Any advice is welcome... whats the consensus of what will happen to P/I who stick after the company is taken over?

[vish65] 04/11/2012 13:30

Dof -Then why not offer 2.5p or 3p for the whole company - EBRD will not doubt have had a big hand in making 'introductions' and 'facilitating' any deal. There are lots of examples to google on the internet. What they have already committed in HMB they will want a decent return on to maintain there own credibility , after all their investmemt is very recent. (did they not see in their own due diligence that this position would arise in 12 months time ?)

I see it as AR and EBRD sharing out the risk and 'pairing up'. If we are to assume a cash injection via AR to get u/g moving then effectively they are paying 2,5 to 3p.

Also HMB does not present itself as 'easy money' There is a lot of baggage to sort out , costs are too high and gold needs to move higher. Seems to me the two main parties here have reached some 'middle ground' they can both work with. (but need to push the pi's out to do it)


I also have too many of these BTW

[dofmeister] 04/11/2012 13:00

J4,my initial reaction was to sell and move on, prompted by vociferous advice recieved from the current Mrs Meister. However, I am now minded to hold on in the hope of a better offer here or elswhere.

[tymedici] 04/11/2012 12:58

would like to know what conversations are taking place between the larger insitutional investors. Don't they hold the key? If a couple accept the games up.

[j4yjaybee] 04/11/2012 12:47

Dof

If you dont mind me asking what are you planning to do? I know from what you said you run into many millions presumably at quite a loss?

I am sadly also into a significant holding and am unsure what to do, my average is about 5.5p clearly quite a loss whatever happens.

Many thanks

JJB

[shores] 04/11/2012 12:41

Hello dofmeister - the bid values the company at around £20m. A few weeks ago chip commented that the resource was valued at $5/oz when the average across the sector is $50/oz. The buyer obviously knows this and is betting on the negative sentiment surrounding the company. ALL shareholders need to stand their ground.

[dofmeister] 04/11/2012 12:07

Shores - are you planning to hold on - quite a few of us on here represent a decent holding in the co.

[dofmeister] 04/11/2012 12:05

Clearly, as it was voted for by their appointed Director. So why not offer 3.25p for the whole co, still peanuts. i think nearly all would accept.

[shores] 04/11/2012 12:05

Thanks to hoveactually for sharing his pal's take on the issue. 2p is a derisory offer for any percentage of the shares. The Assaubayev family probably have a pull on the Akmola deal also. Don't see the Instis selling for 2p. With a fully working mine, albeit open pit, with an NAV higher than the offer and the resource of 2m ozs + let's just hope enough shareholders hold out for more. It's a poker table scenario.

[hoveactually] 04/11/2012 11:58

Because there is no way that the EBRD are gonna accept a heavily discounted offer for the shares they acquired at 3.25p and the warrants at 4.875p.
imo this deal has been brokered with their blessing.

[dofmeister] 04/11/2012 11:30

Then why not offer 2.5p or 3p for the whole company, still peanuts. The risk is them acquiring further shares and delisting. Not many Institutions will want to remaun invested where one investor holds over 50% of the co.