Hambledon Mining Share Discussion Threads

[hoveactually] 04/11/2012 11:18

of course they have, buying 60% of HMB at 2p per share is peanuts.
its interesting to read all the different discussion boards and people's different takes on this offer.
everybody pretty much agrees that HMB have got themselves where they are today predominantly thru weak management and a certain amount of bad luck and as such at the current valuation they have become a prime candidate for an opportunistic takeover bid.
for what its worth i asked my pal at Galvin who trades CFDs for me with IG Index what his take on it was and he gave me a call back yesterday.
his take is that a bid for the whole Company at 2p per share obviously wouldn't have worked otherwise thats almost certainly what they would have done. the 60% is what would seem be a likely outcome after discussions with the BOD and major holders making the point that investors such as the EBRD would have got themselves involved taking a 5/10 year view unlike the sort of investment timeframes us pi's would have had in mind.
he believes that they have assumed that virtually all the small investors will say yes but that is not necessarily a given as a number may well feel they are being short changed despite the demise of the share price this year.
his view is to sit tight and wait for the initial outcome as they may or may not
get the 50% acceptance they need to get to a 60% holding and they may well have to improve on the 2p to meet their objective.

[dofmeister] 04/11/2012 10:17

They certainly have the clout to finace Seki and desire to also list their existing Kazakh assets bought back from Kazakhgold.

[chestnuts] 03/11/2012 17:24

Vish

Ever since Akmola came on the scene, that as been the plan, its a very chaep mine to mine, its just that its been held up.

[vish65] 03/11/2012 17:17

reading the offer letter Seki comes across more of a liability rather than an asset. If they complete on Akmola will they go full tilt for that first (lower start up cost and its higher grade) and chip away at Seki to get it to a 'ready' state

[chestnuts] 03/11/2012 16:57

You have to wonder how are they going to fund it after take over, after all will they go for a placing, say at 1.8p knowing it would reduce their 60% down to 40%, or are they going to just go for debt, if they go for debt well why bother with A/R lets just sack the board bring in a new board, and go for a bank loan with a more crediable board, or they go for a placing and they increase their stake to 70% and then they could go for a full bid at 2p.

[vish65] 03/11/2012 16:40

Chip/Dof

A 60% stake seems like a 'backdoor' option to acquire a major stake and mitigate risk for the new owners. (HMB still needs sorting out on a number of fronts ).

The 18 month AIM listing period would seem to me to coincide with the planned Open pit closure , by which time other resources need to be on line. So AR are giving themselves 18 months to move HMB forward. If they can and HMB arrive at the point of being financed and a stable producer what is the likelihood of it remaining independant ? Not much IMV and an uneccesary listing. I'm sure the Assaubayev family could slot it into Kazakhgold or sell it to Polyus for a sum greater than 2p . (Particulary if the gold price moves up over the next 2 years)

To me the likelihood of financing (debt) , legal fine conclusion , Akmola completion seem enhanced and more in our favour than ever.

So what say we see HMB disappear completely in 18 months / 2 years for a price higher than the 3.25p EBRD paid ?

All conjecture but there may be a reason to hold on.

The bit I dont like is Mauritania. What are they thinking of ? Any thoughts welcome

[chipperfrd] 03/11/2012 15:34

dof,

Yes, I am wondering whether to keep a stake running after closure of the offer.

Probably worthwhile keeping ones options open as long as possible whilst scoping the possible outcomes.

Could be a useful exercise for debate here as we count down to offer completion.
Chip

[dofmeister] 03/11/2012 12:24

I'm keeping an open mind at the moment on the future of HMB following the partial takeover. Interesting to see that a well respected British investment fund, Hanson, (Hansonam.com)is taking a stake in African Resources.


The Hon Robert Hanson
Chairman
Robert joined N M Rothschild & Sons in 1983 where he worked initially in London and later at its subsidiaries in Hong Kong, Chile and Spain. In 1990, he joined Hanson PLC becoming a main board director in 1992 responsible for strategy, mergers, acquisitions and disposals. Robert resigned from Hanson PLC at the end of 1997 after the demerger to chair Hanson Transport Group, now Hanson Family Holdings. In 1998 he founded Hanson Capital Limited to capitalise on his worldwide network of close relationships with private venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, financiers and high net worth individuals. In 2006 Hanson Westhouse was formed by linking Hanson Capital Limited and Westhouse Securities with Robert becoming Chairman, a position he held until June 2009. In October 2009 Robert became chairman of Strand Hanson Ltd, an independent corporate advisory firm. Externally Robert became a director of Vancouver-based Ivanhoe Mines Ltd in 2001 and South Gobi Energy Resources in 2006.

[hectorp] 03/11/2012 11:53

Sorry to see what is effectively the end of HMB, was in at much higher prices but fortunately saw sense and got out at something like 8p and even that that was a 50% loss.

[hoveactually] 02/11/2012 23:33

ELBAN,
do you really believe this offer came out of the blue without any involvement of the EBRD? of course it didn't.
there is no way the Bank were gonna accept 2p for their shares and warrants so i firmly believe the end game is for African Resources and the EBRD to jointly own the Company with AR as the majority shareholder as there is no way a Bank would wanna be involved with the actual running of the Company.
i'm not sure if any Instis will initially refuse to play ball but i would guess the end game is 70% AR and 30% EBRD, AR will handle operations and EBRD will provide the finances and smooth the way.

[bam bam rubble] 02/11/2012 21:54

There are 979,721,513 issued shares of which the concert party now own 88,448,936 (9.028%)

Blackwill Trade Ltd. (a connected party acting in concert with African Resources) acquired 88,448,936 HMB shares (9.02% of the issued capital) from director Nicholas Bridgen at 1.8p the sale of which completed 10 trading days before the offer was announced to the market. Blackwill Trade will not be transferring these shares under the 2p offer.

To get to 60% African Resources will acquire at 2p a further 499,383,972 (50.972%) from existing holders who will be offered the chance to sell half their shares at that price.

Founder Nick Bridgen elected to get his shares sold to the concert party first off and may have had a hand in the deal. So instead of selling 51% at 2p then seeing what happens with the rest, he sold the lot at 1.8p receiving £1,592,080, which equates to selling 51% at 2p under the deal and the rest at 1.59p. As such Mr Bridgen effectively priced HMB post-deal at 1.59p which is more or less the current bid price. Its about -70% below the IPO price but considering its an AIM penny share with its sole asset in Kazakhstan, that actually represents a respectable loss. Well done to all the directors advisors and fundraisers.

[sloppyg] 02/11/2012 21:21

Chestnuts - there is zero chance of another offer. The ducks have been lined up for many months and we are just witnessing the end game.

It would take weeks of due diligence for another party to get themselves into the same position. Palms that need greasing have been duly greased and it is all but a done deal.

[elban] 02/11/2012 21:04

Don't ignore the obvious.

These guys clearly will not want 60%.
They will want all the assets.

Thus, two choices: (1) they can only afford to buy the 60% OR (2) they plan to pay less for the final 40%.

Given the pressures that have engulfed HMB so far - I wouldn't be surprised if remaining sharholders had a very hard ride once the locals are in control.

I have watched SKR for 3 years - their shareholders have been totally screwed.

[chestnuts] 02/11/2012 18:25

Yes it will be interesting if the TD3 fines get sorted, and Akmola agreement gets resolved quickly, when you look back you do have to wonder who as been pulling the strings, but you never know a better offer might come in yet, lets face it for $30m they are getting a cheap mine.

[1nf3rn0] 02/11/2012 18:05

"Such is the nature of an overly negative market allowing predators to make easy kills"

I'd replace "overly negative" with "rigged"!

[sloppyg] 02/11/2012 17:28

Good post chip.

A sad ending, although not unexpected.

Many as you say will be underwater here. Sadly In my experience Aim does anything other than reward patience and a long term view. Dilution follows dilution before either goes to the wall or gets taken private for someone to make the real bucks.

[chipperfrd] 02/11/2012 17:06

Hi loppylugs,

I am not altogether surprised! The stock had become extremely oversold and, as drewz has pointed out, there is a whole lot of sunk costs plus a decent harvest of in-ground gold, making an extremely attractive purchase for effectively peanuts!

I imagine that both the Akmola deal and the TD3 fines will magically become resolved once this T/O becomes effective.

A similar circumstance happened to me over on ENK this year - just before a long-awaited BFS was due to be published! Such is the nature of an overly negative market allowing predators to make easy kills.

I had picked up a lot of shares over the summer so I will manage to 'wash my face' on this T/O, but I regret that many holders will probably have made losses and the company itself has been very poorly treated since the TD3 incident.

I have not fully made up my mind as to accepting the terms of the offer but will probably close out, even though I have a pretty clear notion that the new owners will make money once they are in control.

All the best
Chip

[bam bam rubble] 02/11/2012 16:57

To summarise the sad demise of this company the Assaubayevs acquired 9% from the outgoing founder and will pay tuppence a share for 51% of the remaining equity so get 60% with not many shares needed (or brown envelopes needed to buy the votes) for a delist to become a formality. The deal therefore paves the way for cronies to remove the burden of a listing and take the asset to develop themselves or more likely spin it on to fellow cronies at a markup. I wouldn't give much credence to Daffern's assurance that the Russians will follow 'best endeavours' to keep HMB listed for 18 months - there's no guarantee of that and also not to fret if the mine is pinched as they could always find a patch of turf in Mauritania to keep the dream alive. Nay, the shares remain a sell.

[giant steps] 02/11/2012 15:46

Reminder

"
It is expected that Sabine Anderson, the appointee director of the EBRD, will resign as a Hambledon Director following the Unconditional Date. EBRD retain the right to nominate a director to the Hambledon Board for so long as they continue to have an interest in Hambledon Shares.

"

[chestnuts] 02/11/2012 15:40

Its funny how the EBRD director as stepped down, does this mean that they have agreed to sell,
Also what happens if they get less than 50% will they go into the market and buy or will the deal colapse, i personaly think some one will come in and put in a higher bid,

[loppylugs] 02/11/2012 15:36

Hi Chip,

What is your take on this latest rns?

Many thanks