The Gym Share Discussion Threads

[davr0s] 16/1/2018 19:24

Chart breaking up = bullish. All you need to know - I am adding tomorrow

[eastbourne1982] 16/1/2018 16:54

Clearly this is a growth share, that doesn't mean the valuation is right.

With regards to broker prices, who cares, they are pointless.

[shauney2] 16/1/2018 16:41

You based your numbers which were wrong on 95 gyms and last years interims .Not one word about growth and the self funding roll out from free cash.

Numis up their target to 287 from 260p

[eastbourne1982] 16/1/2018 16:19

shauney2,

Do you actually pay any attention to valuation when investing ??

Or do you just read what the CEO etc says, think oh that sides nice, I'll buy that.

Ignore the words, look at the numbers, at £2.40 these are a poor investment.

[shauney2] 16/1/2018 16:14

Blimey that was a quick edit Eastbourne.Before the edit you said the full year was £6m and you were waiting to buy at £1

You need to edit the 95.They now have 129 gyms which includes the acquisition of 18 gyms from Lifestyle fitness whic is expected to be "significantly earnings enhancing by 2019".

"LIVE IT., the Company's premium pricing product, launched successfully in 44 sites in November 2017. Initial uptake is encouraging with decision taken to rollout the product on a region by region basis across the entire estate by May 2018"

[shauney2] 16/1/2018 15:16

"barely makes money"? Give us a break down of the last results then Eastbourne.

While i'm waiting.....A self funding ride to growth.

Good to see the recent acquisition bedding in well.Can only add to the last EPS growth of 30%

"The business is in great shape to achieve the substantial growth in profitability included in its 2018 plans, as it benefits from the significant expansion of the past 2 years"

[eastbourne1982] 16/1/2018 13:31

No value here, 300 million valuation and this business barely makes any money.

Why would you buy when there is no barrier to entry in what is a saturated market.

[mount teide] 16/1/2018 13:21

The reason we are not higher is that there is a tussle going on with a group of shorters who last summer built a 6.13% short position (without any single holding being of a notifiable size - hmmmmm), which has recently seen a number of participants throw in the towel as the total short position was reduced to 4.03% in December 2017.

Todays update will probably have made grim reading for the rest.

[mount teide] 16/1/2018 08:47

Very pleased with that Update - tremendous progress achieved over the last 12 months.

[izztre] 16/1/2018 07:24

Very strong update

[tradekeeper] 08/1/2018 19:27

DIRECTOR DEALINGS: Gym Group Non-Executive's Husband Buys Shares
By Alliance | Mon, 8th January 2018 - 17:31
Share this
LONDON (Alliance News) - The Gym Group PLC said Monday Lorcan Woods, the husband of Non-Executive Director Emma Woods, purchased 8,930 shares at a price of 224.278 pence per share.

It is not disclosed how many shares Woods holds following this transaction.

Shares in the health and fitness facilities provider closed up 2.7% at 225.00 pence on Monday.

By Dayo Laniyan; [e-mail]

Copyright 2018 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

[...]

[rolandormrod] 17/12/2017 11:08

Probably more likely to defect to a health club like virgin active. Been a member of DL and GYM, two totally different markets in my opinion

[lullabite] 16/12/2017 23:13

Sounds good to me

[davr0s] 11/12/2017 18:16

It's the end of day uncrossing trade

[zoolook] 11/12/2017 17:32

Peculiar over the odds trade of 6,989 at 223.00p listed as a sell

[cockerhoop] 02/11/2017 18:55

Potential gig economy issues

[shauney2] 19/9/2017 16:59

From citywire

Don’t undervalue The Gym Group, says Berenberg

The Gym Group (GYM) has acquired 18 gyms in its latest deal but Berenberg said the business was still materially undervalued.

Analyst Owen Shirley reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 300p on the stock, after it acquired 18 gyms from Lifestyle Fitness for £20.5 million. The shares were trading up 0.6%, or 1.4p, at 215p at the time of writing.

Shirley said the group should now reach 109 sites by the end of the year and he believes it ‘can become a materially larger operation at scale’.

‘The Gym Group trades at 22.4x 2018 estimated price/earnings... however, we note that putting existing sites on mature earnings would see it trading at c.11.5x - materially undervaluing the rollout potential of the business,’ he said.

[battlebus2] 15/9/2017 19:18

Held these from Shauney mentioned them in the 170's and never looked at this board much so good to see the likes of QP here 👍

[mount teide] 15/9/2017 18:10

As you say its best to deal in fact not fantasy!


Some Gym Market Statistics: Source: Leisure Database - State of the UK Fitness Industry Report - dated 31 March 2017.

Pure Gym is the current low cost market leader. On average Pure Gym charge around £7.60 more per month than The Gym Group. If Gym Group increased their charges by just £3.80 a month, half the price difference with that of Pure Gym; on current membership levels of circa 500,000, that would more than double Gym Groups current EBITDA of £22.7m.

Across high population London, Gym Group have 38% of the current low cost market, nearly twice their largest two rivals combined.

Despite the rapid growth over the past few years, there are still only 515 low cost gyms nationwide, just 7.6% of the current total gym market. Low cost gym membership has grown over the last 5 years at an average CAGR of 44%, while traditional high cost private and public sector gyms has seen growth of 0% and 1% respectively.

There are over 2700 public gyms - each has on average only 26% of the equipment of a low cost gym, 23% of the membership numbers, and a membership fee some 76% higher. And there has been a 16% reduction in spending on public sector sporting facilities over the last three years, which remains on a sharp downward trend.



Having trained in high cost gyms for over 30 years and having once been an investor/ part owner of a high cost gym, looking at the market as a whole, I strongly suspect the low cost gym revolution(4 year CAGR of 44%) is still in its infancy, accelerating and has probably a decade or more to run before getting close to saturation level.

Today there are 3,504 private gyms with an average monthly fee of £50, 2,709 public gym facilities with an average monthly fee of £30, and just 515 low cost gyms with an average monthly fee of £17.

I expect the clients of Public sector gyms(CAGR over last 5 years of 1%), to be the principal target of the low cost gyms over the next decade, particularly since public sector sports facility funding has been cut sharply over the last 3 years (16% down).

If you think paying extra to train at a high cost gym gives access to better equipment and more knowledgeable staff, you will be sadly mistaken. My local Virgin gym has 8,500 members and despite each paying circa £600 a year, i can count on one hand the number of people who look any different from one year to the next. Why is this the case? Because, changing your appearance or conditioning as it is known, requires lowering body fat levels, which no matter how hard you train is achieved overwhelmingly by diet(a reduced calorie intake - 300 a day less for 6 months will show astonishing results with or without training).

Ask anyone who knows how to get results in a gym(few do): if they could do only one resistance exercise for the rest of their lives to help keep in shape what would it be? - the answer would be SQUATS combined with a calorie controlled diet - nothing, with the possible exception of weighted chins and dips comes remotely close to getting the same results. Like all gyms my local Virgin Gym has a very high turnover of members; it's easy to see why, as the only change most experience in a year is that they are £600 lighter in the wallet!

Despite the gym having 8,500 members, i never have to queue to get on the ONE squat rack or ONE chinning/dip station this huge gym has - remarkable, since these are the only resistance exercises that create sufficient training intensity to stimulate muscle growth but, most people avoid them like the plague preferring to concentrate on low intensity exercise machines, which are largely a waste of time.

How effective are squats?
Check out Galabin Boevski, an elite, highly conditioned 10.5 stone bodyweight class Olympic Gold Medal winner and multi world record holder Olympic Weightlifter finishing off a training session with some 250kg/550lb squats - so routine he does not even bother with a belt or having a spotter in attendance.



AIMHO/DYOR

[keith95] 15/9/2017 15:50

I'm a member of this gym in the Hemel area .... cheap and cheerful located next to Tescos which is convenient ... but small and uncomfortably full at peak times, namely after work, and weekends on rainy days - an even distribution of customers is difficult so this company will only by acquisition and when the fad fades as often happens with these things .... and especially so given the regular prima donnas that frequent these places hogging the equipment .... clubs like this only survive if they have a large number of members who fail to attend regularly ....

"Some deal in fact. Others deal in fantasy."

DYOR