Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[habshan] 13/4/2020 21:34

"You very transparent Habshan lol"

What on earth's the matter with you China, it's called discussion and debate and that's what these boards are for. I thought better of you.

"So it's definitely the same money, there are not two cases where BankMed confiscated $1bln."

The Lebanese liquidity crisis is a country wide issue affecting ALL the country's banks and nobody, either the local populace, foreign depositors and even entities like IMMS and the KRG can get their money out as the banks have imposed their own informal capital controls.

The government is looking at recapitalizing the entire banking sector because the banks are in danger of going bust. That's why the likes of IMMS and the KRG are having to go to court to get their money.

hxxps://www.gfmag.com/magazine/march-2020/lebanon-liquidity-crisis

"Lebanon: Facing Down A Liquidity Crisis."

"Lebanon is entangled in an unprecedented liquidity crisis. The local currency has plummeted; inflation is soaring. Banks have imposed informal capital controls, fueling rising popular unrest. In early February, Diab’s team proposed a plan to end the financial crisis. The road map includes public-sector reforms, interest rate cuts and recapitalization of banks."

IMMS have had a good result in court. That bodes well for the KRG lawsuit and is a huge step in the right direction, but it's a self evident truth that if the banks can't pay then nobody gets their money until they CAN pay.

[hhhold2] 13/4/2020 21:11

Hmm,
30% drop in demand, 10% cut from opec, storage getting filled to capacity, not adding up !


expect this to retrace very soon , bear trap .

[chinese_takeaway] 13/4/2020 21:01

The court case regarding the $1 Billion that was confiscated in Lebanon by BankMed from oil trader IMMS, reportedly related to KRG payments for IOCs (by S&P Global Platts), has been settled. #dno #gkp #GENL #SNM https://t.co/ZdtEYX3Xdz

[chinese_takeaway] 13/4/2020 21:01

https://t.co/0DN07Poab8#GKPInsiders ( eg J PMorgan+4.5m sh now at over 5.7% to 12m+ in just past 3 weeks ) GKP been in implementation agreement since June '19Sale by scheme announced shortly. Instis driven share price down to make co super cheap on these valuation metrics whilst filling up on retail sells https://t.co/0DN07Poab8

[chinese_takeaway] 13/4/2020 21:01

https://t.co/1dWUlCfn5w3 years AFTER HOLDING 28.8m shares and NEVER selling  1 , LANSDOWNE (who are acting for Morgan Stanley) HAVE CHOSEN NOW to BUY very very  aggressively, OVER 2,100,000 in PAST 3 weeks IMMINENT deal clearly NOW KNOWN to them .JP Morgan even more voraciousLANSDOWNE PARTNERS holding on behalf  Morgan Stanley bought 2.1 m shares  13/3 to 1/4 Now  >OVER 31m holdingJPMORGAN same 2 WK period BOUGHT OVER 4.55m shares now > 12.05m https://t.co/1dWUlCfn5w

[chinese_takeaway] 13/4/2020 21:01

https://t.co/cd69rAFs8lPEEL HUNT BROKERS ANALYSIS :BUY :  TARGET 287PThe business is currently having to withstand a volley of unforeseen negative developments, the combination of which has caused the share price to fall -60% in the past month. However, GKP's financial discipline in recent years has ensured the business today is in good health and is therefore in a strong position to weather this period of increased volatility. Having now moved to update our asset model to factor in new production expectations and Shaikan capex phasing over the coming years, our DCF analysis still shows considerable upside to the share price. Our Core NAV for GKP now sits at £622m, equivalent to 287p/share (from 345p). This is where we also choose to set our target price and therefore maintain our BUY RECOMMENDATION .https://t.co/fMaubyPbsl

[chinese_takeaway] 13/4/2020 21:00

You very transparent Habshan lol

[habshan] 13/4/2020 20:31

I still think we're talking about two separate $1 billion deposits here Urals and the IOC payments are dependant on the KRG money not the IMMS money.

The court has ruled on the IMMS deposit but not the one belonging to the KRG, and according to the original news reports the payment problem is due to the KRG money being blocked.


"Dubai - The oil ministry of Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq has been unable to pay energy companies operating in the semi-autonomous region because its cash has been stuck in a Lebanese bank facing a liquidity crunch and the oil price crash will only make matters worse, sources told S&P Global Platts.

The Kurdish government had $1 billion in the bank account, which it cannot access because of the liquidity issues caused by the financial crisis in Lebanon, a source told Platts.
"That was cash the KRG put in there for a rainy day and now [is] not able to draw," said the source."

[habshan] 13/4/2020 19:47

Thanks for that explanation Urals.

And thanks for finding and posting up the original snippet.

It's an important issue so let's hope it pans out accordingly and we start getting some regular payments.

[urals] 13/4/2020 19:39

Gkp sell to KRG on 3 month credit terms ,KRG sell to trading houses on credit terms , trading house sells to buyers on credit terms...................Bank freezes trading house deposits........Chain collapses , nobody can get paid,......Bank releases funds , everyone gets paid , Inc GKP arrears

[habshan] 13/4/2020 19:31

"The trading houses have been receiving payments ever since !!!!"

We seem to be talking at cross purposes Urals.

You seem to be saying that because the trading houses have been receiving payments since 2016 then they in turn have been paying the IOCs since then.

Is that what you're saying.

[urals] 13/4/2020 19:06

The court case regarding the $1 Billion that was confiscated in Lebanon by BankMed from oil trader IMMS, reportedly related to KRG payments for IOCs (by S&P Global Platts), has been settled. #dno #gkp #GENL #SNM https://t.co/ZdtEYX3Xdz

[urals] 13/4/2020 19:06

https://t.co/0DN07Poab8#GKPInsiders ( eg J PMorgan+4.5m sh now at over 5.7% to 12m+ in just past 3 weeks ) GKP been in implementation agreement since June '19Sale by scheme announced shortly. Instis driven share price down to make co super cheap on these valuation metrics whilst filling up on retail sells https://t.co/0DN07Poab8

[urals] 13/4/2020 19:06

https://t.co/1dWUlCfn5w3 years AFTER HOLDING 28.8m shares and NEVER selling  1 , LANSDOWNE (who are acting for Morgan Stanley) HAVE CHOSEN NOW to BUY very very  aggressively, OVER 2,100,000 in PAST 3 weeks IMMINENT deal clearly NOW KNOWN to them .JP Morgan even more voraciousLANSDOWNE PARTNERS holding on behalf  Morgan Stanley bought 2.1 m shares  13/3 to 1/4 Now  >OVER 31m holdingJPMORGAN same 2 WK period BOUGHT OVER 4.55m shares now > 12.05m https://t.co/1dWUlCfn5w

[urals] 13/4/2020 19:06

https://t.co/cd69rAFs8lPEEL HUNT BROKERS ANALYSIS :BUY :  TARGET 287PThe business is currently having to withstand a volley of unforeseen negative developments, the combination of which has caused the share price to fall -60% in the past month. However, GKP's financial discipline in recent years has ensured the business today is in good health and is therefore in a strong position to weather this period of increased volatility. Having now moved to update our asset model to factor in new production expectations and Shaikan capex phasing over the coming years, our DCF analysis still shows considerable upside to the share price. Our Core NAV for GKP now sits at £622m, equivalent to 287p/share (from 345p). This is where we also choose to set our target price and therefore maintain our BUY RECOMMENDATION .https://t.co/fMaubyPbsl

[urals] 13/4/2020 19:05

The trading houses have been receiving payments ever since !!!!Sorry to disappoint you LOL

[habshan] 13/4/2020 19:00

"Oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan have started receiving direct payments from some of the world’s largest trading houses, as a deepening budget crisis has left the regional government struggling to pay its bills. Genel Energy, Gulf Keystone Petroleum and DNO all received between $15m and $30m directly from one trading house in January, an official Kurdish government report showed on Thursd"

Sorry to disappoint you Urals but that quote is from this FT report dated 25th Feb 2016.

[habshan] 13/4/2020 18:50

"Oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan have started receiving direct payments from some of the world’s largest trading houses"

Good stuff Urals.

Where there's a will there's a way.

[urals] 13/4/2020 18:45

The court case regarding the $1 Billion that was confiscated in Lebanon by BankMed from oil trader IMMS, reportedly related to KRG payments for IOCs (by S&P Global Platts), has been settled. #dno #gkp #GENL #SNM https://t.co/ZdtEYX3Xdz

[urals] 13/4/2020 18:44

https://t.co/0DN07Poab8#GKPInsiders ( eg J PMorgan+4.5m sh now at over 5.7% to 12m+ in just past 3 weeks ) GKP been in implementation agreement since June '19Sale by scheme announced shortly. Instis driven share price down to make co super cheap on these valuation metrics whilst filling up on retail sells https://t.co/0DN07Poab8

[urals] 13/4/2020 18:44

https://t.co/1dWUlCfn5w3 years AFTER HOLDING 28.8m shares and NEVER selling  1 , LANSDOWNE (who are acting for Morgan Stanley) HAVE CHOSEN NOW to BUY very very  aggressively, OVER 2,100,000 in PAST 3 weeks IMMINENT deal clearly NOW KNOWN to them .JP Morgan even more voraciousLANSDOWNE PARTNERS holding on behalf  Morgan Stanley bought 2.1 m shares  13/3 to 1/4 Now  >OVER 31m holdingJPMORGAN same 2 WK period BOUGHT OVER 4.55m shares now > 12.05m https://t.co/1dWUlCfn5w

[urals] 13/4/2020 18:44

https://t.co/cd69rAFs8lPEEL HUNT BROKERS ANALYSIS :BUY :  TARGET 287PThe business is currently having to withstand a volley of unforeseen negative developments, the combination of which has caused the share price to fall -60% in the past month. However, GKP's financial discipline in recent years has ensured the business today is in good health and is therefore in a strong position to weather this period of increased volatility. Having now moved to update our asset model to factor in new production expectations and Shaikan capex phasing over the coming years, our DCF analysis still shows considerable upside to the share price. Our Core NAV for GKP now sits at £622m, equivalent to 287p/share (from 345p). This is where we also choose to set our target price and therefore maintain our BUY RECOMMENDATION .https://t.co/fMaubyPbsl

[urals] 13/4/2020 18:43

IMMS :)Oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan have started receiving direct payments from some of the world's largest trading houses, as a deepening budget crisis has left the regional government struggling to pay its bills. Genel Energy, Gulf Keystone Petroleum and DNO all received between $15m and $30m directly from one trading house in January, an official Kurdish government report showed on Thursd