Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[gkp_banggone] 09/2/2019 09:01

Davros 😂😂😂🕰ï¸?RNS - SOLD BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENTBy 8:00am Tuesday 19th FebruaryðŸ'ŒYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊ðŸ'–AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOME ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ–¤ðŸ–¤ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'œThe more their proxy Citigroup /Pareto have bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super CONSERVATIVE 🌋ðŸ'‹!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈

[stockport loser] 09/2/2019 09:00

The PSC is not recognised by the ICG, therefore not a sellable asset. Maybe in 5 years time...

[habshan] 09/2/2019 08:54

CNPC.

I look forward to seeing that confirmed in an RNS.

I'm intrigued by Mark Antelme's remark "don't focus on the PSC there's a lot of other stuff going on in the background"

Was he trying to tell us something, and if so, what?

How can we not focus on the basic terms of the contract.

Knowing whether we have 80% or 58% is hardly immaterial.

But I'm with you in that there's sure as hell something going on.

There are just too many things that they can't or don't want to talk about.

[stockport loser] 09/2/2019 07:57

What about the 40% infrastructure taxes that Gkp owe the Krg? When is this going to be paid?

[habshan] 09/2/2019 07:45

"P2 - perhaps it a question to GKP to clarify! Good luck with that"

Pensioner/OD.

I tried to get some clarity on this from IR three weeks ago by asking this question:-

16th Jan 19.

"In Pareto's presentation of last September they told us that the WI is 80%, with the caveat (subject to reduction post government back-in following implementation of 2nd Shaikan PSC Amendment.)

In this morning's Pareto presentation they give the WI as 80% without any such caveat.

May we take it that the figure of 80% has been agreed with the MNR and is now a fact."

This was their response:-

"GKP now has an 80% working interest in Shaikan, as per the Shaikan PSC executed in 2007.  Discussions which could lead to a PSC amendment continue and GKP will inform the market in due course. As previously communicated, if the PSC is amended, it is expected to be at least neutral to the company."

I didn't find that particularly enlightening so asked for further clarification but didn't get a response. My feeling is that they didn't want to discuss it further.

It is correct that our WI has always been 80%, but subject to a reduction to 58% should the KRG decide to exercise their back in rights.

But that would mean them stumping up their share of the costs. It may be that this is what is being negotiated and is holding up the agreement.

In addition they are now using the term "IF the PSC is amended", which says to me that it's not yet agreed.

Then why remove the caveat? I don't know.

We are told not to focus on the PSC as there is a lot of other stuff going on in the background, but I certainly look forward to the day to say the least, when we have it confirmed what our Working Interest is.

So we wait.

[stockport loser] 09/2/2019 07:40

I can't see the share buy back on the presentation.Please explain?

[nestoframpers] 08/2/2019 23:08

GKP own the PSC that is all they have to sell.

[officerdigby] 08/2/2019 22:53

OH I'm unfiltered!. :-). It was just my interpretation on the changing wordage.


AKAIK you can't sell a percentage of an oil field you don't own. Even if you live in Bermuda!

Perhaps you can lose it though, Hey hey.. Hick!

P2 - perhaps it a question to GKP to clarify! Good luck with that...

[nestoframpers] 08/2/2019 22:46

To know what GKP can sell you need to know the Bermudan rules , the major share holders hold enough to do what they want IMO.

[officerdigby] 08/2/2019 22:40

Pensioner28 Feb '19 - 21:31 - 579429 of 579431
0 5 0
So, now it's official 591m 2P and 80% W.I. but there's nothing out on rns. Is this right?


Essentially its 80% W.I. as that what they are paid every month pro rata.
Working Interest is not Ownership IMO.

MNR can't get their WI back w/o paying the money owed. But I don't think GKP can sell 80% of field!.

[lifeson] 08/2/2019 21:43

P2, they will probably just leave confirmation of those 2 figures to the FY results.

. . . wait a minute . . . what FY results?

[pensioner2] 08/2/2019 21:31

So, now it's official 591m 2P and 80% W.I. but there's nothing out on rns. Is this right?

[steephill cove] 08/2/2019 20:47

Presentation Out Slide 23.You don't build a pipeline of that diameter & that magnitude for upto "40000"; "55000" or even "75000" bopd....

[stockport loser] 08/2/2019 20:35

The share price is down today is the only fact.Clown talk is just for clowns.

[gkp_banggone] 08/2/2019 19:24

Davros ðŸ˜RNS - SOLD BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENTBy 8:00am Tuesday 19th FebruaryðŸ'ŒYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊ðŸ'–AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOME ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ–¤ðŸ–¤ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'œThe more their proxy Citigroup /Pareto have bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super CONSERVATIVE 🌋ðŸ'‹!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈