Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[nestoframpers] 16/3/2021 21:55

here you go Jessie . RIP Bob


oil_investor11 Jul '17 - 08:06 - 543645 of 626240
0 23 4
Oh dear.

A number of people on here are working themselves into a rage because they can't get a grip on what actually happened with GKP. So let's try to clarify things a bit.

Todd Kozel obtained the Shaikan PSC thanks to the Texas Keystone connection. The acreage had originally been with DNO in a sort of "land grab" which the KRG had to rectify with acreage freed-up. RAK wanted to take GKP over, presumably including the Shaikan PSC which hadn't been put into GKP at that point. TK left the PSC floating loose - Lord Justice Christopher Clarke thought that made perfect sense - and the RAK takeover was not completed.

Shaikan had a 75% to 80% chance of being a dud. This was explained in detail to Justice Clarke. The high chance of failure was due to no closure being identified on the Western flank - so even if the Jurassic were on the oil migration path, the oil might never have been trapped. What wasn't known was that there was a massive slip fault to the West, within the Sheikh Adi block which wasn't GKP's acreage at that time, and the Shaikan structure could retain oil.

GKP tried to farm-down their 80% operating stake, to reduce risk. Presumably they would have gone down to about a 25% to 40% stake if another E&P had given them a free carry. But no deal could be done, and GKP had to fund their 80% themselves. The only reason why GKP has 58% today is that no farm-down deal was done: otherwise it would probably be half that, or less.

Against all the odds, the well came in. A Jurassic gross pay interval of over 1000 metres was discovered, with c. 350 metres of net pay. The Jurassic oil was highly mobile under natural reservoir conditions. In addition there were huge volumes in the Cretaceous and in the Cretaceous flanks, and also a lot of light oil etc. in the Triassic. As the Appraisal wells were drilled, the volumes of Oil In Place increased, as independently assessed by Ryder Scott and Dynamic Global Advisors. Extensive specialist studies were also conducted on the fracture system, which was found to be very extensive. An increasing range of independent P90-P50-P10 figures were given, the last of which was 13.7 billion barrels P50 Oil In Place. But the P10 (and P5 etc) numbers were higher, and it has been said that oil in the Cretaceous flanks, which would probably not flow without the use of Enhanced Oil Recovery, were not included. Both John Gerstenlauer and TK expressed the view that there might be more than 13.7 billion barrels Oil In Place in total. Sophisticated pressure testing conducted at Shaikan-1 over a 3-month period indicated a Connected Volume in the Jurassic of c. 13 billion barrels: the KRG and the 20% operating partner MOL approved the release of that number in July 2013.

The Recovery Factor was considered by GKP to be in the 20% to 35% range, something like that. Such a figure was broadly in line with international averages. Testing suggested that the Jurassic reservoir was showing dual-Porosity responses, which means that both the matrix and the fractures were releasing oil. The fractures were extensive, with a network of small cracks as well as millimetre- to centimetre-scale dissolution slots, where the cracks had been opened-up by natural acidic processes. GKP currently confirm a dual-Porosity system, and GKP have described the Jurassic as a gas-drive system. As the Jurassic matrix releases oil into the lower-pressure producing zones some of the dissolved gas comes out of solution and that provides natural reservoir drive.

The GKP expectation in 2012-13 was that the Jurassic alone would potentially produce 440,000 bopd. That sort of volume would be super major territory. In his 2010 video interview with Proactive Investors shortly before Excalibur launched their ultimately ridiculed claim for 30% of the Shaikan asset, John Gerstenlauer made it pretty clear that the sale of GKP was the strategic intention, though he said the company would continue to operate as if it was going to carry on as operator. There had already been takeover rumours in the media at that point.

The KRG approved a Field Development Plan, though JG publicly said there was a second FDP which described what would potentially happen if GKP were sold to a supermajor etc. It is possible that Spencer Freeman may have seen or been told something of that more ambitious FDP, because he alluded to it in one of his tweets before being silenced by Memery Crystal in the High Court with his tweets being deleted. Most of his tweets were saved. GKP, MOL and the KRG agreed to move forward with the more modest FDP and GKP decided to borrow the money to find the production facilities rather than to issue equity and dilute the shareholders. That decision was not opposed by the shareholders at the time, it seemed the sensible thing to do.

Takeover rumours continued, and Harvey Rands of Memery Crystal had told Alex Panayides of Clifford Chance (who were acting for Excalibur Ventures) around 21 February 2012 about a massive Trip to China by GKP and its lawyers etc. which would be taking place in March 2012. Details of some of what HR told AP and Simon Picken QC can be found in the official Court transcript of the procedural hearing at which it was raised. Unsurprisingly perhaps, AP and share price were then better able to obtain the Trial funding for Excalibur presumably because the corporate Trip to China had been exposed? The revelation by HR concerning that Trip confirmed something of what Mark Leftly had published on 18 December 2011 in The Independent on Sunday.

Going back a step, the share price had risen in early 2012, from a broadly established level of maybe 190p, to something above double that price. But it is now apparent that a number of persons including Harvey Rands, Todd Kozel and John Gerstenlauer had known about the Trip to China when the share price rose. That rise did not take place when Mark Leftly published his article: MikeyAdmin gave an analysis of that on iii not long afterwards and what he said is supported by evidence when one is looking back at the situation. Broadly, GKP was valued at that time at something around £1.5 billion, exceluding the early-2012 rise.

So GKP was funded-up for the so-called Phase Zero which aimed at some 40,000 bopd from Shaikan. There was argument about Corporate Goverance; there was a suggestion in June 2013 that this Governance move was really to get new independent figures for the Shaikan volumetrics, because the existing figures were considered to be too closely associated with TK. Fresh figures would, it was suggested, increase confidence in the asset and hence lead to a better ultimate price. But the Corporate Governance issue was publicly presented as something to do with TK's remuneration.

So the key issues were (a) defeating Excalibur, so as to get clean title, (b) establishing c. 40,000 bopd at Shaikan and (c) what Shaikan was worth in an M&A deal. This is why, if one looks at what the broker analysts were saying at the time, GKP was seen as very valuable.

It took a lot longer to deal with Excalibur than had been expected. It was three years from the issue of the Claim in December 2010 to the award by Justice Clarke of clean title with no appeal on 13 December 2013. The Excalibur issue delayed the intended move to the Main Market.

When the move to the Main Market finally came, the Good Corporate Governance board with Simon Murray as the Chairman was in place. SM invested significantly in GKP shares and so did John Bell, both doing so shortly before clean title with no appeal was awarded by Justice Clarke. They clearly thought in late 2013 that GKP was a good investment.

What happened next contained eight main components:

(a) Shaikan operations proceeded successfully, with the 40,000 bopd facilities being completed and the Jurassic reservoir being brought onto commercial production as planned;

(b) something prevented GKP selling their 20% operating stake in the adjacent Akri-Bijeel oilfield. It is unclear what that was, although it is possible that potential purchasers saw some disappointing Akri-Bijeel results which were not in line with earlier positive expectations;

(c) the non-sale of the Akri-Bijeel stake left GKP with some $350 million to $500 million less cash than expected, that being the amount they had publicly anticipated receiving from the sale;

(d) the non-sale of the Akri- Bijeel stake led to the BER issue and certain hedge funds getting their Notes secure against the Shaikan asset. This apparently put GKP into a weak negotiating position in 2015-16 regarding the Restructuring;

(e) the sudden rise of ISIS created massive negativity regarding the region;

(f) the decision of the Saudis to increase their market share of world oil greatly reduced the oil price and GKP's income;

(g) the KRG were unable to pay the back-costs owed to GKP, though they did make some inroads into the arrears and:

(h) ERC Equipoise published a Competent Person's Report for Shaikan which was described by GKP as a "baseline", "conservative" and "as seen through the steely gaze of auditors". These so-called baseline numbers were lower than had been anticipated by the market, but they were still very substantial and Shaikan was described by Genel's Exploration Director as "second only to Kirkuk". ERCE had included quite considerable upside in the CPR and once the market had digested the CPR numbers, the negative effect upon the share price was not particularly large.

So when Jon Ferrier joined GKP in June 2015 the share price was, in the circumstances, tolerable. JF appeared optimistic, and he was certainly positive about the revised CPR which was published about three months after he joined. By the time of the Restructuring announcement in July 2016 TK had been gone as the CEO for more than a year and had been gone as Chairman for fully two years. There was a new board in place with a new Chairman, a new CEO, a new CFO and new NEDs.

The Restructuring reduced the existing equity stake to 5% but by participating in the Open Offer at the 20-for-9 entitlement level without going for an oversubscription allocation, that increased to 14.5%. Those qualifying shareholders who successfully oversubscribed ended up with more than that; it varies from case to case, but those who oversubscribed and who also bought more shares at the low prices actually experienced far less dilution than might appear to be the case. Though putting in more money was not something that everyone could, or would, do. Was the Restructuring handled professionally? No, because it was leaked. But the end result is that GKP has no net debt.

With ISIS now effectively removed from the vicinity, one of the key negatives is gone. But the oil price is still an issue. World oil consumption is running at more than ten times the current discovery level, and has never been higher. The 100 million bopd consumption level is now close. GKP, MOL and the KRG are close to announcing the step-up plans to 55,000 bopd at Shaikan. The c. 850,000 bopd capacity 36-inch Feeder Pipeline which runs from Shaikan to the main export pipeline is now starting to carry oil from Atrush. Perhaps JF will do what he has said he would do, but which he hasn't so far done: restart communication with shareholders. And there are signs of increasing corporate activity involving the Kurdistan oil sector.

The ultimate commercial value of Shaikan involves three key factors: (a) the oil price, (b) the level of Reserves and Resources and (c) the potential level of production with the associated capex and opex figures per flowing barrel.

[mcfly02] 16/3/2021 21:14

But I thought you had been silenced Bigdog 😂

Can't wait to see the egg on certain faces on here and elsewhere 😂

[nestoframpers] 16/3/2021 21:06

I hope Asher writes a book on GKP. Probably not worth the aggro though, published posthumously maybe.

[sbb1x] 16/3/2021 20:41

#API#Crude -1.000M VS Est.+2.715M#Gasoline -0.926M VS Est.-3.134M#Distillate +0.904M VS Est.-3.470M#OOTT #OIL $CL_F

[nufc9] 16/3/2021 20:33

LOOOL Why don’t you give Blackrock a call and let them know your findings..... then report back to us and tell us how many seconds it took before they slammed the phone down on you LOOL

[bigdog5] 16/3/2021 20:20

Take note morons just trying to assist as you will come to understand in the coming weeks.

Hi everyone, how's the biggest con since Eners doing:-)

I just thought I'd stop by and let you know I've been doing a lot of research and the stuff I've turned up just adds more support to my opinion that the Kozel barrels are complete BS.

Then when certain well known individuals are "linked" together it adds even more to my beliefs.

That got me thinking about why you delusional morons keep referring to the reports of years ago which you desperately maintain are the proof notwithstanding not a single barrels has been added to any of the four CPR's.

Also we all saw recently the company announced a huge downgrade to 2P reserves. Then last week Forza announced a massive 40% downgrade to their reserves. That's of course in addition to the ones that Genel were forced to announce a few years ago.

Also none of the fabled 45 billion that the hosts regularly refer to have been found in eleven years.

All that got me wondering whether it would have been possible for the data that was provided to the "experts" who then opined on the numbers could have been "mislead" by said data. I was thinking about the film "Trading places" one of my absolute favourites and was wondering if something similar could have happened.

I won't tell you what I found out today on the jolly old internet but oh boy its massive and very much supports my views and opinions:-)

I did say a short time ago more support for my views would be arriving "in the coming weeks" and it sure will be.

Aimvho of course.

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 20:13

The paid bashers on LSE are hystericalBIGGEST BUY SIGNAL EVER LOL

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 20:13

BLACK ROCK now have ACQUIRED 5.43% over 11,400,000 and INCREASING literally by the week having mugged OVER 2,000,000 from thick retail in FEBRUARY ALONE , as the most OBVIOUS TAKEOVER ever is IMMINENTFollow the REAL MONEY :) meanwhile plenty of laughs and entertainment available here from the orchestrated bashers There's plenty to choose from :)

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 20:12

PRE TAKEOVER STAKEBUILDING is the process by which bidders seek to build up a stake in a target company through purchases of shares before or during a takeover offer, with the objective of increasing the likelihood of success of a takeover offer.CNPC have been STAKEBUILDING for 2 years

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 20:12

Phew he's back,17 posts to goWhat a body of work...lolPatriotic Irishman tiddly 1726+++sneersKitless Highlander 1394 ... lightweight lolMcFly just broken a mere 3,057++ lololDavros just the 3,841 negative posts so far lolBut the big Banana =BIGDOG Closing in on 26,000 !!!!!Will he get there before the Sale RNS?25,982 posts from the BIGDOG,BLACK ROCK now have acquired 5.43% over 11,400,000 and increasing,Is it a pile of xcz&£, because >>>33,000 ++ negative posts by orchestrated con avatars says so ?Or do you follow the REAL MONEY ?LOL

[bigdog5] 16/3/2021 20:11

Hey highlander7, you made a comment about me "never having an argument". You is in for such a shock its going to be real amusing.

Also you tried to con your fellow morons here with your opinion that if the Kozel barrels aren't there (they ain't) all manner of people would have served up litigation by now. I gave you some reasons at that time as to why you're wrong on that topic just like you are on every other topic you post.

But I will try and add to my previous reasons with words that you may just be able to grasp and then join up the dots. One should never bite the hands that feed one. Don't take a saw to the branch one sits on.

Happy to help you clueless morons as always:-)

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 20:02

The paid bashers on LSE are hystericalBIGGEST BUY SIGNAL EVER LOL

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 20:02

BLACK ROCK now have ACQUIRED 5.43% over 11,400,000 and INCREASING literally by the week having mugged OVER 2,000,000 from thick retail in FEBRUARY ALONE , as the most OBVIOUS TAKEOVER ever is IMMINENTFollow the REAL MONEY :) meanwhile plenty of laughs and entertainment available here from the orchestrated bashers There's plenty to choose from :)

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 20:01

PRE TAKEOVER STAKEBUILDING is the process by which bidders seek to build up a stake in a target company through purchases of shares before or during a takeover offer, with the objective of increasing the likelihood of success of a takeover offer.CNPC have been STAKEBUILDING for 2 years

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 20:01

Phew he's back,18 posts to goWhat a body of work...lolPatriotic Irishman tiddly 1726+++sneersKitless Highlander 1394 ... lightweight lolMcFly just broken a mere 3,057++ lololDavros just the 3,841 negative posts so far lolBut the big Banana =BIGDOG Closing in on 26,000 !!!!!Will he get there before the Sale RNS?25,982 posts from the BIGDOG,BLACK ROCK now have acquired 5.43% over 11,400,000 and increasing,Is it a pile of xcz&£, because >>>33,000 ++ negative posts by orchestrated con avatars says so ?Or do you follow the REAL MONEY ?LOL

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 19:55

Phew he's backPatriotic Irishman tiddly 1726+++sneersKitless Highlander 1394 ... lightweight lolMcFly just broken a mere 3,057++ lololDavros just the 3,841 negative posts so far lolBut the big Banana =BIGDOG Closing in on 26,000 !!!!!Will he get there before the Sale RNS?25,981 posts from the BIGDOG,BLACK ROCK now have acquired 5.43% over 11,400,000 and increasing,Is it a pile of xcz&£, because >>>33,000 ++ negative posts by orchestrated con avatars says so ?Or do you follow the REAL MONEY ?LOL

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 19:52

PRE TAKEOVER STAKEBUILDING is the process by which bidders seek to build up a stake in a target company through purchases of shares before or during a takeover offer, with the objective of increasing the likelihood of success of a takeover offer.CNPC have been STAKEBUILDING for 2 years

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 19:52

BLACK ROCK now have ACQUIRED 5.43% over 11,400,000 and INCREASING literally by the week having mugged OVER 2,000,000 from thick retail in FEBRUARY ALONE , as the most OBVIOUS TAKEOVER ever is IMMINENTFollow the REAL MONEY :) meanwhile plenty of laughs and entertainment available here from the orchestrated bashers There's plenty to choose from :)

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 19:51

He's back !!???Lol

[bigdog5] 16/3/2021 19:49

Hi everyone, how's the biggest con since Eners doing:-)

I just thought I'd stop by and let you know I've been doing a lot of research and the stuff I've turned up just adds more support to my opinion that the Kozel barrels are complete BS.

Then when certain well known individuals are "linked" together it adds even more to my beliefs.

That got me thinking about why you delusional morons keep referring to the reports of years ago which you desperately maintain are the proof notwithstanding not a single barrels has been added to any of the four CPR's.

Also we all saw recently the company announced a huge downgrade to 2P reserves. Then last week Forza announced a massive 40% downgrade to their reserves. That's of course in addition to the ones that Genel were forced to announce a few years ago.

Also none of the fabled 45 billion that the hosts regularly refer to have been found in eleven years.

All that got me wondering whether it would have been possible for the data that was provided to the "experts" who then opined on the numbers could have been "mislead" by said data. I was thinking about the film "Trading places" one of my absolute favourites and was wondering if something similar could have happened.

I won't tell you what I found out today on the jolly old internet but oh boy its massive and very much supports my views and opinions:-)

I did say a short time ago more support for my views would be arriving "in the coming weeks" and it sure will be:-) Aimvho of course:-)

[cnpc_has_bought_gkp] 16/3/2021 19:46

BLACK ROCK now have ACQUIRED 5.43% over 11,400,000 and INCREASING literally by the week having mugged OVER 2,000,000 from thick retail in FEBRUARY ALONE , as the most OBVIOUS TAKEOVER ever is IMMINENTFollow the REAL MONEY :) meanwhile plenty of laughs and entertainment available here from the orchestrated bashers There's plenty to choose from :)