Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 24/2/2021 13:59

I thought I would post this again as its fact and not bs.

Gross Reserves

2016 2P 622m CPR
2018 2P 615m (March)
2018 2P 615m (June)
2019 2P 591m (May)
2020 2P 578m (Sept)
2021 2P 505m (Feb) Latest CPR

Massive decrease between Sept 2020 and latest CPR numbers in Feb 2021.
Even allowing for four months production of say 6m that is a huge downgrade to the Gross figures. So obviously they have adjusted the Jurassic numbers for a reason. Looks rather like its the problems encountered with the oil/water contact at the target depths at S12/S13. That has therefore shrunk the Jurassic materially. The evidence is all there.

Also if and when the 2nd amendment to the PSC is agreed the WI of 80% (costs 80%) will drop to 58% (costs 64%).

[mcfly02] 24/2/2021 13:51

BigDog 🐶😃

And just like clockwork, the 3 and then the 10 and quickly followed by the Habscam and Dave soon behind 😂😂😂

They don't even hide the fact they are doing it 😂😂😂

Paul & Dave show 😂🤡

[pensioner2] 24/2/2021 13:08

The spread's not normally this tight. Are they expecting a sudden jump?

[k4n4k] 24/2/2021 13:05

Bigdog5, the pedigree chump.

[sbb1x] 24/2/2021 12:48

26000 negative posts by the trader lol

[pensioner2] 24/2/2021 12:44

A flurry of buys going on. It looks as though that payment rns is now in the system. But will it beat expectations? Tune in tomorrow to see.

[habshan] 24/2/2021 12:40

"why is the amendment taking such a long time when the groundwork was done back in 2016."

It's no good Sarah. The nag's never going to run.

You're flogging a dead horse.

For there to be ANY deal both GKP and MOL have to be happy with it before they approve it.

As Sami has told you, all three parties including the MNR have agreed that the concept of value neutrality is fundamental to any agreement and that it must make commercial sense for GKP and MOL.

So if any deal is going to be at least value neutral and GKP aren't going to lose out by it then why are you getting yourself so stressed. Just leave it to the experts.

And as for the tripe about reserves, you can forget about that as well. We know what's there.

The development of the field is in it's infancy and you can't FORMALLY quantify what hasn't been drilled.

[bigdog5] 24/2/2021 12:22

Only 58% Paul and they're paying 80% of all the costs and the hosts are real happy for that to happen. Especially when the tax take is massive. Also its only 58% of production cos they don't own the oil. So it ain't their oil to sell innit:-)

Is the oil agreement having problems again?

Isn't it strange that Erbil won't hand over the oil for 12% of the Baghdad budget. What's their problem:-) One would think its an easy solution n'est ce pas:-)

[gkpinvestor] 24/2/2021 12:00

Gkpinvestor_loves_to_block_Paul_reincarnations.

[noreply1] 24/2/2021 11:48

Wow 505 million oil reserves. How much is that worth in pounds.Over 1 billion

[broadford bay] 24/2/2021 11:33

Good morning bigdog,

as long as the hidden shareholders continue to accept (promote?) this state of affairs, nothing will change.
The "Management" get paid - and rather well at that considering most of them don't even work every day at the office, or at the production sites.
The workers get paid - expats rather well, locals better than sheepherders anyway.
The retail holders can play the peaks and troughs almost as well as the big boys, another 15p divi should shut them up for a year or so.
The FCA aren't interested.

No top talent is interested in having their CV "tainted by association".

It's called a Gravy Train.

[cicero666] 24/2/2021 11:27

h7
and the KRG don't want to hand over all of the oil, mainly because they know how big Shaikan is, and how easy it is to pilfer from all wells.

[beernut] 24/2/2021 11:23

From Energy voice

OIL & GAS
Whispers of $100 oil return as crude shakes off Covid’s clasp
While oil’s dizzying collapse is still fresh for many traders, rumblings are starting to emerge that by the end of next year prices could once again top $100 a barrel.
by Bloomberg
24/02/2021, 10:56 am
© Shutterstock / huyangshuPost Thumbnail
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While oil’s dizzying collapse is still fresh for many traders, rumblings are starting to emerge that by the end of next year prices could once again top $100 a barrel.

Azerbaijan’s Socar Trading SA predicts global benchmark Brent could hit triple digits in the next 18 to 24 months, and Bank of America sees potential spikes above $100 over the next few years on improving fundamentals and global stimulus.

[beernut] 24/2/2021 11:16

Upbeat outlook in Iraqi Kurdistan
Oil and gas developers in the semi-autonomous region are looking forward to a year of rebound

Confidence is growing among producers developing fields in Iraqi Kurdistan that positive momentum will continue in 2021, as new drilling campaigns kick off during a continuing oil price uptick. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) improving the regularity of its payments for oil sales throughout second, third and fourth quarters of 2020 is one driver of this optimism. A year ago, Erbil deferred hundreds of millions of dollars of payments to operators for November 2019-February 2020 crude sales for at least nine months. “

[bigdog5] 24/2/2021 11:11

Stakeholders will need the oil price in the stratosphere to try and offset the massive downgrade to reserves.

[bigdog5] 24/2/2021 11:03

Gross Reserves

2016 2P 622m CPR
2018 2P 615m (March)
2018 2P 615m (June)
2019 2P 591m (May)
2020 2P 578m (Sept)
2021 2P 505m (Feb) Latest CPR

Massive decrease between Sept 2020 and latest CPR numbers in Feb 2021.
Even allowing for four months production of say 6m that is a huge downgrade to the Gross figures. So obviously they have adjusted the Jurassic numbers for a reason. Looks rather like its the problems encountered with the oil/water contact at the target depths at S12/S13. That has therefore shrunk the Jurassic materially. The evidence is all there.

Also if and when the 2nd amendment to the PSC is agreed the WI of 80% (costs 80%) will drop to 58% (costs 64%).

Perhaps the questions stakeholders should be asking themselves is why is the amendment taking such a long time when the groundwork was done back in 2016. Then there's the paying for 80% of everything. What they shouldn't be doing is getting excited about thinking they own 80% of any heavy oil because when push comes to shove they can only point at 58% and even then its the hosts oil so its really all about the production numbers. Which are rather pathetic after spending around $2b and 11 years in achieving them imho.

Would it fair to suggest that the hosts are playing the game rather well and allowing the company to pay 80% of all costs and then at such a time that suits them will dilute them down to 58%? Does the history with negotiations with the hosts suggest that the company will come out with a "neutral" arrangement or will it be as usual a much better deal for the owners of the heavy oil?

Just a mull?

[highlander7] 24/2/2021 10:50

In other words Maliki knows he is under investigation and is going to get found out re the $billions he stole and wants to do a deal.

IMO