Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 09/2/2019 15:39

You are exactly right, div 23p I bet they fall further than 23p when xd. GSK you know no dividend growth 80p for years to come it seems. Corporate bond for me.

[anhar] 09/2/2019 13:51

zicopele: ...Can't figure out the benefits of a dividend myself. The price will fall in line with declared dividend on ex div date.

It's about paying a reasonably certain and regular income which is what a large number of longer term investors want from their shares for the same reason that people invest in bonds to earn interest or let property etc. The risks to that income vary according to the source but the principle is the same.

Trying to make a return from trading capital is, in contrast, hugely more risky and unpredictable.

As for the price fall at xd, that is theoretically true though there are many other forces on share prices all the time so it often isn't that obvious as TM says. Longer than a day or so it isn't true at all because a business isn't static, it continues to deliver profits and cash flow all the time. If the share price was permanently affected by div payments, it would sink to zero after repeated divs over time!

[tradermichael] 08/2/2019 15:45

Not always, and always not for long if it does

[zicopele] 08/2/2019 15:41

Yeah....you really shill the dividend.

Can't figure out the benefits of a dividend myself. The price will fall in line with declared dividend on ex div date.

[montyhedge] 08/2/2019 15:34

Covered bear, I sold mine nice profit I don't want the dividend when ex div I will buy back below 1500p. Of course income punters want the dividend.

[grahamite2] 08/2/2019 15:19

Doesn't go XD for a fortnight yet.

[zicopele] 08/2/2019 15:15

You still short Monty?

[montyhedge] 08/2/2019 15:14

Of course everyone wants the 23p dividend, ex div shortly.

[badtime] 08/2/2019 12:49

Everyone? Hardly

[alphorn] 08/2/2019 11:55

TM - of course, it is all a question of when to jump aboard.

For example, the big sector study around 2000 was fatally flawed when you analysed it closely. I travelled the share price down from its highs at that time. Not always one way which I think you and I have discussed previously.

The reorganisation will IMO be beneficial in time as the group has probably become too big to manage.

[zicopele] 08/2/2019 11:53

Monty..I have a lot of respect for you. You are encouraging everyone to buy while you want to sell.

I love these bulletin boards. Everyone has a stated agenda at odds with their true position.

[tradermichael] 08/2/2019 11:36

#154 - Alphorn:

Surely 'jam tomorrow' is what the stock market is all about (especially for drugs, miners and oilers). If you waited till it was jam today, you'd pay a great deal higher price …… ;0)

[alphorn] 08/2/2019 11:31

DrB - the two deals I mention have yet to hit published numbers as post 31.12.2018.

[dr biotech] 08/2/2019 11:21

Most of the debt increase is for the buyout of the JV from Novartis. I guess this is offset by the increased earnings from owning the remainder. Presumably a lot of this debt will be attached to the consumer healthcare division if/once it is spun off.

[alphorn] 08/2/2019 10:38

I am surprised that no one has commented on #154.

The Q1/2 impact of the recent deals (post 2018 balance sheet) will be huge on GSK's gearing. Perhaps once the next numbers come out the analysts will wake up.

[montyhedge] 08/2/2019 10:33

I see 1475p, when they go ex div.

[zicopele] 08/2/2019 09:00

You guys shorting now at 1560?

[montyhedge] 07/2/2019 19:50

Yes short at 1550p seems to work.

[romeike] 07/2/2019 18:18

I've been able to grab a bit of extra pocket money by putting a small short on GSK every time it goes up a decent amount during the day because it literally always goes down by end of day every single time without fail.

People talking about debt being a concern simply don't understand what is going to happen re: the consumer unit. It's an excellent strategy.

[alphorn] 07/2/2019 18:15

Tesaro deal plus Merck for Q1 2019 don't forget which will hit cash/debt.

I am out for now - all this new stuff is jam tomorrow.

[montyhedge] 07/2/2019 16:43

This may sound stupid, but I remember when Fred Goodwin RBS doing massive deals with debt, you can expand to quickly it all went pear shaped, I hope GSK CEO who is good,sees our these mergers and acquisitions pan out, before anymore.

[zicopele] 07/2/2019 15:54

The increased debt is a concern.

GSK is no bond. risk of dividend cut given the very significant increase in debt.

Basically the dividend for the last two years funded by debt increase.

This is unsustainable.

[losos] 07/2/2019 15:15

Monty - "watch the last hour of trade before close, thats when the funds come in."

I'm just a simple PI but I have wondered about last hour trades. Can you expand please ? What is the rational behind the 'funds' pilling in during last hour trading. Just interested, thanks :-)