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Investor discussions surrounding GSK (GSK plc) from February 4 to February 11, 2025, indicated a positive shift in sentiment following a better-than-expected fourth-quarter report and an optimistic revenue forecast. The company guided for revenue growth of up to 5% in 2025 and projected core operating profit growth of 6-8%. This performance increased investor confidence, with some members noting a significant upward trend in share prices despite concerns about ongoing litigation issues. One user highlighted that "the chart is certainly heading in the right direction," reflecting optimism in the stock's recent momentum.
However, discussions were tempered by concerns over a new class-action lawsuit alleging securities fraud, which was perceived as potential short-term volatility for GSK shares. Investors speculated on the motivations behind the lawsuit, with one remarking that the actions appeared to be "common in the US and usually come to nothing." Nevertheless, multiple analysts raised their target prices for GSK, with Bernstein setting a target of 2355p and Deutsche Bank increasing theirs to 1450p, indicating robust analyst support for the stock's future valuation. Overall, there was a blend of cautious optimism among investors about GSK’s growth prospects, driven by clinical advancements and improving financial performance, along with ongoing apprehension toward external legal pressures.
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GSK PLC reported a strong financial performance for 2024, with total sales reaching £31.4 billion, reflecting a 3% increase at actual exchange rates (AER) and a 7% increase at constant exchange rates (CER). The company experienced robust growth in its Specialty Medicines division, which saw sales surge by 19%, including significant increases in oncology (98%) and HIV (13%). Despite these positives, the Vaccines division faced challenges, with a 4% decline in sales, notably driven by a steep 51% decrease in sales for Arexvy. Overall, while GSK's core operating profit and earnings per share (EPS) showed promising gains of 11% and 10% respectively, total operating profit and EPS were negatively impacted by a substantial £1.8 billion charge related to Zantac litigation.
In a notable move, GSK raised its long-term sales guidance and announced a £2 billion share buyback, indicating confidence in its future growth trajectory. The positive outlook was further supported by a substantial cash generation from operations amounting to £8 billion and free cash flow of £3 billion. However, concerns linger regarding the performance of GSK's Vaccines division, particularly in the U.S. market, where geopolitical factors could impact revenue growth. Overall, GSK's strategic focus on Specialty Medicines and its commitment to investing in research and development appear to position the company favorably for sustained growth despite the challenges ahead.
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Earlier this month, authorities in China arrested five AstraZeneca (AZN) employees as part of an investigation into data privacy violations and imports of unlicensed medications.The group acknowledged the arrests in a statement, but declined to offer any further information. While there's no indication the legal action could impact sales, investors are bound to view these developments as evidence of escalating tensions between western drugmakers and the Chinese state.This month, US legislators also backed a bill that limits American companies from doing business with Chinese Communist Party-owned entities, which can be key links in the supply chain. Until recently, the pharmaceutical industry remained relatively insulated from the simmering trade war between China and the US. According to the Atlantic Council, a think tank, US imports of China-made medicines grew nearly 500 per cent from $2.1bn (£1.6bn) to $10.3bn between 2020 and 2022. The same can't be said for tariff-hit electric vehicles or aerospace components. However, suspicion is growing on the part of the US and its European allies, and measures to reduce or restrict Chinese pharmaceutical imports are gaining momentum. Whether this will ultimately hobble collaboration and innovation is an important question, particularly for AstraZeneca. R&D advantagesChina is increasingly important to the pharma giant and not just because of its sizeable consumer market. "We also intend to leverage our Chinese presence for cell therapy," chief executive Pascal Soriot told analysts at a May investor day. "In the early phase of clinical development, you can move much faster than anywhere else in the world." The country's government began reforming its drug approvals process in 2015, with the aim of fast-tracking the development of innovative medicines. Western pharmaceutical groups have taken note of the country's supportive regulatory regime and moved to acquire smaller biotech companies with promising pipelines. Early this year, AstraZeneca completed its $1.2bn buyout of Shanghai-based Gracell Biotechnologies, a developer of cell therapies for cancer and autoimmune diseases. Switzerland's Novartis (CH:NOVN) picked up kidney disease specialist SanReno, also based in Shanghai, at around the same time.However, both companies have also had to take steps to safeguard their China operations from the impact of ongoing trade tensions with the US. Soriot told journalists on the sidelines of AstraZeneca's investor day that the firm was taking steps to build a China-only supply chain to get ahead of any future disruptions. Meanwhile, Novartis has been reviewing its relationships with China-based manufacturing and contract research partners in case US lawmakers bar them from working together. Biosecurity concernsLast week, the House of Representatives passed the so-called Biosecure Act by 306 to 81 votes. The bill effectively prohibits US federal agencies from ordering products with "biotechnology companies of concern" in the supply chain meaning those deemed to pose a threat to national security. Five firms with alleged ties to the Chinese Communist Party, including widely-used manufacturer WuXi AppTec, have been named in the bill, which would need to pass in the Senate to become law. It has also been reported that weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly (US:LLY) is seeking alternative suppliers in case its China operations are stalled. The company, along with many other US and EU drugmakers, relies on WuXi to make key ingredients for its products. Despite this hawkish turn, it appears China is still keen to license and distribute innovative drugs made by European companies. GSK (GSK) announced last week that the country's Centre for Drug Evaluation had granted breakthrough therapy status to Blenrep and BorDex, a combination designed to target drug-resistant blood cancer. This means the medicines will enjoy an expedited approval process because studies have shown they may be more effective than available alternatives.GSK's presence in China is much smaller than AstraZeneca's largely because a court found its sales staff had been bribing doctors to prescribe its medicines in 2014. The scandal resulted in a fine of £300mn and a prison sentence for the firm's former head of Chinese operations. However, relations have improved in recent years, with the company inking a $3bn deal with domestic biotech Zhifei for distribution of its shingles vaccine in late 2023. It seems legal issues and import restrictions may not fully restrict the global trade in medical innovations. |
Amazing how Emma has managed to cling on through this shambles |
Yes, $1.33 is taking its toll. |
Strong £ doing the damage here and elsewhere creating a top up opportunity |
Should think that most of potential 'bad news' is priced in by now. A successful Delaware defence should see the price approach 2200p |
Unless the appeal in Delaware is unsuccessful, there's no other reason for that scenario to pass. |
Not so long ago GSK was down to 12 pounds, I wonder if we shall see that scenario again let us wait and see . |
Disastrous ! |
Quite a big markdown today which is not macro or sectoral. Hopefully not the beginning of a downtrend. Have to say that news of settling 2 cases vs 80000+ left can be taken as a negative. |
No, I think its less: |
Only another 153000 to go-that's the problem. |
2 more Zantac settlements. |
GSK Announces Positive Topline Data on Co-Administration of AREXVY and SHINGRIXSource: Business WireTrial met primary endpoint, non-inferior immune response for both vaccines when co-administered compared with separate administrationCo-adm |
Short term it will head up and down with the market. Longer term I expect them to significantly outperform the market |
Same old GSK! |
Filtered for telling the truth! |
Spoole filtered for deramping... |
Heading back to the 1500s |
Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin) combinations in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma accepted for regulatory review in Japan |
You must be confident of a few more quid on this if you're in at this price. I am too.. eventually! |
IN @ 1631.39 ..... ;o) |
Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin) in combination receives Breakthrough Therapy Designation in China for treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. |
GSK announced positive results from a phase two trial of its mRNA-based seasonal flu vaccine on Thursday, showing improved immune responses against A and B strains in both younger and older adults compared to the standard of care. The FTSE 100 pharmaceuticals giant said the vaccine demonstrated strong antibody levels and an acceptable safety profile across all tested formulations. Based on the findings, GSK said it now planned to advance the vaccine program to phase three clinical trials. |
Type | Ordinary Share |
Share ISIN | GB00BN7SWP63 |
Sector | Pharmaceutical Preparations |
Bid Price | 1,462.50 |
Offer Price | 1,463.50 |
Open | 1,463.00 |
Shares Traded | 166,459 |
Last Trade | 08:34:51 |
Low - High | 1,462.00 - 1,468.50 |
Turnover | 30.33B |
Profit | 4.93B |
EPS - Basic | 1.1889 |
PE Ratio | 12.33 |
Market Cap | 60.75B |
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