Gresham Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[gottafly] 20/7/2018 06:26

DavROs I see your a professional trader would kindly share your view on GHT's outlook.

[davr0s] 19/7/2018 21:28

You'll eventually go broke averaging down - as some don't come back up

[jadeticl3] 19/7/2018 16:35

I bought significantly more when they fell to 170p recently.(I like this company most of the time!). Today I decided to buy more if they fell to 157p, but by the time I noted they were for sale at this price and tried to buy at that price I was informed that they had risen to 160p so I held off. I am still a buyer at these prices.
Like DD I am hoping that the results statement will inform us that some deals, expected to fall within the 17/18 year, but did not, have now been completed and will therefore be swelling the 18/19 results.

[double double] 19/7/2018 16:14

I recall around 150p being a huge barrier but when such barriers are broken they can become support. Lets see if this sticks here.

[journeysend] 19/7/2018 07:15

The fall happened in the afternoon a late reaction.Hopefully company will announce those deals that are almost there and not sit on them like they usually do.

[jadeticl3] 19/7/2018 07:12

Is there some hidden message in this announcement? Were some folk expecting some comment on latest news rather than just a bald statement? This appears to be a very large drop in share price coincident with this announcement. Puzzled!

[double double] 18/7/2018 15:03

Someone is nervous ahead of results on 24 July 2018.

Technically it is way oversold.

[richjp] 11/7/2018 16:21

Somewhat to my surprise Chris Errington attended the AGM on 10th May. When I spoke to him he pointed out that he was still a shareholder, although I expect that he was primarily there on behalf of Kestrel.

[bomber13] 10/7/2018 18:23

There are two important points worth considering on today's news -

1) Kestrel has been a very long-term supporter of Gresham , and not just as a shareholder . Two of its partners are X board members of Gresham , one as the former senior NED , Max Royde , and the other as the former CEO & FD , Chris Errington .

2) Over many years , and without selling one share , Kestrel had built up a holding of 15.1% of Gresham by May , 2017 , which it then started to sell down once the shareprice had got above 180p . One year later , in May 2018 , its holding had gone from 15.1% to 11.8% .

So , not only is a potentially large seller now a buyer for the first time since May 2017 , but they have proved over more than a decade that they know what they are doing .

[richjp] 10/7/2018 14:37

I agree it’s good to see Kestrel buying back in.

I think the issue at the moment is that when they announce the half year results on 24th July the pre tax profit will look pretty grim. We know that revenue will be down by 5%. For H1 last year the revenue was £9.87M so that will be a reduction of just under £0.5MH. Last year the pretax profit, the only profit figure that matters to me, was £1.1M so the revenue reduction will hit that considerably. On top of that we know they have been recruiting some pretty expensive sales and marketing people so that will hit the bottom line as well. I am all in favour of hiring the best people however there is an up front expense before they become productive.

Unless they come up with some creative accounting, which I hope they do not as it will not fool many, the pre tax profit will not look good.

In the longer term I do not think it should matter, as long as they catch up in H2 and I think it will actually be better for all when that pre tax figure is out in the open. Once the uncertainty is removed the share price might start to recover.

[gottafly] 10/7/2018 10:27

Yes seems they have acquired over 300k shares so from being a regular seller they are now a buyer. It would seem they believe the share price is on the cheap side and that the management confidence for a recovery in H2 - back to figures largely in line with expectations - will happen.

So just a blip in the road.

As always DYOR.

[double double] 10/7/2018 08:00

Good to see kestrel adding on the dip.

[richjp] 05/7/2018 18:54

The original TechMarketView report (see post 7081) refers to a "hole" of £2M in revenue.

That is incorrect and as I think TechMarketView can be quite influential, I emailed the writer. He has now amended yesterday's article to £1M as you will see if you go onto their website, although I would have preferred it if they had made a separate announcement regarding the correction.

I don't know if the correction will do much, but I think that every little helps.

[barnesian] 05/7/2018 12:22

Something up with the trading stats? Your purchase of 2920 shares for 170p each has bid 170p, offer 173p, which is why is it classified as a sell.

It is surprising, under so much reported selling pressure, that the price is holding at 168/173. Very strange, particularly with your purchase. How many more are being misreported?

EDIT: RNS at 11:03.

"Second Price Monitoring Extension

A second and final Price Monitoring Extension has been activated in this security. The auction call period is extended in this security for a further 5 minutes.

Following the first price monitoring extension this security would still have executed more than a pre-determined percentage above or below the price of the most recent automated execution today. London Stock Exchange electronic order book users have a final opportunity to review the prices and sizes of orders entered in this security prior to the auction execution."

I'm not sure what this means but perhaps it is an explanation.

[jadeticl3] 05/7/2018 11:52

I agree with what richjp says. In fact I felt that this was a hiccup, although initially I was shocked, and that in a years time the current price will look cheap. Consequently, I invested another £5000 at 170p. A further surprise was to see that ALL today’s transactions were listed as sells, INCLUDING MY 2920 BUY.

[richjp] 05/7/2018 11:08

Obviously yesterday was not what we were expecting, particularly as the recent AGM statement a few weeks ago was encouraging. No matter how genuine the reasons and how well the announcement is presented, it is still a profit warning and the market has reacted accordingly.

I have been saying for ages, although it is not a popular viewpoint with some, that this is not a business that can be scaled up rapidly. The sales cycles are long and the decision making process in big organisations is complex. That is why things can slip and for a company the size of GHT a few delays can have a significant impact. I don’t think it has anything to do with a loss of focus as someone else has said.

I am pleased that they say that “a number of material deals are at an advanced stage” which suggests they should be closed shortly.

The acquisition sounds good although clearly only time will tell. They have been talking about acquisitions for over a year, so I am pleased that they have taken their time in finding what they see as the right opportunity. I find it also encouraging that a large part of the initial consideration will be made with cash, suggesting to me that they are still confident about their future cash generating capabilities.

[valhamos] 04/7/2018 14:26

B2 customers/case studies look impressive with a good list of banks, asset managers and corporates (including Easyjet)

[double double] 04/7/2018 12:02

Cantor pt 250p held
N1SINGER forecasts adjusted eps by -0.33p for 2018 could be lost in the roudings tbh

[4-10] 04/7/2018 11:30

UKHotViews from TechMarketView LLP
Richard Holways firm

resham Technologies, the specialist provider of real-time transaction control and enterprise integrity solutions, expects that revenue for H1 FY 2018 will be down 5% yoy. The company has come a long way over the last five years and just three months ago looked set for substantial further growth in revenue and profit. This latest trading update therefore comes as quite a surprise.

Gresham appears to have been hit by a double whammy. Sales of the Clareti Transaction Control solution, the company's primary growth engine which represents c.50% of the overall business, will rise by only 12% for the six months to 30 June 2018. This marks a significant drop in pace when compared to the 40+% revenue increases achieved in each of the last three years. In parallel, lower than expected bookings by Gresham's Australian business have driven down first half turnover from its other operations by 21%. This has created a £2+m hole that the weakened Clareti performance is unable to fill.

On a more positive note, Gresham has announced that it is to acquire Luxembourg-based bank-to-corporate integration and cash management software specialist B2 Group S.a.R.L. Gresham will pay a total consideration of up to €8.5m for the company and expects the deal to be earnings enhancing in its first full financial year. The purchase of B2 Group will add c.€1.4m of annualised recurring revenue to the Gresham's top line. It will also both bring 15 new customers to the client roster and strengthen the company's position within the larger cash management and payments solutions markets.

Despite the H1 setback, Gresham management remains confident regarding the outlook and has left full year adjusted EBITDA guidance unaltered. The company believes that the second half will see both Clareti momentum restored and bookings bounce back in the wider business. It will need to be right on both accounts if it is to get back on the growth track.

[miti 1000] 04/7/2018 10:57

lol sure, hpcg.

[double double] 04/7/2018 10:52

Oh darn... i so wish i had funds to buy more. Not ramping this but i can see the bigger picture. Gresham have been very consertive lately but todays update about second half is very positive.

And the share price is recovering...

[hpcg] 04/7/2018 10:47

Terrible update - I was long earlier in the year, but now short. Not even revenue growth so the multiple is completely unjustified. I see this dropping back to a cash adjusted 15x and even that is generous if we get a correction or bear market. That makes the market cap 71 million. I can't think why anyone would buy in for more than that.

[valhamos] 04/7/2018 09:37

Added. Not too fussed about short term timing issues on winning contracts. The B2 acquisition looks interesting at first glance.

[barnesian] 04/7/2018 08:49

On 23 May I wrote: "This seems to me to be a very capable company, with competent management and with many platform and industry opportunities. It has successfully integrated C24, has cash in the bank and it wouldn't surprise me if they go for more acquisitions." [They have]

"I think the half year earnings release in late July will beat expectations as I suspect they manage financial expectations in order to surprise on the upside." [I was dead wrong!!]

I don't like the smell of this. It has hit my stop loss so I am out at 172.5p.
For the sake of holders, I hope I am wrong.

[gottafly] 04/7/2018 08:43

amt

I don't expect a 'low out second half' but GHT will do enough to bring the numbers largely back on trck - adjusted EBITDA at the full year is
expected to be broadly in-line with expectations.

As DD says it is 2019 that we should be focused on especially now that the B2 Group is part of the equation.