Gresham Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[richjp] 03/1/2015 17:22

schytalk, you are making it sound like a personal grudge. You have made your point many times, so why not give it a rest?

[jadeticl3] 03/1/2015 15:26

It is not my wish to protract this debate about the CEO (as I have no information about him) but if you rate him as poor Schytalk but rate the NExecs highly would you not expect them to do what is necessary? If they get rid of him you were right, and if they don't you were wrong, and either way we don't lose out.

[schytalk] 03/1/2015 10:46

4-10

I would say this about the CEO and his financial control. At the end of 2013 Gresham raised funds at 125p a little over 6 months later a profits warning and the share price halves! So who should the shareholders seek for responsibility in this regard. Further if Gresham searched for a new CEO then the current one would not get an interview, let alone be on the short list.

My view remains that the CEO is the weak link but hopefully covered off by the non execs. In my view Gresham will succeed despite the CEO. The way Gresham works I don't think they would remove him but how about appointing an executive chairman.

Onwards and upwards.

[amt] 30/12/2014 10:32

I don't think we can complain about the ceo judging by the performance of the company over the last few years. For me there is no downside other than a general stock market decline. Upside short term is spectacular given we were at 1.40 and next year has improved since then. We could be at an inflection point where client numbers double again in 2015.

[jadeticl3] 30/12/2014 10:17

Great! It looks as though we are solidly behind the view that 2015 is The year that Gresham comes of age. I too am a long-time holder (since 1999).
My target for end 2014 at this time last year was 100p, which looked all too easy in September, but now I am hoping for 175p by end 2015.

[4-10] 30/12/2014 09:20

Schytalk
I must agree with richjp I have been invested with Gresham for many interesting years way back since the T Read years and based on the performance of the current Ctable team I have confidence in the CEO. I am sorry you have not had good experiences working with him. I believe he has taken a more financial lead to manage the company through some very difficult times both within Gresham and clearly through the more troubled general financial times we have all experienced. Richjp is correct we don't need more change at the top we need to continue the growth and direction we have. One thing we all agree on is that 2015 should be a great year for Gresham.

4-10

[schytalk] 29/12/2014 18:58

richjp

If we are relying on the relationships (and ability) of the CEO then we are doomed. Gresham has many great people and these and the non execs will carry the business forwards. The CEO is last of the old guard and was only kept for continuity and I had the misfortune of working with him. An E&Y training and background is not what Gresham needs, he is a bean counter and at best a safe pair of hands.

Anyway lets agree to disagree and here is to a great Gresham 2015.

Onwards and Upwards.

[richjp] 29/12/2014 18:25

schytalk,

I agree with you about the timing of the trading update and it has not always been as early as it was this year. They may well try and delay it a while until they have something perhaps more significant to announce, in fact today's announcement may be just to keep us going because the trading update may be later. I would not expect an RNS at this time of year if the trading update were imminent. I would still however expect it to be no later than say the third week or maybe even fourth week of January or the market might get concerned.

You keep going on and on about the CEO and here I disagree with you. He has been largely responsible for the positives that have been achieved in recent years. As important, he will have key relationships with the customers who have already signed up for CTC who are vital firstly for the revenue from those clients to grow and secondly as references for future clients.

Changing the CEO destroys those relationships and as far as I am concerned sends out a panic message to the existing client base.

[schytalk] 29/12/2014 17:20

richjp

As always an interesting take on things. Whether the new win is significant we can only guess at this point, I still think that signing up in December and the fact that they are an NA client is significant. I think it shows an increased urgency from Gresham which is a good thing and much needed.

It will be good to see the trading update but I suspect that it will not necessarily be as timely as this year since I think the timing will be dependent upon the progress of major signings. Plus Gresham is keeping the market informed with regular news.

I don't think Gresham will make another cash call if they did do so then I think that the position of the CEO, of whom I am not a fan, would be untenable. I still believe there is serious upside for Gresham in 2015.

[richjp] 29/12/2014 16:33

Although this sounds like a great announcement I doubt if it is one of the deferred orders that they referred to in the profit warning or they would have said so. As with the other recent orders announced, no figures have been given. I suspect that some of the other recent orders would not have been made public were it not for the profit warning.

As 4-10 says this could b a significant win, however I wonder how long it will take the customer to roll the service out to their client base, which leads on to how long it will take for a decent revenue stream to build.

When the trading update comes, which was as early as 4th January this year, I will still want to see some reassurance on not only what the cash balance is at the year end, but also what it is likely to bee in six months time. I expect that the share price will remain a bit static until the market is confident that further funding will not be required.

[schytalk] 29/12/2014 15:14

Wh1spa

I don't agree about the cracking management but there are certainly many very good people in Gresham. To resolve the 'large bodies with dragging heels' needs a certain type of skill and experience which I think is somewhat missing at the very senior executive level, the non execs however are first class in my view.

Having a good broker is always a problem for a small company like Gresham. I am not saying that I am anti N+1 Singer but there does seem very little broker support, certainly that is needed to drive the share price upwards. However, I still think Gresham is a really good bet for 2015.

[wh1spa] 29/12/2014 14:54

Interesting posts , many thanks for them. I believe the management are doing a cracking job I just feel that the large "bodies" they are dealing with are notorious for dragging their heals. Not so sure about N+1 Singer as brokers however. (Btw Nasa (Nasstar) is another large holding for Kestrel , try buying any of those in any volume!)

[schytalk] 29/12/2014 12:22

Despite the volume the share price has not really moved today and suspect the two 100,000 orders were already in the system with an 85p trigger price. Well done amt for getting another 20k, generally Gresham shares are a thin market with so much of the stock locked up with the big players, plus of course it is generally a quiet time between Christmas and the New Year. I would expect the share price to move significantly in January especially as I am hopeful of another CTC win, I suspect that richjp can enlighten us more.

jadetecl3 agree with you the share price movement has been somewhat excessive and of course someone always makes money out of large share price movements. I think the board felt obliged to issue the profits warning, which I am sure would have been driven by the non execs, due to the slow pace of CTC signings. Yes the share price price fall has been overdone and I am sure some people (perhaps in the know) have made a tidy profit by it. That said, it is a wake up call to the Gresham executive management (who I have little faith in) to start delivering, so I think overall it is a good thing. The concern that I have is that with the share price at this level Gresham is clearly a take over target.

Onwards and upwards.

[4-10] 29/12/2014 11:52

What is very interesting on this announcement, if I have read it correctly, is that the customer is a "reseller" of some type who is integrating CTC into its own solution offering. Correct me if I am wrong but without going back through their website and other announcements I believe this is the first time Gresham are delivering CTC to end users through a value added reseller. If this is correct then their ability to address the end user market has just been multiplied on a massive scale. I assume that they will now look to other similar companies that can embed the CTC technology into their offering as well. If my assumptions are correct then this is an extremely strategic milestone announcement. It would be good to know who the new customer is as this would help us to understand the market size they address and therefore the potential business that can result from this deal in due course.

[jadeticl3] 29/12/2014 11:20

This is a full RNS (I think) so the impact should be significant. I will ask richjp my usual question, "do you consider this to be one of the big accounts they hoped to land before the year end?". If so, are we almost at the point we had hoped to be by end December? This raises the issue of why a share price drops violently with expectation of a poor result, but recovers almost reluctantly when the poor outcome is reversed?

[amt] 29/12/2014 10:46

Ok now bought another 20k at 85.5

[amt] 29/12/2014 09:47

Impossible to buy more than a couple of thousand

[mick bell] 29/12/2014 09:44

Big volume this morning, over 250k already today.
2 100k NT buys, interesting to see who is increasing
their holding and to what end?

[schytalk] 29/12/2014 09:00

amt

Very good news indeed and it is great to see one more announcement this year as I had hopped for in y previous post. Getting things finalized at this time of year is tough, so two wins in December in very positive.

I think the profits warning has really focused the minds of the Gresham management, it seems that it was a kick up the behind that was needed. I would expect more announcements soon, probably in January, and look forward to the share price moving back and beyond previous highs.

Onward and Upwards.

Think Gresham shareholders will have a very good 2015.

[amt] 29/12/2014 08:24

Another contract another new client. Fantastic final qtr looks on great shape for 2015. I can see this doubling next year "I am delighted to report this win in North America following the investment we made in the region during the year. We have now more than doubled CTC customer numbers during 2014, adding some excellent client names to our growing client list, including this North American customer which is a subsidiary of one of the largest financial institutions in the world."

[qantas] 18/12/2014 16:22

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[jadeticl3] 14/12/2014 15:22

Thanks Schytalk,
I do not disagree with your logic. I know an established player would give would-be buyers of CTC more assurance, so sales would come more quickly. But not necessarily more in the long term.

As far as crystallising shareholder value, again I think it is a timing issue. We shareholders would get our money sooner in a buyout, but not, in my view, more in the long run if CTC is as good as we think it is.

Another point is that 3 months ago the market valued GHT at about 140p based on expected orders/contacts. If those contracts materialise in say 4 months will we be back at a 140p price? If not, why not? Confidence? Doubt? Fear? If they attract a buyer with share price at 90p, and the offer is 140p is that a good price for us? I would not think so. All things considered my hoped-for scenario is a) those orders come in during the next 4 months and no offers of a buyout come in;b) the share price rises to 140p again, or higher now that such orders are real; c) CTC is now recognised as best in class and Gresham is seen as capable of selling and supporting CTC to big account customers.

Then we can all retire rich. Except for me as I am already retired (and rich)!

[schytalk] 14/12/2014 14:19

jadeticl3

Trade sales could be thought of as a black art but in my experience a good acquisition (and many are not as Gresham themselves found out) stems from the need to protect or enter into a new market space. If Gresham were to be acquired it would I am sure be by a more substantial player who could command more market presence and therefore accelerate the deployment of CTC.

A trade sale of course has two parties both of which want maximum value for their shareholders so striking a deal can be tough. At the current share price a trade sale in my view is a non starter, the last fund raising was at 125p so that has set a bench mark and any sale would need to be significantly above this for the board to recommend it.

What is interesting is that Gresham has three non execs who between them have extensive knowledge of the market Gresham is in and experience of trade sales. Whilst I am very positive about what Gresham can do with CTC I cannot help but think a major player would do that much better and so would pay a premium for Gresham.

As always DYOR but I believe a trade sale in the not too distant future could well be the best way to crystallize shareholder value.

[jadeticl3] 13/12/2014 19:36

Schytalk, how do you do your research on a topic like a trade sale?

Have you held this view for years, awaiting the profit stream to really kick in?

Would this not be more likely to happen now rather than wait for all to see that the profit streams are concrete, when surely the share price would be much higher?

[schytalk] 13/12/2014 08:42

amt

I like your positive view and agree things are moving in the right direction. I think your earnings forecast are optimistic but I would love to see it given the profit warning.

The key at the moment is to keep winning customers and building the recurring revenue base. The normal business profile would suggest that profits are thin, if any, at the start of the product cycle. The other thing that Gresham must, and I think will, do is keep control of costs such that cash is not an issue. I still think a trade sale is likely before the profit stream really kicks in.

As you say DYOR