Gresham Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[crazycanuck] 01/1/2017 15:28

Put me down for 1.75.

[double double] 01/1/2017 15:20

I am there as Bully.

[inforprofit] 01/1/2017 13:44

I bought in with the view that the share price was under valued and that it should have be sitting at 150p. I am very tempted to go for 200p but am shooting a little higher, 207p, the broker forecast plus 15%.

[gottafly] 01/1/2017 13:16

noble3r, hope your wrong about the crash and that does not mean that GHT would be badly affected, there are always winners even in a crash. I think we should put you down as 200p and assume, for now, the crash does not happen, I'm sure nobody else has factored in a stock market crash.

[noble3r] 01/1/2017 11:51

Put me down for 160p with a yr high of 200p and a yr low of 80p (market crash Q3 17)

[double double] 31/12/2016 16:34

Current forecast for 2017 is pe of 20, but I think it could trade at double as it is now so I am going to say 260p.

199p jadeticl3
199.50p shytalk/gottafly
200p richjp
260p double double
280p 4-10

[richjp] 31/12/2016 15:12

I think it's a tricky game trying to predict the share price When it shot up to 140P in 2013 I recall predictions of £3 by the end of 2014 and look where we are now.

I am more confident now that the revenue target for 2016 will be met for reasons that others have laid out recently. Whether they make their target for pre tax profit given that they are still having up front costs in expanding the sales and support network is another matter. As always the cash position I think will be critical.

As we have seen last week, when the price of a small cap stock moves it can do so very quickly. It can also move more quickly the other way as we saw a couple of years with the profit warning.

Here however is a possible scenario. I would expect a fair amount of resistance at 140P. A five year chart shows clearly why. Given a decent trading update I could see the share price moving up to 140P but no further. To get through that I think we need some really positive information when the full year end results are announced in March or April. If the share price can get through the 140P resistance I could see it moving quickly up to the broker target of 180P but then perhaps consolidating or dropping back.

I think around 200P by next year end is possible but they do have to demonstrate a more rapid rate of growth than has happened in the last few years.

[4-10] 31/12/2016 13:44

£2.80 but well before end of 2017 but what do I know I am sure we played this game way back years ago on this thread and I was wrong then.

[schytalk] 31/12/2016 11:01

jadeticl3, thanks for joining in the fun, hopefully others will do so.

Cantor are quoting 180p and a buy, so that should really be the bottom figure.

[jadeticl3] 31/12/2016 09:48

That is too high. I will go for 199!!

[gottafly] 30/12/2016 18:42

Ok guys, it is the end of 2016 and the share price is 129.50.

What do we think it will be in a years time?

Here is my prediction 199.50.

[double double] 30/12/2016 08:43

An analyst his salt would have not only met the company but also sought some reassurances about current expected figures especially when Cantor's report came out mid December. I am also confident they have won more contracts than those 2. Remember they dont announce all client wins, and at one point we thought they had stopped announcing any client wins. Perhaps they had let it slip those client wins to Ashton and have been forced to announcement them. But I have said before, only Gresham know why they released those announcements.

Gresham share price has always moved up or down ahead of good or bad results / trading announcements. So far its positive.

[gottafly] 30/12/2016 08:28

zipstuck, welcome to the thread, not seen you on here before, trust you are a contented invester. If you look at the recent posts here we have debated the information flow extensively. My view remains that GHT decided against issuing any further RNS Reach announcements, sticking to the regulatory RNS information flow. Yes this has caused a quieter period but not at the moment though!

amt, I fully expect the numbers to be achieved, I think they are a given, especially as we now have the Cantor forecast and of course associated BUY rating.

The more I reflect upon the Fourth Insurance win and First US Tier One Bank, the more convinced I am that it is not the numbers that are significant, it is the actual win and that they are 'break through' deals and a springboard to significant business. As always DYOR but I am one very encouraged, dare I say excited, bunny. I think the Cantor 180p could arrive very soon.

[amt] 30/12/2016 08:18

Why do they need to buy investor time. Why would they need to push the share price up.

[amt] 30/12/2016 07:59

Trading update 25 Jan ladt year. Expecting 17m revenue of which 7m Clareti excluding acquisition. Anything less would be dissapointing.

[schytalk] 29/12/2016 15:21

Well quite a surprise and I think a pleasant one at that

Three significant RNS announcements in two weeks over the Christmas period, a time when traditionally European financial services is 'on holiday' until the new year.

jadeticl3 I agree that currently the 'support' for this share is very much divided between those a of a glass half full and those of half empty. In my view this is very much due, as discussed extensively on here, to the GHT communication policy or lack there of.

The latest announcement is indeed a full RNS as confirmed by the Stock Exchange web site -

The only RNS Reach (information/non regulatory) made in 2016 was April 7th - Positive Start to 2016 with four new CTC customers - interestingly two of these wins were US based. GHT have therefore moved away from RNS Reach and only use the required/regulatory RNS. So things might be quiet, not lately though, but one can only assume that the business is trading according to forecast since if materially different an RNS/profits warning would be required.

You could be suspicious that the recent run of announcements have been timed, at the last minute, because of the December year end, a scramble for business. I take the view that since they are regulatory (and therefore material in maintaining an orderly market) then the timing is simply not under the control of GHT, they can only control the voluntary RNS Reach announcements (which they no longer make).

The query I have as regards contract wins is how GHT decide that they are material and hence create an RNS. The US bank sale of $1.1 million US over five years - $220k per year, is pretty close to the insurance win of £1.1 million over seven - $190k per year. GHT states that these are minimum expectations and surely this must be the case, since you would need a considerable customer base (certainly not the quoted 70 so far) to build a business of any scale. This indicates to me that GHT are announcing what they are required to do and not necessarily the true potential.

The latest win, only 3 business days before the year end, will apparently add to the planned (horrible and misleading word in my view, does this mean expected/forecast or recognised) revenue but it does not indicate (unlike the insurance win) the quantum. Given that CTC is going to be installed within the banks systems - it is not a cloud based solution - it will take time (certainly more than three days) to implement, so what can be legitimately 'planned' for 2016, perhaps some (POC?) services revenue already incurred. Again this is confusing and conflicting wording, could it be the announcement was rushed out using a draft of the insurance win?

richjp, I agree that deals completed late in the financial year normally involve some form of incentive, it needs to be good for both parties. When I last spoke to the company they were adamant that deals would be done on a commercial basis and that margins, particularly recurring revenue, would not be sacrificed. It could just be that the bank have been given 'first mover advantage' since I think all the big US players will be facing the challenges.

One of GHT's direct competitors is D+H (aka Fundtech) but they have suffered a significant profits fall and have embarked upon (an apparently successful) debt restructuring to reposition for the fintech challenges ahead. Further, I believe they have experienced some development challenges and overruns, could it be that this customer base is potential rich ground for GHT/CTC, is this the real reason behind the RNS, this US bank being the break through customer.

So what is the real importance of this deal since on numbers alone it is not mega - US break though customer, a global significant bank (G-SIB), expected revenue way above the minimum, a combination of all three? Hopefully all will be clearer once the January trading statement is released, I get the feeling of increased momentum and the potential for rapid growth, I am very much 'glass half run'.

[double double] 29/12/2016 08:23

I thought some people panicked and sold out.

If anyone has dealt with US banks or any other tbh, there are countless compliance, due diligence, legal bodies/parasites spread through many departments and continents and that is just to get a copy of the last minutes of a meeting! I dont think such large organisations would rush and pay in advance even in invoice just so that we can meet our 31 Dec deadline. I think things have move on.

The last few RNSs are probably more to do with Cantor than any other consideration.

Anyways, closed above the crucial 125p, next target 140.5p from around 2013.

[jadeticl3] 29/12/2016 07:47

There appear to be two camps on this site; one that believes the company would have met expectations without the two most recent (last two weeks of the year) contracts, so these are icing on the cake; the other that these two contracts were squeezed into 2016 in order for the company to meet "management expectations". I am expecting a report in late January (although would prefer richjp's suggestion of an early January report)when we should be able to calculate which is correct.
I am in the optimistic group.

[amt] 28/12/2016 20:38

Yes just in time. Perhaps will make the numbers now.

[double double] 28/12/2016 18:07

The contract values are actually not so different. £1.1M/7years and US$1.1M/5years. Perhaps another difference between this and last RNS is Cantor.

Perhaps finally they have got the message - dont keep shareholders in the dark!

The consequences of keeping shareholders in the dark and the share price depressed is you issue shares at 1.05p and not higher. I dont believe for a moment these last few contracts have been signed in December. Gresham have said they are booking some monies from these contracts this year. No one signs contract and hands over money before any work is done.

[richjp] 28/12/2016 17:39

Today's announcement was a pleasant surprise for me, although it seems a strange time to announce it as half the city will be away until the new year. Perhaps they have listened to the concerns that have been expressed on this message board.

This I feel is far more worthy of an RNS than the last time two weeks ago and I think is strategic enough to merit an RNS. The market also thinks so as well judging by the movement in the share price today.

They have announced higher value contracts in the past but as has been discussed here recently, maybe they are being more careful about setting too high a level of expectation. They do clarify that there is the possibility of more revenue from the customer if and when they expand their usage.

[double double] 28/12/2016 12:10

52 week high. This time next year that target of 180p will look silly I think. At some point these tier 1 contracts wins of minimum of £1.1m will become regular, if they are to be global leader.