Greenko Share Discussion Threads

[bikwik] 04/6/2015 16:07

Thanks for that seball. Hope you make money.

[bikwik] 04/6/2015 16:05

Note also as I said yesterday this bullish price action is occurring within a major support zone and after two downside targets have been achieved. Fundamental reason for a very nice rebound is - one of the oldest in the book - this stock has been sold down to an extreme level, fully discounting the fears of dilution, and should now begin to reverse higher.

Just my opinion of course. I don't need anyone else's view to make up my mind, Simon Thompson is of course stating the obvious. Of course you could argue I am stating the obvious as well. However, I have come to this view based on the technical and emotional state that this stock has and is now exhibiting.

Good luck to all.

[seball] 04/6/2015 15:58

Thanks Bikwik this is looking like its ready for a breakout and trend reversal over next few trading sessions.

[bikwik] 04/6/2015 15:53

I note that we are firmer today after yesterday's bullish candlestick and a strong increase in buying volume is helping the price pressure the falling wedge resistance line.

Here is the chart:


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[seball] 04/6/2015 14:42

Just read the coverage in the IC also. Interesting read, We could also see a sharp rise in share price as an agreement on conversion could come before July 1st which is date shares can be converted.

[seball] 04/6/2015 13:02

Looking extremely oversold here. Fundamentals in Greenko are sound. Good luck

[bikwik] 03/6/2015 17:29

Nice bull hammer candlestick today, occurring at exactly the right time. In major support zone from 2009 lows and after one for one parity with first down leg and also Fibonacci 1.618 projection of the first leg, based on the logarithmic chart. Also as we know, it is grossly oversold on daily, weekly and monthly RSI's. Bingo!

Sentiment now ripe for a rebound to get underway!


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[hutch_pod] 03/6/2015 13:28

Thanks bluerunner. My stomach is calmer today.

[bikwik] 03/6/2015 13:27

Here is the monthly chart with the monthly RSI. A picture is worth a thousand words!


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[bluerunner] 03/6/2015 12:27

For what it's worth, here is Simon Thompson's (IC) view, posted on the 'Hitting Target Prices' discussion board today (in response to a reader's query about GKO):

"I would point out that the share price is as oversold as it ever has been: the monthly RSI is below the level at the March 2009 bear market low, and the weekly and daily readings are in extreme oversold territory. The price is close to the support level at those March 2009 lows too, so any positive news on the conversion issue could lead to a very sharp bounce in the share price given the massively oversold conditions. I would hold on for now despite the stomach churning share price drop in recent weeks."

[bikwik] 03/6/2015 12:22

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[bikwik] 03/6/2015 12:21

Nice timing marvelman.

Ah yes, that magic word - "uncertainty" - a great driver of emotion in the market. Overrides almost everything else, common sense, logic etc. In this case it is clear that this emotion has taken the price too far on the downside and presented an opportunity for those detached from the "herd mentality" to take advantage.

Is this the bottom I wonder. Well, looks a reasonable bet i'd say. I do note that this latest drop has much more of a downward acceleration (typical trend ending characteristic) than the first one. See chart below. Also, this chart has a logarithmic scale so you can see how much more the price has fallen in percentage terms than the first. I also note that this latest downleg (on the log chart) is pretty close to a Fibonacci 1.618 ratio of the first. (44p is 1.618, so we have just exceeded that).

Plus of course this is within the major 38p-50p support zone, so another reason to suspect this is the bottom.

[marvelman] 03/6/2015 11:30

Bikwik

Bonds not repayable (or refinanced)for another few years and there is cash in the bank. This is all about the uncertainty of the dilution and what the master plan is by the 2 big investors holding 4 aces. I have just bought some at 40.7 on the basis that 40p was the line in the sand for value investors. Not much to lose from here on is my guess.

[bikwik] 03/6/2015 11:20

Seems to me that the market is pricing in this company as its going bust, when clearly that is not the case, quite the opposite in fact. I think the dilution issue, whilst valid, has been taken too far, way too far i'd say.

So when that fact is grasped then its bungee jump time! Any one else any thoughts?

[bikwik] 03/6/2015 10:58

Just to put the current situation in perspective. We are now into major support and have seen a second major downleg just over the 146p length of the first. Techically we appear to be in rebound territory.


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[hutch_pod] 03/6/2015 10:30

Well in this case they 'simply' need to resolve the uncertainty around the dilution issue (with the two forthcoming subsidiary equity conversions).

[tenapen] 03/6/2015 10:13

What is a company to do !. It can issue a positive statement that may lift the share price for a day or so. But as we saw after the crash of 08/ 09 it took the full force of Goverments and the law to stop the shorting attacks on companies and regain some stability. GKO will be OK, the shorters will get their blood and then go on to the next victim.

[hutch_pod] 03/6/2015 10:02

And it's sad, because management should be grasping the stick and whacking the fly.

[marvelman] 03/6/2015 09:32

Yes Dr_Smith....investing as a blind man waves a stick at a fly.

[dr_smith] 03/6/2015 09:17

I like your analogy Cyfran.
I like what the co is doing, but the lack of transparency between sister co's and how / when they would merge etc meant I couldn't monitor with clarity so sold out.
My impression is that the management team are effectively not the top of a company tree for companies sole benefit, but a floating unit, and investors invest in them, not the rest of the employees and assets, and use that team to set up sister co's and get them rolling before moving on.
If you are a mega singapore co with hotline to management (and/or have your own man on the spot) that's fine, but for PI's trying to second guess whats going on to structure /SP wise it is bad news.

We buy/sell shares in GKO, not the 'deals' the management team do as side/sister projects.

All IMO.

[marvelman] 03/6/2015 09:08

No let up in the attack on this share. The ruthlessness of the markets can never be over estimated. Someone has a plan which surely is nearing its conclusion.

[cyfran101] 02/6/2015 23:47

I'm also interested in buying in once the dilution issue has been quantified and resolved.

At the moment it's like a comedy sketch where GKO keeps falling everyone is screaming but the fall has lasted so long that people have stopped screaming to look around before screaming again.

Can't fall forever though!

[marvelman] 02/6/2015 16:37

Neither could I phowdo but it seems someone has. I wonder how much of this is shorting on behalf of vested interests who would want to see the share price as low as possible.I would love to get back in here but there the silence from the company is deafening as regards why their share price is at this level and what they intend to do about it.

[phowdo] 02/6/2015 09:10

Double bottom around 38p level?
Watching with some interest but couldnt decipher the potential dilution and debt effects on current equity.


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