Greenko Share Discussion Threads

[phowdo] 30/10/2013 11:01

Perhaps finally clearing out that seller thats been sat on this for past 8 months.
Would like to see a close and hold above 140p.

[banking1] 30/10/2013 09:10

big boys increased their holding - surprised this isnt running at 175p given what progress they have made since we were above 175p

[henryatkin] 29/10/2013 11:36

paleje...thanks, reading the 2012 annual results confirms that. There was also a small share dilution but total assets increased:

Financial Review (July 2012)
For the full year, the Company's revenue was €36.9 million (2011: €44.4 million), with generation of 769.8GWh (2011: 807.6GWh). EBITDA, a key performance indicator for Greenko, increased to €27.3 million (2011: €25.2 million), despite the financial performance being impacted by adverse currency movements and a weak market for CERs. Profit after tax was flat at €11.5 million (2011: €11.4 million) as EBITDA growth was offset by lower interest income. Basic EPS was 6.95 cents (2011: 7.44 cents) reflecting the impact of the shares issued in June 2011 disproportionately diluting the minority interest. Profit after tax of €2.0 million (2011: €2.6 million) was attributed to minority shareholders, mainly Global Environment Emerging Markets Fund III ("GEEMF"), which invested in the Group at the Mauritius subsidiary level in 2009, while profit after tax attributable to equity shareholders improved to €9.5 million (2011: €8.9 million).

The Group's Plant, Property and Equipment and Intangible Assets increased by 42 per cent to €305.8 million (2011: €215.2 million), primarily due to a significant increase in construction activity. The funds raised during the year were deployed in various projects under implementation and the cash (including deposits) balance at the end of the year was €63.1 million (2011: €37.6 million). Post the year end, ACMK Enterprises Ltd, a company controlled by Anil Chalamalasetty and Mahesh Kolli, two of Greenko's Executive Directors, committed to invest £5 million into new shares at 225 pence per share. Documentation is underway and the Company expects to complete the transaction shortly. Total borrowing at the end of the year was €153.1 million (2011: €82.8 million) and as of the end of June, Greenko had approximately €252 million of committed but undrawn debt facilities in place. In the year, it also drew US$60 million from the Standard Chartered and GE commitments, with a further US$60 million still available to be drawn. As at 31 March 2012, the Company had a stock of 346,300 Certified Emission Reductions ("CERs") (2011: 109,177).

[paleje] 29/10/2013 09:40

Don't rely on my take Henry but think currency and intentional delaying CER sales because of poor market conditions were part of the reasons, may have been more factors you can access detail from their RNS:-

[henryatkin] 29/10/2013 08:57

Can any long term holders here tell me why revenues jumped so high in 2011 and then fell from 2011 to 2012? it would be much appreciated if someone can answer.

[paleje] 14/10/2013 15:00

Simon Thompson tipped them again with a 200p medium target, Arden Partners apparently have a 245p target.

[phowdo] 14/10/2013 12:22

Have we been tipped somewhere? Delayed reaction to the trading update?

BTW that "GE invests $50M" news is from October 2011, google sometimes gets its years mixed up with the alerts.

[par555] 10/9/2013 20:26

More pain to come here I feel before us long term holders get our reward !

[banking1] 04/9/2013 09:21

i think the basic fundamentals of the company are extremely strong. the asset base is growing by the day and the megawatt output targets are being met. i dont think personally we will have to wait long before the price corrects itself. only wish I had more - i origannly bought at 65-75p and sold at 150-180p but the holding was substantial - which i unfortunately cannot now afford to buy back!

[phowdo] 30/8/2013 12:42

Bounced off the trendline

[cyfran101] 28/8/2013 21:14

I posted a link (see post 550). They filed for an injunction but not sure what the latest is.

[937huff26] 28/8/2013 11:37

What is the margin of error? what degree of accuracy? Is the law in place or is it being debated? because on the face of it this is madness, I will bet they have to fill a form out each day that takes 25 hours to complete and has to be hand delivered in triplicate, if this is not in the original contract then?

[gswredland] 28/8/2013 08:26

Thanks Vig

[vigneron1] 27/8/2013 21:09

Indian wind energy companies are contesting a new law introduced by the Indian government. This forces them to forecast power generated daily, with fines if the forecast is inaccurate.This may be contributing to the decline along with weak currency and other economic worries in India.

[banking1] 27/8/2013 15:07

ps i reckon we will see a move in price up from current levels anyway. Cant see it closing below 115p but i could be wrong!

not a huge holding 5000 shares!

[banking1] 27/8/2013 15:05

hi all

thx dr smith. increased holding by 20%. Not down alot at these levels.

The company basics remain the same (as far as im aware) so its weak markets and potentially a small number of sellers pulling the share price down.

Lets see how it goes!

[phowdo] 27/8/2013 13:41

Id agree with that cestnous.
I think its also this persistent seller has done damage too. Maybe its a fund thats had extra redemptions and needs to aggressively sell now. They've been lining the orderbook with DMA asks for some time with only market makers on the bid. This seller could absolutely thump the shareprice as it is so illiquid.

I'll run my (much reduced) position but dont want to add any further exposure to EM/overseas companies so wont be adding (except a trade if it gets silly cheap...)

[dr_smith] 27/8/2013 13:29

Banking1,
When you have a promising long term share it's hard to hold yourself back from having too many eggs in one basket, so please bear in mind your overall portfolio balance/risk spreading when topping up.
Said as polite reminder of what you know already ;-)
I'm already above my average quota for GKO for a balanced portfolio.

[cestnous] 27/8/2013 13:24

It's the withdrawal from emerging markets and the weak rupee imo. Got out on the last spike. If it goes through 115 its out of its weak trading channel and could go a lot lower. All just imo.

[dr_smith] 27/8/2013 13:22

Well, the rupee to pound does seem around 10% worse than 7-8 days ago, and in absence of other news, can only conclude it's the influencing factor, though as mentioned, I'm not aware of why this should be relevant for GKO.
Phowdo, re "the seller" are you referring to a particular big seller you've seen on trading data, or just the general context. I don't have level 2 access, but can only see a small number of low volume trades.
If there are no big trades going on, then a small number of sellers could drive the price down, given that this isn't a high volume trading stock.

[banking1] 27/8/2013 12:31

i wonder whats causing the drop - @ 1.15p ill be buying another block of these - imo they should see closer to £2 this year

[dr_smith] 27/8/2013 11:53

Hi Huff,

It's quiet on this BB.. 'no news is good news' as they say.

It's the same co, with same costs and income, so I don't see ex.rates as a a concern as growth potential, the key driver of share price, remains the same.

As reports are in £, then some figures may look down, but typically I would expect there would be a note on the lines:
i) x% up ignoring ex.rates
ii) ex.rate shouldn't affect shareholders, as revenue and costs are in the same country and they used fixed price contracts.

I think I've seen a statement on lines of ii) above either on a report or an article but can't find it at moment.

Potentially payment of a div would mean going through ex.rates, but AFAIK divs aren't presently being paid.

[phowdo] 27/8/2013 11:42

I make the trendline support to be 115p.
Looks like the seller is becoming a bit more aggressive prepared to hit the market makers on the bid...

[937huff26] 27/8/2013 11:09

Given the fall in the Rupee, I guess profits will be well down unless a lot of stuff comes online, will it find support at 120?