Great Portland Estates Share Discussion Threads

[goldthorpe] 07/9/2004 09:46

In the last few days the price has gone up but 'Trades' has indicated mainly sells. Are the market-makers trying to tempt out potential sellers and 'book-build'.
g

[joekoe] 05/9/2004 21:26

The valuations are made quarterly, it is true, however my point was that when the quarterly valuation is released, it is 3 months out of date. E.g. the valuation for end June will be available at the end of September.

[goldthorpe] 05/9/2004 18:50

I'm intrigued that it's all gone very quiet with regard to Wagamama which wasn't mentioned in the announcement.

On the NAV issue, most of the GPE investments are unquoted and so valuations are based on a multiple of last reported profits or original cost. There's no point evaluating the NAV frequently since these won't change from day to day.

[joekoe] 04/9/2004 23:34

It's amusing to notice that the RNS issued on 3 Sep about the Maplin sale has at the bottom of it a reference to the .doc file on the F: drive which is called "Wagamama announcement 2 Sep.doc". Was there suposed to be an RNS about Wagamama, or did someone just name this doc incorrectly?

It's pretty daft to include the file name in an RNS anyway.

On a more serious note, why does it take GPE 3 months to calculate NAV? Presumably the asset valuations are done by the same bozo that is responsible for file names.

[goldthorpe] 27/8/2004 15:14

No.
I should think (or hope rather) they won't be significant compared to the
uplift in Wagamama and Maplin (4.7% and 8.9% of portfolio in 2003 report).

Standard Brands (4.5%) had a setback last year, with a halving of profit.
This may have continued. The t/o and profit at Jane Norman (3.9%) increased
between 2002 and 2003. Hopefully, this trend continues.

Computacenters share price is down about 30% compared to value in the report.
If GPE holds the same number, that's a reduction of about 1% in the entire portfolio. However, GPE has been selling.

Intermediate Capital (3.9%) is down slightly from the Dec 2003 valuation, but
GPE has been gradually selling these also.

28% of the portfolio is in funds, there are less transparent in the Annual
Report.

Anyway, we'll see, but I think that yesterday's share price reflects what the
market thinks about the overall change in NAV.
g.

[raxzi] 27/8/2004 11:26

goldthorpe

quote from the end of the press release.
" ...and to make provisions against other investments that are underperforming."

Any idea what negative cost the provisions would amount to?

[goldthorpe] 26/8/2004 14:23

My estimate is selling Maplin for about 240m pounds gives an uplift in its valuation in the GPE books of about 240x0.2 - 17.2 = 30.8 million or about 32p per GPE share, excluding selling costs of course.

I don't know what's happening to the Wagamama sale. One buyer pulled out, but perhaps they may still consider an IPO or similar.

I think the recent Paperchase sale gave a decent return on investment

g.

[goldthorpe] 27/6/2004 20:08

SCORPIO13, thanks for that. I keep wondering: if several other private equity firms are bidding for Wagamama, then should Graphite keep it for the time being and float it later? Perhaps they have other more profitable avenues for the cash to be received? Anyone from Graphite Capital around?
Regards.
G

[scorpio13] 25/6/2004 10:26

June 23, 2004

Wagamama in talks on buyout
By Dominic Walsh







WAGAMAMA, the Japanese-style noodle bar chain, is in advanced negotiations with Hutton Collins, the investment banking boutique, over a secondary buyout worth an estimated £60 million.

The company, which is controlled by Graphite Capital, the private equity firm, put a planned flotation on the Alternative Investment Market on hold this month, after receiving approaches from several venture capital firms.

Although neither party would comment, it is understood that Hutton Collins has emerged as the front-runner in the auction process. It is believed to be offering about £50 million and would assume about £8 million of debt.

The emergence of Hutton Collins is a surprise, given the strong interest in Wagamama from powerful private equity groups such as Apax Partners. The firm is better known as a mezzanine finance provider, having been involved in last year's acquisition of PizzaExpress by TDR Capital and Capricorn Ventures International.

Wagamama, which was founded in 1992, operates 24 restaurants in Britain. It also has an overseas franchise business, which consists of restaurants in Sydney, Dublin, Amsterdam and Dubai. A second restaurant is to open in Amsterdam next week.

The company is shortly expected to report a surge in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to about £5.5 million from £4.6 million in the year to the end of April, while turnover is said to have increased to about £33 million from £25.3 million.

A sale to Hutton Collins would crystallise big gains for Ian Neill, Wagamama's chief executive, and two fellow executives who between them have a 13 per cent slice of the company.

[goldthorpe] 14/4/2004 11:15

My back of envelope sums regarding Maplin Electronics:
I have yet to see GPE's full 2003 accounts. However, on the basis of the GPE 2002 accounts, and Maplin's latest results, I reckon that GPE's 21% holding in Maplin must now be valued at about 17M. But that is on a multiple of operating profits of only 5.2. So given that Maplin's turnover has just grown 30% in a year, and its profits by 40%, a multiple of over 20 would surely be justified if it was floated soon (giving a PEG factor still less than one). So (ignoring flotation expenses):

* floating Maplin at a profits multiple of 15 would increase the value of GPE's holding from about 17M to about 49M, an increase over present valuation of 32M or roughly 34p per issued GPE share

* a multiple of 20 would mean an increase of about 53p per share,

* a multiple of 30 (still a PEG less than one) gives a NAV increase of about 89p per GPE share.

I wonder if flotation is on the cards, and if so will it be heartily taken up, in the next year or two?

btw, I think GPE price fall today is because it goes ex-divi by 4.3p per share.

[goldthorpe] 14/4/2004 10:08

from Yorkshire Post on 8 April 2004:


Maplin steps up expansion drive

Electronics group to open more stores as profits soar
MAPLIN Electronics plans to open 75 stores across the UK over the next four years, creating more than 1,100 jobs.
Greg Wright

The Barnsley-based specialist electronics and consumer technologies retailer revealed its expansion plans yesterday as it delivered record full-year profits and sales.
The company, which has 83 stores in the UK and Ireland and employs 1,400 staff, posted annual pre-tax profits of £17.9m in 2003, a 40 per cent increase on 2002's figure of £12.5m. Turnover rose by 29.7 per cent to £99.2m.
Managing director Graham Caldwell said: "Our continued success stems from our relentless drive to be in touch with our customers and their needs.
"We are providing the right products at the right price and targeting them at the right people. We continue to concentrate on simplifying our business model and delivering the best possible value for money.
"We continue to cut costs in relation to our outstanding growth and deliver greater shareholder value."
Mr Caldwell said the firm planned to open 13 stores in the UK this year, with another 17 next year, 20 in 2006 and 25 in 2007.
New stores are planned in towns including Solihull, Cambridge and Blackpool and each will employ around 15 staff. Maplin plans to operate from 250 stores in the UK by 2014.
The best seller out of Maplin's 12,000 products during 2003 was the Athlon XP2000 processor, while new technologies such as the mobile AC/DC fridge also sold well.
Growth was experienced across all categories with sales of hobbies & electronics rising 25.49 per cent, sound & vision up 35.72 per cent and computers and components recorded 32.92 per cent growth.
Total mail order volumes in 2003 rose by 23.6 per cent and internet sales soared by 48.4 per cent.
Maplin's customer base is largely male – but the company's research showed that in the past four years the amount of electronic equipment bought by women has risen from 3 per cent to 11 per cent.
Commercial director David O'Reilly said: "We have worked very hard with our partners to reduce costs in the supply chain and maximise profits.
"Overall, the margin contribution increased at a greater rate than sales this year and that is a fantastic result."
Mr Caldwell added: "It has been very important for us to keep our costs under control whilst taking advantage of our growth in terms of sales and profitability. Our operating profit as a result is 40 per cent up on last year."
Mr O'Reilly said only three of the 13 stores opened in 2003 could be classed as "traditional" high street, the rest were in retail parks with larger merchandising areas.
He added: "All of the recent openings are on target to payback in under two years."
Mr Caldwell said Maplin had enjoyed large growth since the business underwent an MBO backed by Graphite Capital in 2001.
Mr Caldwell said: "We realigned the business and centralised the operational infrastructure to our HQ at Barnsley. We developed our product range to become more consumer focused and we continually improve the standard of customer service we offer. We have accelerated the store launch programme and updated the store-merchandising model. We have stripped out inefficiency and simplified a number of business processes.
"We have continually minimised our costs in relation to our growth and delivered greater shareholder value. Consequently, we're celebrating record profits.
"We plan to continue to grow our business using this strategy to increase our sales and profits still further."

[e-mail]

08 April 2004

[meganxmas] 04/4/2004 20:43

A few paragraphs in the Sunday Times fastest growing 100 UK companies section about Maplin Electronics ... all looks pretty positive. Sorry don't have link as read it in my hard copy.

[goldthorpe] 19/2/2004 10:14

Following purse's posting yesterday I got out the last GPE annual report (2002)and looked at the valuations of the top holdings.

Wagamama looks very impressive: see their website detailing their openings over the last year. GPE holds 38% of the equity. If the IPO raises say 45M that gives a value to GPE of about 17.1M against 9.1M in the report (original cost 5.9M): an increase of 8M or about 3.4% on net assets. Unless I've done my sums wrong I don't think it's 25p per share, though I'd love to be corrected!

The direct holding in International Capital Group has increased: 8.56 per share in the report to 11.55 at present.

Maplin Electronics last profit is 17.5M (turnover greater than 100M) against 12.6M profit in the report.

The Hicks, Muse etc Europe Fund is busy building its food brand. (Interestingly, the report says that GPE had invested 25.5M and received 10.2M of distributions.)

Perhaps the ICG Mezzanine Fund 2000 is doing better than is was ("performing satisfactorily") in the report.

Computacenter is 4.50 per share against 2.80 in the report.

I don't know about HLF insurance and Standard Brands, but insurance premia have been generally healthy.

All in all, I think we could see a healthy uplift in the GPE NAV in the next annual report.

(I have a fairly substantial holding in GPE via PEPs, ISAs and F&C Pension Fund)

[joekoe] 19/2/2004 00:44

The recent rise is because Wagamama has announced that it is considering an IPO and is estimated to be valued at £40-£50m. I calculate this will add appx 25p NAV to GPE, does anyone else have a view on the NAV increase?

[purse] 18/2/2004 10:00

Up again today, who woke them up....
It needs to carry on rising for a few weeks before I'm going to be happy...

[corrientes] 15/2/2004 19:06

Blxxxy hope so.What's the holding that's doing it ?

[wedged] 15/2/2004 14:24

Decent rise in the past week on good volume. Is patience about to be rewarded ?

[corrientes] 29/1/2004 17:10

Look at who'se in charge !

[purse] 09/1/2004 13:15

Unix

I must admit I'm tempted it just sits there doing nothing all week long.

[unix] 08/1/2004 16:58

Well I decided to sell after all - but good luck to those that continueto hold. Interesting large volume today? Anyway as ever, DYOR

[unix] 02/1/2004 21:21

I used to have a monthly investment plan in this when it was F&C Enterprise. I stopped contributing about 2 years ago and it has continued to disappoint. I think it is time to take the money and run!